StoneColdWeatherAustin

Looking at the 18z long range HRRR, I see the triad starting to get into the mix around 3am or so.  I see 6 hours of steady precipitation followed by approximately 9ish hours of very scattered precipitation.  Is this a moot point ?  Or could it mean that the majority of the precip is going to be in the first 6 hours (in the triad area) and also mean that those first 6 hours could be heavy precip to line up with the forecasted QPF ?

32.0 in Advance. DP at 30.7. Light rain. Deck steps were getting slick. Weird thing is about 4 hours earlier the temp read 31.4 and there was standing water on the deck and front metal railing.

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Daffodils will be popping in 2 weeks

It appears the low is further east in the HRRR. I believe that would keep the upper levels lower for the NW piedmont and may stay as all sleet and snow with no changeover to rain on the backend.

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Tim Buckley was asked on social media why the models have seemed to be more inaccurate this year. His response was interesting and I was unaware of this

"Well, winter fake outs are nothing new - but the more you pay attention the more you get disappointed. A real issue this year though is that there are many fewer airplanes in the air due to COVID. Weather data from planes goes into feeding computer models with important observations, so their predictions have been more chaotic and less accurate than usual."

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Weatherbug gave up trying to figure out what it's gonna do.

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FWIW....Sref mean is .086 QPF and .28 snow at GSO for the Thursday event.

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Walked out and found frozen steps leading up to the deck and a light white coating from a patch of flurries earlier in Advance, NC.

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Anyone reporting from Danbury ?  Seeing some pretty heavy radar returns from that area.

Light snow in downtown Winston-Salem

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Comparing current radar returns at 11pm versus the 0z 3k nam at same time looks pretty darn close to the same.

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40/32 Advance, NC

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Is it just me or is anyone else not getting updated SREF Plumes since this afternoon ?

40.5/24.3. Advance, NC
33.26 wet bulb

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40.3/28.7 - Advance, NC

Advance, NC

45/28  Clearing Skies

3 minutes ago, yotaman said:

It is still at least 36 hours away so I don't expect watches or warnings to be issued until either tonight or by tomorrow morning.

From what I can recall, those normally come out in the afternoon packages.  Around 3-4pm today.

Snow breaking out in western NC at 10am.

4 minutes ago, Wow said:

I'm convinced no one is going to be convinced until convincing snow is accumulating on a convincing ground.

I am just glad that Tim Buckley was man enough to go all in yesterday.  Maybe that will help us not have a grocery store/gas station apocalypse the day that the snow is falling.

SREF Plumes doubled again.  Up to 2.05 in GSO.

On a side note, Tim Buckley said forget all you other peeps....I'm going all in !  First call 2-4" in the triad and mentioned that it could be higher.

3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

SREF plumes went up last run.

Yes, Indeed.  Doubled for GSO.

SREF mean for snow in GSO has moved today from .11 to .21 to .55

850mb level Gulf Swirl (think it is a HP since it barbs are clockwise), doesn't extend down to the surface, but I wonder if that will have an impact... 12z and 18z also showed it and was stationary through all 3 runs, but is it something to watch?

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Moderate sleet with a few big snow flakes mixing in. Advance, NC

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Radar seems to indicate a very over performing storm comparing it to the 15z HRRR. Radar is absolutely blowing up in the MS and TN Valley's.

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