dswx

Yep. I did not see your post until this morning so did not post the 12z Euro. HRRR is actually good beyond 4 hours. More so in warm season for t-storms.

The upper low is not as impressive as last week's storm. Weaker deformation. Bummer.

Yes. I was responding to wasnow215's question. My point was how the short-range HRRR was now notably lower.

8z HRRR Kuchera (posted) has 1 inch for RIC. 6z NAM Kuchera has 3.5 (not posted) while IBM's Deep Thunder model has 3.9 (can't post; Deep Thunder is not Kuchera).

That is a 10:1 ratio.

Snow totals:

At this point, Sunday afternoon, I am not impressed by anything I am seeing for metro RIC. :-( I'll be surprised at anything over an inch in the city, if that. Would love to be wrong. Obviously a better chance for a bit more west of the city.

I see different Kuchera snowfall amounts for the 12z GFS at pivotalweather: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031012&fh=66&r=us_ma&dpdt=

For anyone in the metro Richmond area: The next meeting of the Central Virginia Chapter of the American Meteorological Society will be 6:00 pm, Thursday, February 1, 2018, at The Grapevine Restaurant, 11055 Three Chopt Rd, Henrico, Virginia. Our speaker will be Branco Vlacich, Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT). His topic will be "VDOT Winter Storm Preparation". The Central Virginia Chapter of the American Meteorological Society meetings are welcome to all with an interest in meteorology (professional meteorologists and weather enthusiasts). Although encouraged, chapter members do not need to be members of the American Meteorological Society. The meeting agenda (subject to change) will be: 1. Welcome/Introductions 2. Chapter elections. Nominees are: For President, Peter Effertz, Meteorologist, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality For Vice President, Russell Harper, Dominion Energy For Secretary/Treasurer, Dan Salkovitz, Meteorologist, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality 3. Chapter constitution (required to be submitted to the American Meteorological Society) 4. Chapter Facebook page update - Peter Effertz 3. Speaker: Branco Vlacich, Virginia Department of Transportation, "VDOT Winter Storm Preparation". 4. Topic/date for next meeting? Please plan to come early (5:15-5:30 pm) and have dinner at The Grapevine. Menu: https://richmondgrapevine.com/menu/ If you know someone who would like to be included in chapter email notifications please let me know. Please feel free to invite others and/or distribute this announcement although the venue (The Grapevine's back room) is limited to about 20 people for now. RSVP to me please.

RIC made it down to -3.

Just 2.5 inches measured on the north-side of Richmond, 3 miles from downtown. :-(

On Saturday I measured 3.5 inches in Bellevue on the northside of Richmond on a grassy surface. Very little to none on the sidewalk. That is probably the biggest difference I can recall between the grass and sidewalk.