BBasile

1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

Sleeting here now. Measured 1.7" of snow at the changeover about 10 minutes ago. Trying to push that line back south, lol.

Good luck!  I've been huffing and puffing for the last 30 minutes, light headed and everything!  That damn rain line is still 10 miles to my north.  

3 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

 Don’t really understand the point of the Special Weather statement just issued, confirming the incoming snow. Seems redundant due to the WSW....

 

It's more to highlight the potential for heavy rates and the dangers that would accompany those rates.  

Have a mix of ice pellets/rain now.  No snow.  32.3F  0.5" of snow before the changeover part deux.  

3 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Just flipped to all snow in Bordentown, NJ. BTW: 18z RGEM and HRDPS slam us around I-95. Way colder than the american models. Let's hope they are right about the crazy rates tonight. 

American models seem to be about 5-7 degrees warmer than current observations.  At least south and east of 95.  

19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Now getting stickage on grassy areas and colder surfaces.  Treated surfaces are still wet.  Temp still 35.

Same here, but temp is at 32.8.  

Finally have some flakes mixing in here after 0.12" of the liquid stuff.  35.7F 

2 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

I know this comment always happens with winter storms, but that back end is approaching fast and we haven’t even gotten started yet. Can someone please alleviate my fears?

What back end?  

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How the heck is the NAM 12k warmer and a complete Rainer east of the Delaware River yet the snow map is higher almost everywhere with even higher amounts East of the River? I know its nowcast but what the serious F is wrong with these models anymore?

No clue.  NAM has me getting 1.5 hours of snow, but gives me 8 inches of snow/sleet.  Makes sense.  

Just saw this.  Not on their website yet, but out on Twitter/FB.  

Still just a nice, warm, steady, drizzle here.  40F / dp 35 

I'm in a precip hole here in central GloCo. Temp and humidity are moving the right directions, at least.  41.7F / dp 34 / 73%

14 minutes ago, kickingupastorm said:

Do models take into account Virgo?

I'm a newb, I’ve been a lurker of weather forums like this one for the last 15 years. I come back for extreme weather like winter storms and hurricanes. I skim posts and have picked up things over the years. I know much more than the general public, but not enough to contribute to the discussions, hence the lurking.

I’m also a male and don’t know why my avatar is a girl lol

Models may output sim radar, but just as with the real thing, the precip it shows is at some elevation, but not necessarily at the surface.  Virga is dependent on how dry the air is near the surface and how much precip is evaporating into that dry air, so it can be much more localized than even the highest res models can pick up on.  Not sure if that explains anything.  lol

15 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Radar is somewhat misleading here - had a couple sprinkles (barely) but at the moment nada. 40.3F.

Can 'see' the virga between phl and dix.  

Comparing radars, looks like there is about 10 or so miles of virga.  Won't take much, though.  42F / dp 33 / 70%

Kinda strange that their high end map is barely any different than their expected map, especially south of 95.  

6+ works for me.  

2.0" here.  Bulls-eye for Mt Holly's 1-3".   

Just now, KamuSnow said:

Let up a good bit here, light snow now. You should get hit pretty good over the next hour looking at the radar.

Yep.  Getting some bigger flakes now.  Already have over 1/2 inch.  Piling up quickly.  

Started here about 20 minutes ago, have maybe a 1/4 inch.  Coming down pretty heavy, tiny flakes.  Evap cooling dropped the temp about 3F.  28.7F / dp 24

Heavy, tiny flakes almost looks like fog in the light.  Pretty cool.  

16 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Any chance that band shapes up to the north like it did on the 0Z NAM? 

Just got outta bed seeing as I need to be up in 40 mins for work.  Have about .1 or .2 on the ground.  Spitting nice fluffy dendrites right now at a good clip.  Will be interesting if we end up sending our trucks out.  I don't see 276 getting much more than an inch out of this but we'll seem 

Not really.  6z NAM has the sim radar modeled fairly well, if not a bit delayed.  

Nothing here yet.  There's a bit of difference still in regards to the location of reflectivity between KDIX and TPHL.  PHL has a 1700' lower beam height at my location than DIX.  Precip is still struggling to wet the air.  

Oh, hello!  Right on the doorstep.  I like those 35-40 dbz returns.  Seems there's a bit of virga leading this, though.  Currently 31.7F / dp 21 / 63%.  

Had a 46 MPH gust at 12:05 pm.  That's the new high for the day.  

Measured a 45 MPH gust at 2:29 AM.  Wind is roaring now.  A 10 minute average of 20 MPH with gusts consistently hitting the high 30's, low 40's.  Gusts down the shore are around 60 MPH.  Hype justified.  

Only received 0.25" of rain on the storm.  Just hit a high temp of 46.  Looks like the wind forecast will hold, though.  Seems the front is about to reach the State College area.  Winds are S @ 5 knots ahead of the front and W @ 30 knots behind it.  

Ended with 2.8 inches and trace of ice.  Now it's all melting.  This storm is almost identical to the one before it.  And before that.  And that.  And that.