winterwx21

Much lower amounts by 21z on this NAM run. It doesn't have as strong of a thump before the change to sleet.

The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy.

Euro very aggressive in bringing in the sleet Sunday afternoon. Still a good thump before then, but it cut back snow amounts compared to the 12z run. The trends are not good with the mid level warming. Thank goodness we have such an extreme arctic airmass in place or else this event would fall apart.

Yep. Very unlikely that these short range models are going to be wrong about the mid level warming. It will probably look a little worse than what they're showing tonight as it gets closer. At least we know we'll get a front end dump before the sleet. Even if it's just 5 or 6 inches of snow and then a couple inches of sleet for our area, that's still a very nice winter storm that I'd be happy about.

What I don't like is when the ice is underneath the snow, like we had with a couple of the events this season. The wet snow melts at first so you end up having ice underneath the snow that you have to scrape hard to get up. Sleet on top of a powdery snow like we'll have this time won't be too bad to get up.

I'm at 18.5" here in Piscataway. Already a very good winter, so I'll be very happy even if this gets cut down to a 6 to 10 inch storm due to mixing. Would've loved all snow with a potential of a foot and a half like the models were showing a couple days ago, but I'm happy that we're looking at our best front end dump type of storm in quite awhile. This storm alone should get us close normal snowfall for an entire winter, and as you said we still have what is usually our best snow month (February) ahead of us.

People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years.

We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this.

The Euro brings in mixing issues early Sunday afternoon now. We might not know until we get into NAM range since that model is so good at sniffing out mixing problems.

Of course, which is why I said we have a long way to go.

Euro is getting the mixing close to us by 18z Sunday. Mixing is becoming more and more of a concern, but we have a long way to go and at worst we'll get a decent front end dump before mixing.

It sure is nice seeing you act like us for a change instead of all the trolling with claims that you root against winter. It's obvious that you really love winter lol.

Yep it does get a little mixing in here towards the end when the precip is lighter, but the damage has already been done. Nice hit on the UKMET.

Yeah with the airmass in place we know we'll at least see a very significant front end dump. It is kind of funny though (as Stormlover mentioned) that we went from worries about it possibly being suppressed with the brutal arctic airmass in place to now having mixing issues, but it's not a big surprise for this area. We've seen that many times before. It still should be our biggest snowstorm in years even if the mixing comes in a little more quickly.

Forky wanted us to believe that we could that we could never have a cold snowy winter again, but he was probably trolling with those comments. Before this winter he made a post saying he wanted everyone here to be miserable with one failed snow event after another, lol. But I know he really likes snow and is just trolling when he makes all these crazy comments. He's a good met and if he's on board for this event it's great news.