StoneColdWeatherAustin

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

What are we even looking at? The LR has a big ridge over the eastern 1/2 for Feb into early March. We’re cooked.

My understanding of this forum is that it is for discussion of mid to long range weather patterns in the Southeastern states.  Although, recently it seems a lot of people think it is a forum that should only have activity if it is going to snow.

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps. 

Trying to understand here.  Does it require the low to turn north up the coast in order to create the negative tilt?  I noticed that this one is just shooting straight out to sea.

Correct me if I am wrong.  I am working off memory here, but I recall as a kid, the 80's as a whole being very snowy, up until '89.  Once I was in high school, I believe we went through a drought in the early 90's with the exception of my senior year, '93 and stayed in that drought until '96.  

Car thermometer which usually runs a degree warm, but last reading was same as bank thermometer. Last hour, W-S Airport reported 39, so similar  

Car thermometer which usually runs a degree warm, but last reading was same as bank thermometer. Last hour, W-S Airport reported 39, so similar  

36 degrees at Robinhood and Meadowlark in Northwest Winston 

41.2/32.5 Sprinkles in Advance.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The real longshot is the players attending real classes ;-)

Real classes are no longer needed since star athletes only stay for a year and everyone else just transfers to another school.

27 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Well, they canceled the basketball games for tomorrow. We better get at least 2 inches out of this. 

For our games, they delayed them by two hours and said if another change was needed, they would let us know by 9am tomorrow.  I replied and said in that case, why didn't you just wait until 9am tomorrow to see if there needs to be a change ?

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yes, that area in central NC is exactly where it shows the band sitting for a while.  Considering ratios closer to 15-1 and the fact that the model shows it still snowing in these locations at that time, could see a broad 2-4 inches if it works out as modeled.

16Z HRRR shows snow breaking out around Winston area at 7pm and shows it still snowing at 5am tomorrow.  Most of it looks light to moderate.  Depending on how much is lost to virga, it could be a moderate event, according to this model.

With the current GFS look, the precipitation outputs look meek.  I would expect much more liquid if it plays out like that.

I assume the issue for them is that people post these maps on, say, twitter, without any notification or warning that this is likely not to happen.  What this ends up doing is having ignorant people that don't know any better flood their social media with posts about a storm thats likely not to happen and get their hopes up about a storm that is likely not to happen so that when it doesnt happen, they flood the mets socials with irate posts about why the storm didn't happen...when it wasn't likely to in the first place.
 
IMO, theres nothing wrong with sharing models 5,6,7 days out.  I think if you want to be safe you share it with the warning that this is very likely not to be the outcome...but even then, the ignorant snow chasers that don't understand what theyre looking at wont get it.  Its kind of the issue with social media in general...no matter what information you share, theres going to be an ignorant portion of the population that is going to take it WAY out of context and cause issues for everyone else.

Kind of a weird thought , but how can a Meteorologist say to not post a crazy snow map 6 days out but it's okay to post a temperature map or a map that shows no snow 6 days out... isn't that an oxymoron? 1 is just as likely not to happen than the other... maybe I'm wrong...

I have noticed another trend.  If all models are showing nothing, but then all correct to a solution where we all get snow, several people on here get really happy and do not start cursing at the models for being wrong to begin with.

Color me shocked that it’ll be in gatlinburg from that position in 12 hrs.

Hang on, I've got to go purchase another coffee maker.

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Feeling now 50/50 or better to lose power (ice) here in Winston. Would be second time in two weeks after the wind/rain/snow extravaganza. Fun times. 

Also feels like pure snowstorm will be well west of 77 and ++ elevation. ~800 to 1,200 feet maybe WAA thump but quickly sleet/ice fest. Nothing like 25 degrees and pingers. 

1 minute ago, sarcean said:

WInston-Salem is part of the Piedmont Triad (Greensboro-High Point-Winston Salem) and very much still central NC. Charlotte is not really WNC--its more of a south central NC.

When I think of Western NC I think Anything including Hickory to the west (Asheville) and mainly the mountains. No one here in Charlotte thinks we are in western NC.

I am not sure there is a real correct answer.  Although the triad is considered central as a whole, places like Winston are very close to the mountains and obviously the furthermost western part of the triad.  You also cannot draw a vertical line, as I know when people on the board speak of western NC, they are not speaking of CLT, especially south CLT.  I do believe that when most people on here speak of western NC, they are including Winston and possibly even GSO.  Once you get past Guilford though, I very much consider that central.  

I have not seen any posts from the original QueenCityWX which I believe changed to BullCityWX once he moved to Durham.  Did he move again ?  Always enjoyed his input.

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

INT

On the GFS control/mean graph, am I reading it correctly that it shows another storm about a week later ?

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

In case anyone is worrying about soil temps, they are now in the 30's and 40's.

I am in Davie County and we cashed in on a couple inches from the 1/3 storm.  Soil temps were pretty high (50s to 60s I believe) prior to that storm.  It was sunny for a few days after that and it amazed me that 2 days later, I still saw shady spots of grass that were still holding snow.  I assume that the snow sitting on the ground must really kick the soil temps down pretty quick.

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I don't think this is a clipper anymore. More Miller A like. Someone correct me if I am wrong. 

From what I have been able to gather is that it is a clipper type system in the fact that it is coming from the northwest instead of the pacific, however could turn into a Miller A as it appears to dive south enough to interact with the Gulf of Mexico.

When past analogs are used to compare this storm, were those analogs also clipper type systems ?

37.6/26.5 in Advance

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