Conway7305

I was never expecting 4-6. Let me be clear. Yesterday, several models began showing those higher totals. These were the short range models when the storm was a day away. Several models showed higher outputs for three consecutive runs at 3-4+ I wasn’t talking about fantasy LR runs or 360 GFS. Hence why I posted the maps, Also, why a lot of other posters here showed and posted the exact same maps I did . Yeah it was a brief output, but that’s what we do here. Follow the trends. Good or bad. I guarantee the next big “potential” storm on horizon, snowfall amounts will be posted here well before, even if it is “fantasy” That’s the fun of it.

Scroll back through the threads and you will see snow maps posted of the WRF and even the GFS. showing 4-6. BTW I live in Henrico.

Yeah I see that as well but also has it mixing with sleet/rain. I honestly just want to see some snowflakes. I think even a 1/2 inch would be generous. HRRR short range keeps getting worse for this area. Sad that a day ago we had 4-6…..lol

Inch would be nice. I really hope we can get a decent storm in Feb. Need to kill this terrible snow drought. I don’t know the last time we had over an inch.

Now we should really just keep an eye on the HRRR which loads every hour and look at the radar feeds. Hopefully we can get a shift back south again.

Looks like snow amounts unfortunately got lowered with short range 0z models. 1 inch would be max maybe 1.5. Snow band moves north fairly quickly. Things could change. Still holding out for a bigger storm later in Feb hopefully.

Max accumulations by any model projections is 7.5 inches. That would be great. My guess is between 3-4 inches.

GFS takes away the 1/20 storm but close call, S/W came onshore further SE (good trend) but did not link up with STJ. Still plenty of time

Biggest totals yet…That’s definitely WSW criteria if it verifies on 18z

Two of the short range models show us getting around 5+.WRF AR WRF AR2 This doesn’t include the 12z GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=48 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw2&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2024011412&fh=40

Love it! Beautiful overrunning event on 16th according to GFS. Also has some accumulation on the 19th storm. I would be happy with these two minor/mid events this week then break till Feb where we can score big SECS OR HECS.

HRRR Short range gives us 2-4.

now, we need to keep an eye on the 20th Storm.

On a positive note. We have a had a ton of moisture this winter from the subtropical jet unlike prior years thanks to El Niño. That won’t be an issue. Hopefully we can get into a favorable pattern in late Jan-Feb. MJO looks to swing back to cold phases in Feb. NAO/AO will eventually go negative again. Just need PNA to stay positive. Still could score big. Extended weeklies still look good for below average temps. I’ll certainly enjoy smaller storms but have most fun tracking the MECS or HECS storms. Thrill of the chase.

ugh….bad GFS run. May have to wait for pattern to reshuffle later in Jan to score unless things change Our window keeps getting pushed out. Trough just isn’t in a good placement. Needs to be east a bit and sw/ energy can dig more into texas instead of TN.

Still a ways to go for the 16th. However there’s another storm on the euro for the 19th.

Unfortunately the GFS is trending to the EURO which gives us basically nothing. A surprise inch or two would be nice. I hope this winter has some more uncomplicated storms for us. I remember 2016 all models showed that storm 10 days out and never budged much.

Will be curious to see the 0z ensemble members.

0z GFS has 6” for us. Actually the costal low track is ideal for snow here . It’s a colder solution so no mixing really. Just hope storm doesn’t get suppressed.

Yes! Meant P29

I’ll Take p28 on 18z GFS Ensembles

18z GFS ensembles way better for our area

I don’t think the GFS is handling the southern stream energy well. 500mb are drastically changing run to run. EURO has not wavered much at all.

Lots more big hitters here!!

Not as many members on 0z but still a few big hitters. I’ll take that 20 inch member!