winterwx21
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About winterwx21
- Birthday 10/12/1977
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I've noticed that HRRR often does that on an off run after a major run. Looks good on the 18z run and then much different on the 19z run. It'll prob go back north on the next run.
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18z HRRR gives us close to 2 inches. I'd be very happy with that.
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I'm glad to see that the models stopped the trend of lowering amounts and beefed it back up slightly. Looks like a nice little 1 to 2 inch snowfall for this area tonight. At least it means we won't be shut out for February.
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But at least the 18z RGEM run was an improvement. It now gives us close to an inch after showing nothing for so long. RGEM jumping aboard for a light snow event gives more confidence that we're at least in for 1 to 2 inches. HRRR is about the only model showing nothing now. Hopefully that will jump aboard tonight.
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I think 1 to 3 is a good call for our area, but obviously still some uncertainty. I want to see the HRRR jump aboard by the 0z run tonight.
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Bothers me a little since RGEM is a good model, but there's too much other support now to not believe that we're going to see accumulating snow tomorrow night.
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And if it does happen, it's good that it would be happening at night when it's cold enough to get a little accumulating snow.
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At least our area is in the high 20s which is normal snowfall for an entire winter. We just need one more decent event to finish with solidly above normal snowfall. Hopefully we'll get it in late February or early March. It's only February 13th, so way too early to be giving up on winter even though the next week looks milder.
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Hopefully the Canadian has been leading the way with the snowstorm idea for Monday. Good to see the Euro jump aboard. Temps are borderline but it's just cold enough if everything goes right. Big-time dynamics on this Euro run.
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I root for snow through mid March. Then it's time for spring.
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This is a real thread the needle situation with the borderline temps. Only a slight chance but at least it's something to watch.
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I don't think it's likely to happen, but we can hope for a 12z CMC type of solution with a wet snow event for the next potential storm Sunday night into Monday. Would be nice to get at least a little accumulation from that storm to ensure that February won't be a shutout. I am glad that we're going into a mild pattern for awhile after that potential storm. We can use some 50 degree weather after how cold this winter has been.
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Of course it's a week away so we can hope that the high pressure won't be retreating as much as the current models show. Euro right now is showing a front end of a few inches and then a mix changing to rain. The position of the high pressure will be critical and we have a long way to go to figure that out.
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I would think snow ratios will be a little better than 10:1 too. It won't surprise me if we pull off 1.5" here.
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Yeah who knows about later next week, but at least we know we have the light snowfall coming for tomorrow night into Saturday morning. NAM still looks pretty good. The Euro run that just came out gives us about an inch. The long range HRRR gives us about an inch. Our area still seems on track for a 1 inch snowfall. I want another big snowstorm, but the light snowfalls are nice too.
