Huffwx

Jan 5-6 event = 2.5 then buckets of ZR

Jan 10-11 event = 2.8

Feb 11-12 event = 5 total with 3.8 snow and 1.2 sleet before bucks of ZR

Feb 19-20 event. 2.0 round 1, 1.5 with ULL passage for 3.5 total. 

13.8 on season

Near climo which is 15-16 ish now and fading fast. 

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Shut off like a switch. 1.8" yesterday and 1.8" today. 2 completely different experiences but hit 3.6" total. Blue sky is in the distance. Should be good photo ops here shortly. 

I'm not really that close to climo. 9.3" on the season and modern climo maps tag this elevated area with 13" around smith mtn. I still give this winter a B-B+ grade based mostly on the feels. Multiple cold events, plenty of snow cover days, and lots of fun tracking.  If i can hit 13" it's an A-. Below norm DJF with multiple events it's not normal or average. It's pretty rare. 

We pulled a 2 yesterday and 1.5 this AM up here in Forest. Fine high ratio powder this AM that melted at the first crack of sun. 3.5 total not too shabby. 

On 1/11/2025 at 8:57 AM, Ephesians2 said:

1.11.2025 - 2.5" 

Total: 5.0"

Another Lynchburger.. I'm in Forest. 2.5 then 2.8.

Total- 5.3

About. 2.5 snow and sleet in Forest, VA then tons of ZR.. had a departing snow shower late afternoon. Would have preferred snow but the trees look phenomenal. Pics not catching the full glimmer from the sun..

29 and light snow down here in Forest, VA

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Were any of the 2009/10 real coldies 

Hey Howard, I'm doing well- I work FULLTIME telehealth  now chatting with my clients. Pretty fun-- 

I still think about your legendary parking job at G&M's crabcakes-haha. How's life treating you? 

58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter what happens, the WAA piece looks pretty good for the MA (somewhere) not including my yard lol. Things get muddy with the mid and upper lows but that front part has all the ingredients in place for a hot and heavy stripe. Prob not real fluffy though unless mid/uppers crank a little when mid level winds shift. 

Not feelin too excited here. Maybe an inch or 3 at best before inevitable ptype problems. Pretty good cad area here though. Especially on our land east of Smith mtn. NE surface flow banks up pretty good and the topography between Smith mtn and Gretna is a forrested bowl. Doesn't scour easy as all. Considering this is my 3rd winter spending time here and I've never seen a plow or the grass covered.... I'll take what I can get and be happy AF. 

 

I'm up in Forest but also have a house in Rocky Mount. Welcome to the hood. You picked the non snowy side of the lake.  Weve been looking to consolidate near the and I've already states Goodview was my preferred location:) Marginal events lake warmth will hurt..

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Hey you!

Hey now, Howard. It's been a minute.

9 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

this really isnt an anafrontal event anymore, the reason why we're getting sm snow on recent runs is bc of a secondary coastal snow forming and undergoing surface cyclonegenesis which throws moisture nw back into the cold sector, this isnt cold front trying to catch up to precip

This. That 500 low goes negative a low forms over South Carolina

19 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

FWIW the nam has now closed off the energy coming down into the plains on this run, taking a step towards the gfs. 

 

Most won't remember but when the Jan 2000 storm passed over KC upper air vort (like this one will be close) they had a snow event that caused the icy roads that lead to the car wreck that ending up killing Derrick Thomas, albeit 2 weeks later. Morbid, i get it but I always connect the two. 

14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looks great for getting outdoor projects done with no bugs and nice temps. We are rarely wetter than normal in a Nina. Looking forward to it.

 

Not that the reverse psychology works, but it seems the Euro and UK seasonal outlooks were promising in the 2 of past 3 winters. I guess last winter had some great features (-nao) with no blocking, so who knows.  That be a super warm winter though.. like you said. 

NYC Central Park has a 40 inch winter and someone complains about it-- Wow. 

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

That flat ridge in the GOM isn't helping anyone. 

3 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there.

Pretty warm out in front-- despite the NAO and lower heights near 50/50. IT's a timing issue where cold air is coming at the same time as the storm. Could end up 300 miles north or south depending on timing. 

10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Didn't we have legit arctic air with that one?  I think I remember smoking cirrus up here in the DC area and it being like 20 degrees for the high.  This one with a very marginal airmass doesn't seem it could produce such a wide swath of heavy snow, 

I live just outside Lynchburg. Was 40 the day before and the day after. Snowed all day with temps in the mid 20's. We did have perfect timing with a HP sliding through but the air was more dry than cold. Take out the precip and we would have hit 40 that Sunday as well. 

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We had a nice AO block in Dec though but it was centered northwest of a true NAO block.  I respect Tombo and others who are saying it’s just higher heights but I respectfully disagree with that take. First of all it’s impossible to see the ridge in the height lines past 12 days or so due to timing and location differences between members. One might have the block centered over Greenland. Another Baffin. Another Hudson Bay. The ridge meanders around. Those differences smooth it out. Then you add in the outlier members and seeing a ridge signature at that range is not happening. But at the same time those kinds of + anomalies would be unlikely without a ridge somewhere. If it was weak + heights maybe. But to get those kinds of positives at those ranges given the smoothing and outliers would be almost impossible without a ridge somewhere on most members.  Also we wouldn’t get lower heights across the CONUS with that pac if there wasnt true blocking. Add in the fact that the control has a true block and when I look at most operationals and individual members they do have blocking the evidence suggests that’s not it.  I respect their hypothesis but I don’t see evidence of that. 
 

I think the simplest answer is the best. The pac is less then ideal. We begin the period with all of N AM torched. Despite a really good h5 look it thinks we never recover in that regard. History says domestic cold should work in that look. But the eps weekly members obviously think it’s just not going to be cold enough to keep storms from cutting.  I think it’s wrong. I’ve seen it run too warm at range. We’ll see 

Ji showed a graph where the NAO wasn't negative.  I said a few times heights were higher Azorors were high as well and that is how they measure ( or use to)

A lot of gray on on the calculations  but agree base is warmer and PAC isn't helping. 

In early 02, we had blocking and it got colder as heights lowered. Had a suppressed storm Richmond to RDU.. maybe 12 at RDU again.

55 minutes ago, Ji said:

i wonder if we are failing in our -NAO pattern because dont have a -NAO

 

Heights were high near Azores as well.. 

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s the H5 from the end of January 2000. 

We have high heights over Greenland but the block extends to near the Azores. 

Had about .3 at my place in Forest. My office is right behind WSET TV- the official measuring station for Lynchburg. They were shut out last year for the first time ever (We had .3 in Forest last year too) Not sure what fell here at my office counts as more than a trace. 

BWI: 14
DCA:9
IAD:17
RIC:5

Tiebreaker ( LYH):  12.5

Just now, Ji said:

that storm was nuts...so picturesqe...heaviest wet snow ive ever seen. think it all melted the next day lol

Yeah, only one day out of school with 15 inches where I was. If this vort passes to anyones south, they would get some crazy rates for a while. 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

we need @psuhoffman to tell us how this can happen and why it wont....does anyone have any information about the FEb 88 storm...it was 53 degrees  before the storm and we got a foot of snow with temps in the 36-37 range

That was Feb 87. Temps hit upper 40s where i was but were at 37 when it started and hoovered around 32 all storm. Was a triple phaser actually. 

About 1.25 just west of Lynchburg.  Crappy ratio..7 to 1 maybe but roads are coveres.  Sleet in Roanoke off and on.  Hopefully we hold out a few hours. 

Jan 30 - Feb 10 would get 99% of the votes. 

That's high considering the RIC and SW posters.  Jan 87 was much better..

I don't recall when the watches for Feb. '87 were issued.  The first I heard of an impending storm was late Sunday afternoon.  We were playing basketball (outside, so that should tell you a major snowstorm commencing in less than 6 hours was a bit surprising) when someone mentioned it.  The rates that night were intense.

I raked leaves that afternoon. I remember calling the weatherline that RICH HITCHENS worked Sunday am after a sleepover over and was shocked there was a WsWatch Sunday AM.. Saturday PM had a chance of rain or snow Sunday night. 

Around the DC area it went from a 1-3" or 2-4" snow to about a foot or more and if I recall correctly we had the whole week off of school due to power lines down from the weight of the snow. It was definitely not expected to be such a big event at least here.

Gotcha. I guess the 00 storm to me was such a drastic shift from no storm out to see to BIG event in 6 hours. Now, Feb 22 87 was actually a triple phaser if I'm not misaken and it bottomed out 965 east of ACY?? So, I guess that was a big miss in that context but more lead time where I was in a lesser model era resonates with me.