I was always skeptical about the suppressed storm look because there’s no real block above. Hopefully it will trend back but too much we will get mixing/rain issues.
18z GFS 1/ 20 energy gives us a nice 3” but suppresses the 23rd storm. It’s really isn’t that much off track as Low still climbs the coast. Will see what ensembles say. Prob some decent hits still.
I remember that storm back in the day. We found a big open parking lot and took the trucks out to spin around. I think Short Pump did a little better on accumulations than the city if I can remember correctly.
The NAO is neutral/slightly negative. There isn’t a true block in place. That could help or hurt us if the low trends more NW like the operational run. We need the low off coast of OBX.
Not worried too much with ZR or precip types. still plenty of time for adjustments. I’m just glad Euro showed a storm. Will be interesting to see how many ensemble members are showing the different tracks.