Franklin0529

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS were all over it

Still showing signal day 8-9?

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Check this out. Look at the location of where it depicts the low. GEFS:

 

Perfect spot.  This will not be nailed down till Tommor night

Just now, MJO812 said:

I have work in 5 hours 

Oof. Sorry to hear that. Euro ran that thing all the way to buffalo.  Idk what to think,  I'll wait till Friday to wave the white flag

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Why did I stay up for the euro

Way west

Disaster 

Just now, Rjay said:

Ukie

 

 

Looks a tick or 2 se no?

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol. Right over the bm.  

I was just going to say that lol. Thats where it was a couple days ago when it showed dc to Boston blizzard.  Could it? Yes. Will it?? Only god knows 

Gfs wont budge. Surface looks wonky based on upper levels. 

Just now, NutleyBlizzard said:

GFS with a wonky track. Primary looked like it was making a beeline towards the coast on a de east trajectory, when it suddenly cut due north into Pennsylvania.

That's what I dont trust. Never seen a track like that. Still 4.5 days out. That's an eternity this year

Tick or 2 east on gfs.  Gonna need more tho

Lots of late nights ahead. I got a feeling this will change 10 more times. By Friday afternoon should have better idea 

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I don't really think so. When the OP run makes this kind of adjustment across several model runs moving against the ensemble mean, then you disregard the ensembles. They are far more useful when some semblance of run to run and inter-model consistency has been established.

I'm not buying what the op is selling 5 days out. It's happened couple times already this year. Maybe by Thursday or Friday.  

Ensembles will be telling.  

Eps pretty far east. Anything from suppressed to inland runners on the table.

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The ECM ensembles like the others say relax 

 

Yup. Couple inland runners but looks like the mean going right near bench mark 

Gefs way east of op. On to the euro. Which was way suppressed

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why

If the confluence to the north relaxes even a litt little.  It goes to Pittsburgh. look at gfs

This one has a real chance to cut I think 

Follow ensembles outside day 3. Not a bad spot to be 5 days out

Ripping here in coastal Monmouth. Went from flurries to moderate snow fairly quickly 

3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Heavy snow, 31 degrees in Manahawkin. I think the coast jackpots again. Looks like mixing won’t be an issue as I feared 

No snow in northern Monmouth yet

Nothing yet in Monmouth county

She's gonna go right over benchmark.  Sucks no blocking or this wouldve been a bomb.  Nothing wrong with a 6" storm. I suspect my area could see 8 possibly.  Coastal Monmouth 

41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Here's that period honking again centered around the 17th give or take a day. This has been a consistent signal for about a week already and moving up in time. No can-kicking this one:

Old adage?? Big ones are sniffed out early??

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

3-6 is a good call right now based on the models today 

Yea. Central Jersey middlesex Monmouth ocean chance of little higher. Nice event. Take it an run