Wx4cast

11 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

That fronto band was pure ratio's and must have been awesome to be under.

Not every storm that you see the Kuchie clown maps underperform. They did start to pick up on the insanely high numbers but not really until nowcast time

An all-timer/epic storm up there. Congrats guys.

I'll take my 13"-14" though. Very pleasing storm all around, especially for mid-December!

Trust me it was. I measured at midnight 1.3 " wiped the board, measured again at 7am 21" wiped the board, measured at noon 11.5". 

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet its right. This area has a great shot at Subby City.

Kucera out performed ALL 10:1 snow maps....it tends to do well when you're dealing with a very cold artic airmass and column combined with the extreme FGEN.

7 hours ago, Hoth said:

Anyone see flakes this morning?

We had some in Upstate NY around GFL and Lake George

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is a prelude to the predominate type of cyclogenesis this winter imho.

I agree with you..I see a very active coastal track.

Sounds like many of you had a blast with this past storm. Next one is for me and the east-central NYS folks too. Glad it worked out well for most.

Thats a hopeful sign Jay, I was concerned since I don't recall have good snow totals with the snow structure I've had all day. Andy says not to worry so I won't

What would cause the wet graupel type snow some of us have had all day? Warming in the upper layers?

Probably this (warm layers), dry layers and weak vertical motion. Also from an isentropic perpective ( a bit technical) my apologies you actually had winds descending DOWN these surfaces (negative lift) vs. going UP these surfaces. That will be changing soon.

Thanks for the insight!!! I am quietly hopeful that this will not disappoint once we get into the real show from 8-9pm onwards... I think POU could hit 18 if the bands set up..

Probably not as much as the snowicane in Feb, but i would take 18" of powder and drifting over 24" o heavy slop and power outages any day.

Agree 100% on both counts. Thanks to Wx4cast for his insight and less powder>more wet snow.

Seconded (or I guess thirded at this point).

Thanks and you're all welcome. Enjoy the band when it rocks you. Nothing like 2-4 inch/per snowfall with the winds rippin' and whippin' too. Envy you buggers but my time will come. Remember: Have fun and enjoy!

moderate snow for the last 2 hours, little accm less than 1/2' majority of snow is very small "flakes" - graupel like and very wet. 21F

Heard from family on Staten Island, 5+ on the ground.

What type of snow structure are you guys seeing?.

You should get into the awesome snow growth region after 8pm or so huge dendrites incredible banding.

Same here. Been snowing little pingers for a few hours (though they're now starting to transition into real flakes) and very little accumulation so far.

See above post

Yeah every now and then some larger flakes appear and disappear, never more than 5% I think. Its a concern for large accums. I've had some good radar returns passing over me

See above post

RUC keeps the heavy banding largely south of us...

RUC has been off past 2-3 hours on LP placement and precip too far east and south

I'm a little skeptical of how far north the heavy bands get... I'm thinking a line from Newburgh to Sharon is as far north/west as the real major accumulations get. Poughkeepsie seems in line for a decent 10" or 12" storm.

I think you may be wrong based on the 15z SREF LP track so far west and also jump west on its QPF progs. Just my take. I think POU will definitely get 10-12 but there's a MOD probability 40% for 18 inches.

Here are some Time Sections (TSEC) from the OOZ GFS. RH is color contoured. Temps are overlayed WITH snowgrowth region highlighted in lavender. Wind barbs usual convention in knots and upward vertical motion contoured in yellow.

First station is HUDSON NY, 2nd is POU, 3rd is ALB, last is GFL:

About 30 to 40 miles southeast as it makes the closest pass to LI. Maybe within model error, but that small shift moved areas west of the HV from 1.25" at 18Z to .75" now.... But it's only one model.

18z SREFs did too along with lower probabilities for .3 and .5 qp across ENY. This said I still think during the rapid Intensification period of this storm it will slow (and possibly loop) and/or jog some to the NW more towards BID Sound then pass off to the NW of the BM.

Thank you for dropping by with this information. In the areas that you mentioned bolded above would that be a stripe of heavier snow or is it from those areas south and east would see heavier snow. Sorry for the kinda IMBY question.

No problem. Right now the bolded area that you highlighted IMO stands the best chance for moderate to heavy snow fall (at this time). All this said I still have not and won't come out with any firm numbers this early; probably won't see anything from me until late Saturday at the earliest. We (I) just need to see some more swing W by N in the ensembles over time.

I've been perusing the 00z & 06Z GEFS ensembles...some interesting features of note. First both times have near the same amount of members showing a left of track low with 3 showing a hit and 6 a glance. There are now 2 members of the 06z set that are slower with the storm's track and onset. However overall the 06z ensemble/ensemble meant for 06z has a more ene track and appears to track over 120 miles or so south of the New Engalnd BM.

Right now I still think we will be dealing with 2 distinct cut-offs with this storm. The first will be where snow doesn't fall and where it does. The second will be within the snow area, that is very light to light accumulation and moderate or heavier amounts. Right now I think the potential for latter accumulation amounts is exist along an Ulster-S'rn Columbia and Duchess Counties east to the S'rn Berkshires and Litchfield county.

As for the HV north of Albany I am not too excited for much if any snow fall or snowfall accumulation.

I still think time IS on our side for a more widespread snowfall but we'll have to start seeing more ensembles and the ensemble mean shift north and west over the nxt 36 hours. Tomorrow will be telling IMO. If we start to see more of shift then north and west then its game on if we see either more of a shift south and east or the same current mix of data then prospects for what I posted above are more likely, perhaps even less than what I posted.