27596WXNUT

1 hour ago, PantherJustin said:

Stupid question…. Could Lake Norman enhance anything? Or is that wishful thinking …. I noticed on both GFS/EURo the little bubble directly to East and along the Lake

Depends on the winds.  I’ve seen lake effect off of Kerr Lake/Buggs Island on the NC VA border.  

Interesting thought by Eric

I know it can’t be taken verbatim but I feel like we get a pretty good thump tonight based on the NAM here in Franklin County. I’m about 3 miles east of Youngsville.  Figure maybe we can squeeze out a solid 3-5 here.  

27 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Can someone drop in Fishel's magic 2:30 tweet if it's out?

Here is Fishel’s post on FB. 
 

SORRY I'M LATE. HERE WE GO!

I want to discuss two concepts with you, so I hope you'll take the time to read this in its entirety. I'm going to discuss 2 things in a fair amount of detail.

First, the atmosphere is an incredibly complex system. It can be simulated extremely well by a myriad of mathematical equations that mimic the laws of physics and thermodynamics. However, these equations do not provide exact solutions, and add to that the fact that models are very dependent on initial conditions. And no analysis of current conditions is perfect, because we don't have enough observations to make it perfect. So there is inherent error in model forecasts right from the start, and those errors only grow with time. 

A trained monkey can read a map! What I as a meteorologist try to do is look at the processes involved in a given weather event, and try to decide if the model output is consistent with those processes. I mentioned yesterday that the disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream was weakening, and that the disturbance in the northern branch could very well be too far north to do us any good with regard to snow. My views on that haven't changed, even though the models are oscillating wildly as to how much, if any snow we will get. 

Now, concept #2 is instability. You usually only hear me talk about that when it comes to thunderstorms and tornadoes. But it's a much broader concept. Imagine a ball at the base of a valley. No matter how hard you push that ball up the hill, it's eventually gonna return to its original place. Now imagine a ball at the top of a mountain. You give it a shove and it accelerates down the hill and never returns to it's original location. There is something in meteorology called baroclinic instability. The word baroclinic refers to a zone of temperature contrast, which we clearly have with this front moving through today. The instability refers to a certain threshold that must be met for a low pressure area to form and intensify. What I feel is happening here is that one model run falls just short of that threshold, while the next barely exceeds it, and hence the differences in how far west the precipitation gets tomorrow afternoon and night. And frankly, I'm not smart enough to know which side of that threshold we will end up on. 

So all I know to do is give you the range of possibilities. I will not take credit for any outcome, as I have already admitted to you that my confidence level is very low. The best(worst) case scenario for snow lovers is 3-5 inches. The worst(best) case scenario for the Triangle is a Trace of snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The most likely solution in my mind is 1-3", but I am in no hurry to call my bookie in Vegas and put any money on it!

I know this was a long read, and I hope at least some of it makes sense. I'm not gonna pretend to be confident when I'm not. That would be lying, and my parents brought me up better than to do that! As always, I will keep an eye on things and update as needed. Happy Thursday!

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Who is DT and where is his page?

WxRiskupallnight on Twitter.  He’s around Richmond.  Interesting guy.  

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro was magnificent last night.

Brick, I’ve been a lurker for many years with a random post here or there.  We are not far from each other from what I can gather from your posts over the years.  
 

I think the models are all getting on the same page.  Looks from the models we are in a good spot for our area.  Barring any warm nose which has spoiled our fun the past several storms over the years.   Should be fun to watch it unfold.  Hope everything holds through the day today. 

31 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Through 7 pm Friday but won't it still be snowing then?

That’s exactly what I was thinking @TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

21 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Bummer. I have sleet/snow. The first time I've had sleet for the event.  

Same here Falls.  I must be due east of you.   9” or so here in southern Franklin County just outside of Youngsville. 

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

What did he say?

@Brick Tamland somebody asked him about accumulations for Raleigh in response to the Tweet Tarheel posted and his response was “significant”.  That what I’m guessing the other poster is referring to.  

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

The only question here appears to be what will the temps be during the event. I think the CAD could end up being stronger than modeled here, which would give us more frozen precip. I don't think it will be all snow, but will mix at times with sleet and freezing rain, but I could see it end up being more frozen precip than rain. A degree or two can make all the difference, as well as where exactly you are located when it comes to Wake County.

These storms are always why I am happy to be close to the Wake/Franklin line.  Always seems we do well.   Mixed bag for us for sure @Brick Tamland going off what I’ve seen so far.  I think it’s going to be a mess here by Monday.