Regan

Eric Webb just tweeted about the HRRR being on to something. 

19 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

FWIW, the wind maps seem to be overdone for everyone outside of the center core. I never got a TS force gust here in N ATL like the maps said, unless that is supposed to come later.

I have no idea on that. What I do know is that the core is to pass over the Triangle area.  And the public is practically ignoring this whole thing. I think it’s Flo apathy. But this will be windier. Idk how people survive these days. 

With this said by news media and others behind the scenes, to be worse/ more noticeable than with Florence, I think a lot of Piedmont’er and especially Triangle folks are about to be surprised. Many business and university systems (like NCSU), that closed with Florence are open for business so far. Not really sure why. I think there’s a lack of knowledge and I have definitely seen it on social media. People are still somehow completely unaware. People were shocked when schools closed. Unleashing tons of confusion.  The Triangle nearly felt Florence. The gusting wasn’t bad. This could be double. 

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I get the reasons not to buy it hook line and sinker.  It would be nice to at least have someone acknowledge the possibility of it. It would be one thing if it were only the 84 hr NAM showing it, along with 25” of snow.

I completely agree.  I have literally storm/snow seen Fishel and crew forecasting. Going slowly over the details. Except when it comes to wind/ or inches with snow, the speed up really fast to hurry through it. It’s a clear sign they don’t know. But I wish they’d lay out the possiblities. I’m expecting the minimum of 20/30 sustained and 40-50 or even more long gusts. But I worry about the people uninformed or ones that just hear it as nothing. I hope it’s not over 50 gust in Raleigh. That’s bad enough. Especially long ones 

I think what Wral is suggesting is a good start and can cause enough damage. Yes we could get more. Michael isn’t playing by the rules, but I just hope people take it seriously. 

Wral is sticking to the 20-30 sustained and 40-60gusting and avoiding too much detail. 

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Fishel didn’t say one word about backside winds in the 6 pm segment.

They are really going out of their way to not talk much about the wind potential around here.  Hope they’re right.

When they go out of their way to not discuss it it’s because they don’t know and that is not great. We will see. 

I think anything is possible given how long he’s holding on to his energy last when they expected. 

12 minutes ago, Solak said:

This confuses me.

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Smithfield
    - Clayton

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

I don’t get this because everything seems to be going up. 

Well, maybe Brad isn’t going off the warning just being placed in Wake. Did I read that right?  The RAH discussion suggested they are watching for potentials for higher gusts. 

I havent seen any uodates by him by him on twitter regarding winds. Only early this morning on his video. 

5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh.

Some tv met tried to explain why Wake isn’t in warning/watch criteria yet. Doesn’t mean we won’t see high winds just not as likely for 1 min or more at a time. I didn’t know that. Regardless, I worry it is downplayed and when they decide to up the possibility of more we have little time. I am seeing some generic 50mph markers were before it was 40 and 45. Baby steps manybe?

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

I’d be surprised if RAH doesn’t expand the TS warning for much of the CWA. Seems like a no brainer to me.

I think so. I am noticing some baby steps up. Now the news is comfortable saying 50mph. I think it’ll be a little at a time as they see how he behaves on land and also not to cause hysteria. 

Yeah. I think it’s a big deal. Personally. Especially when I’m seeing most people aren’t taking it seriously at all and aren’t prepped. Tv is telling them 15-30mph. Maybe 45mph but low chance. Then, there’s the ones not watching at all and when I post an update on Facebook they are shocked or think it’s not coming. I get the whole “survival of the fittest”. But I think these types of winds are a big deal. 

I think we’d best be ready for up to 40mph and 80mph in central and eastern NC. Based on TV and then on runs.  I guess they have to wait and see what happens to him once he gets inland some and see how he behaves. Doesn’t give us up here a lot of time at that point to prep. I’m telling you most people aren’t taking this seriously because the tv isn’t. People are laughing at this right now. Flo wasn’t a biggie for them and they think is nothing because it’s in the gulf as opposed to on our coast. 

4 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

This is a insane run of the HRRR which actually did really well with the winds in Matthew which was a similar transitioning system over NC.....but if you take the run till the last frame it has formed a incredible band on the west side and has 70-80 knt winds ( obviously overdone right????) in that band and drags it from CLT to RDU and I am sure as the runs get further out in time it will keep this all the way to the coast, but even if you knock 10-15 knts off those numbers it still 50-70 mph.....I wonder how much if any merit the local NWS offices will give this especially since almost all the other models have 50-80mph winds over central and eastern NC

 

Zero so far. Still being told 15, 20-30s. Maybe 45. Nothing more than Flo. I’m wondering this myself. If not people could be caught off guard. 

2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yeah and what sticks out in my mind is how rare it is to have winds like this there...god knows how long it's been so there are going to be a lot of old trees coming down, never mind the rest. 

sorry to hear...that sucks.

insane. now close to andrew territory. 

12z hrrr is showing some interesting high gusts of 55 to 60 knots over the upstate/western nc, That would be something else if it verifies.  Shows 45 to 50 knots here. (and brings whats left of the eyewall through here. 

So when I wonder will we all be warned. We are only being lead to think 15-30 maybe 45mph here in central Nc. 

926.8mb

Well Wake is not as of yet in the watch. Even though they are says we will have winds in that range here. I still wonder how much higher it could be.  

Right but one could assume that the inland tracked forecasted weakening should be adjusted some from 2 days ago when they though landfall at 125mph and now with expected 145mph+. 

I’m really wondering if this monster will weaken as fast as they are suggesting now. I too having seen any changes in their predictions even though it’s 20+ higher mph. 

Really windy in west Raleigh. Power flickers. I’m sure we will lose it at some point. Yards are littered. Things are hitting the roof. Getting nervous about tornados. Watched the Rocky Mount warning inch this way. 

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The NHC stated that some areas are already seeing 4' of surge and high tide isn't until 11PM for those areas. 

A long ways to go with this.

Things are progressing. Forecasts here in Raleigh have changed with the expansion of Flo.  Not happy about possibly seeing 53mph gusting here. Our news caster came on and told us things are changing potentially and we have a better chance now of worse than they thought. That’s it wouldn’t be as bad as Fran in the Triangle, but die to the prolonged period and rains it’ll be significant in areas. Especially just to the south parts. 

Nah he said even near the airport could see 53mph. I think he’s trying to prep for the possibilities because things have changed a little. Never know. Warned about tornados. Etc. upped the rain. 

Well. Fishel came on wringing his hands a little. Said the Triangle has greater chances of up to 50mph or so now. More to the south. Said it isn’t as bad a Fran was but this is a long period of time and it could be significant in places. 

Well great. 

15 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I really wouldn't put too much stock into whatever the "futurecast" or "RPM" or whatever the weather model news stations show... We use it because WSI, the company most stations (WRAL for example) runs that model and makes it super easy to manipulate that model into easy to understand graphics. Personally I hate it. WSI doesn't offer anything with the NAM 3km, which I would use. Point being, I would absolutely take anything the RPM is saying with a grain of salt and instead use hurricane models and globals.

Problem is 99.9999% of folk cannot and will be basing their decisions off whatever local adfiliate they watch. <Shrugs> That’s problematic. This may be an issue with some stations, but I don’t think fisher would steer us wrong if he knew better and I know he’s looking at all models.