Jump to content

Conway7305

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    780

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Conway7305

  1. Conway7305
    Yeah,I’m right with you. Pattern Change after next week and MJO going into warm phases, AO and NAO both positive . EPO not ideal. Not to be a downer but my guess is we don’t see any real threats until later this winter or towards March once everything reshuffles again. Maybe it reshuffles sooner. I actually thought we would score something this week with the cold push:/
  2. Conway7305
    A few huge hits, are they the combination of two storms or just one?
  3. Conway7305
    Friday system
  4. Conway7305
    Im actually working in VA Beach Wednesday overnight so maybe I can catch some of the coastal snows.
  5. Conway7305
    I agree and hope we get 2-4. That would be amazing. It’s trending the wrong way now but maybe it will come back. Euro about to start running.
  6. Conway7305
    Yep, next week is looking dry with maybe a potential threat next Friday. CMC sliding away to GFS on storm #2. I think we may have to wait for the next pattern change/ flip if nothing happens next Friday. MJO going into warm phases and NAO and AO both positive. Maybe the 12z Euro surprises but I doubt it.
  7. Conway7305
    NAM does show Mid week storm precip shield further NW even though it only goes out to 84. FWIW https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025011812&fh=84&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=ref1km_ptype&m=nam
  8. Conway7305
    Looks like Tuesday Wednesday storm is going to be a southern slider, I still hope the CMC is still right but it’s going against all other guidance. Models trending in the wrong direction this am . Sunday storm will hopefully give us an inch so we can see some white for a few days being so cold.
  9. Conway7305
    Still plenty of time. 5 more days to trend more NW hopefully.
  10. Conway7305
    Caving to the CMC??? lol
  11. Conway7305
    I can’t tell if the storm shifted NW or precip field just expanded more NW. Regardless , a good run
  12. Conway7305
    Anybody up? Nice trend NW on precip shield.
  13. Conway7305
    0z Euro looked better for us
  14. Conway7305
    Take it for what is worth but here is the evolution of GFS past 5 cycles and you can see a trend north with the moisture and rain snow lines
  15. Conway7305
    I think we score 1-1.5 from Sunday storm. Enough to cover the ground…lol Hoping next week Storm #2 trends well.
  16. Conway7305
    Can’t believe I’m staying up for the Euro…lol Hopeful the NW trend continues. UK also trended NW from 12z
  17. Conway7305
    CMC may be on to something, lol. Seriously though, 18z euro shifted N, 0z CMC shifted N and I can see a slight shift N on the GFS run from 18z for Storm #2.
  18. Conway7305
    I hope so!!! Dang 3 feet accumulations in parts of NC. CMC has held steady this entire time.
  19. Conway7305
    Rooting for Canada!
  20. Conway7305
    HECS for the deep south next week. Not too often you see that
  21. Conway7305
    It looks like half ensembles have next weeks storms tracking either south or north of us. A few in between give us nice hits like e18 lol…. I’m still not sold that models have figured out storm details/ tracking based off this. I know it’s the GEM, but it has been relatively steady. GFS and Euro Op flipping these wild solutions from cutters to suppression into FL/ GOM). Will see.
  22. Conway7305
    Hopefully EPS disagrees with operational
  23. Conway7305
    Nice Inland low and rainstorm…:/
  24. Conway7305
    18z EPS improved, nice north trend
  25. Conway7305
    Forecasted 1031 HP seems to be in a good spot over GL. The block I was referring to was a traditional Greenland block from a negative NAO index. If the NAO is slightly negative then we can score. It tends to bring storms up the coast, but too negative will suppress storms south. NAO is positive/neutral now and may dip slightly negative next week. Hopefully, it should not suppress storms as much . I’m still learning all this. A ton is still over my head….lol
×
×
  • Create New...