HVSnowLover

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Probably comes in as rain. Who has a fork?

Yea looks like basically all rain for the city and points southeast. Still 4 days out out so not a stick a fork yet but not looking good

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

SLP already 997mb over Oklahoma. Yikes.

Think this run gonna be ugly for the coast, very amped 

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

18z GFS is on board with snow for Friday morning. 

Snow to Rain on GFS still but comparing it to the other models its probably wrong for Friday 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

If that PV stays in place, surface temps won't get out of the 20s. 

Models warm up surface temps way too quickly in these setups. 

We see a lot of times with these storms where temps hang much colder for a while but it will torch at least briefly near the coast if the low takes the more northern track. Might be in the 20s/30s most of the storm and make a run at 45-50 for an hour especially on LI

Just now, CarLover014 said:

NJ shore and LI too?

Its way to early to figure out exact specifics regarding temps/precip type but with that track likely yes

10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I just hope this doesn’t become a coastal runner because that high seems way to our northwest. A couple of days ago it showed it over north of Michigan now it’s like north of North Dakota. 

It definitely could but I agree it's not going to cut or go way inland. Probably anywhere from a benchmark track to a coastal hugger is on the table which is by far the best scenario we've had all winter 

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Sounds like 1994;  I distinctly remember there being a large temperature delta between MMU and CPK during one of the January storms.

Yep this will have a sharp temp gradient and where that sets up will depend on the track.

Just now, mikem81 said:

CMC has temps into the high 50s

Yea I'm not buying the CMC when the Euro has consistently shown a much colder solution. Unfortunately I could see this being a rain event for the coast but it's not gonna cut the way the CMC is showing

GFS definitely more amped and north, Snow to Rain for the city, big snow/ice event interior

Another big hit and looks like all snow for the city on this run

As nice as the GFS looks to me unfortunately this is a non threat until the Euro gets on board   

At the very least this storm may finally put some snowcover to the NW of the city but with the antecedent airmass I could see some front end snow even in/near the city.

That wave that looks to form along the front on the 2nd looks mildly interesting, that must have been what the Euro was hinting at yesterday with the 12Z run. The way this winter is going and given the pattern/airmass in place it probably won't amount to much if anything but at this point I am tracking anything.  

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

no support at all at this point - unless YOU can wishcast it to reality...……

Depends what you're expecting, thats not that far off from a 1-2 inch wet snow event if it ticks north a bit but yea this is not going to be a big event, temps are marginal anyway