bdgwx

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

On the move out of NE....headed for central MO or further SE....will be totality path soon though when I cross into MO

GOOD LUCK ALL!!!!

The convection allowing model runs last night showed a lot of promise especially the closer you get to St. Louis.

38 minutes ago, winterymix said:

In St. Louis hotel.   Easting Snyders pretzels, BRISK lemonade, comedy on CNN.

Thinking of leaving at 5 am for the area between Hopkinsville and Carbondale.

GFS is clogged with clouds and the hated NAM is favorable.  Bust heartbreak, anyone?

I'm tentatively planning on heading that direction as well. I'll make a final decision tomorrow morning though after looking at the satellite. Several of this evening's convection allowing model runs have been favorable even for a large portion of the MO path.

All things considered the GEFS ensemble mean doesn't look bad unless your target is Nebraska. I'm tentatively planning on heading south and east of St. Louis tomorrow morning. Based on the last several GEFS runs, HRRR, Euro, etc. I think the odds of finding clear sky increase as you get closer to KY and TN.

Just now, ice1972 said:

I started ignoring those cloud panels on Wednesday....they're like NAM clown maps 

Probably a good idea. I think they're good for general trends and broad brush guesses, but at least with the GFS I think they look worse than they actually are. I don't track the cloud products from the RAP/HRRR (or any model for that matter) enough to really know how well they perform.

4 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Haha that's great.....centered right over my target in NE.....

That's the incoming shortwave radiation. Nebraska is covered with clouds...at least on the experimental RAP. The southeast side of I-44 looks decent.

It's pretty obvious the experimental RAP has the eclipse modeled. It's my understanding that the 0Z run of experimental HRRR will run out to 48 hours this evening.

49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That's great to know.  I was wondering if any model would run with eclipse conditions.

https://esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/eclipse2017/

4 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

And is the oval the shadow at 96 hrs there?  That's literally my primary target in NE as of now.....not sure I can get further west than central NE.....Missouri looks like **** there....

Yes, the black oval is the position of the shadow. Keep in mind that the GFS cloud products look worse than they actually are. As an exercise take a look at GOES-16 imagery tomorrow and compare it to what these cloud charts are showing and you'll see what I mean. 

I read that those interactive eclipse maps may be overestimating the size of the shadow by 100-1000 meters. The problem is that many scientists think the uun is actually slightly larger than the officially accepted value. One goal of the eclipse is to better narrow down the size of the sun. So the word of caution is that if you think you're just barely within the path you really might not be.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

If I do Missouri, I am looking at the St. Clair to St. Genevieve corridor in eastern MO. The center line runs through both of those places but I may try to get a little outside of a town to not deal with lights (I did read that some places are disabling the lights from turning on during the eclipse).   

Been thinking about how I want to experience this eclipse, and I am probably not going to seek out one of those organized viewing parties.  This is my first total solar eclipse and I want to take it all in with minimal outside distractions, and I'm sure I'd be pissed if there's a bunch of cursing and hollering, etc.

 

I'm still not sure where I'm going. Assuming clouds aren't an issue I will obviously stick close to St. Louis...just not sure if it will be north or south of the Missouri River yet. The St. Clair area is one I've considered. I'd be willing bet to most natives will either go west on I-44 or south on I-55. Interestingly, nearly the entire length of the I-70 corridor will be in the path. MoDOT has been advertising the eclipse on the dymaic message boards throughout the state, but you know there'll be truckers and other people who are completely oblivious to what's happening.

I'm planning on avoiding organized gatherings as well. But, setting up in a random parking lot and taking it in with the rest of those there is fine if that's how it works out.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The amount of meteorological data that's going to be gathered during this is just tremendous, especially with the ability to view 5 minute obs (and even shorter time scales).

Absolutely. This is will likely be the most studied eclipse ever. I'm kind of curious what GOES-16 will show. Will we be able to make out the umbra shadow? Also, modeling is showing a pretty unstable airmass for much of the path so it'll be interesting to see what effect it has on cloud patterns and obviously the temperature too. One obscure research topic is the "eclipse bow wave" which is a form of gravity wave that lags the shadow by 15-30 minute and ripples out at several hundred mph. Will we be able to see these with GOES-16?

Here's the AFD from LSX this afternoon.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
336 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

[snip]

.DISCUSSION FOR TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE...
(Monday August 21st)

The trend over the past 24 hours in medium-range NWP guidance is for
the mid/upper level ridge across the southern CONUS to continue to
build a bit northward through the day on Monday. This is a good
trend for prospective viewers of the total solar eclipse passing
through early Monday afternoon. Have lowered PoPs and sky cover a
bit from yesterday`s forecast as the better chance of thunderstorms
will be tied to the northern periphery of the ridge across the mid-
Missouri Valley eastward toward the lower Great Lakes. However, some
opaque cirrus blowoff from these storms to the north may be
possible. In addition, there are numerous other mechanisms for the
formation of clouds, many of which are very difficult to discern
past 36-48 hours. That being said, current synoptic pattern
forecast for Monday afternoon does look supportive of a partly
cloudy to mostly sunny sky, with the most likely types of
potential clouds being the aforementioned high-level cirrus
blowoff from thunderstorms to the north/northwest of the area as
well as diurnal cumulus. However, past total solar eclipses have
noted that the cooling induced by the eclipse itself helps to
reduce diurnal cumulus. Speaking of cooling, it certainly will be
interesting to see exactly how much air temperatures are affected
from the beginning to end of the eclipse. Attempted to add some
detail in hourly temperatures by cooling readings several degrees
nearest to totality (1800 UTC/100 PM) and 1-3 degrees in the hour
immediately before and after during the partial phase of the
eclipse. Actual temperatures nearest totality between ~1810 and
~1820 UTC will likely dip 5-15 degrees more, at least briefly.

12Z GEFS continues to trend slightly stronger and further northeast with upper and mid level ridge. I do wish it would slide further to the northeast though. For the St. Louis region I do have a concern with a possible MCS in NB having its cloud debris blown into MO by upper level winds, but if we could get that upper level anticyclone to move further north and east winds would blow more to the east instead of southeast nevermind that it would keep any shortwaves rippling through the flow further away to begin with.

7 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Thanks.....gotta say that's discouraging for the town I've targeted - Fayetteville, MO - but I've got flexibility leaving from Quincy, IL early early Monday....like 3 or 4 am....lol

FWIW the Euro looks better for MO. It has clear skies in the morning giving way to cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Research shows that the reduced solar radiation at the surface can slightly suppress convectively forced cumulus clouds (see here) so maybe that'll help this time too, I don't know. Regardless, be flexible. Right now official forecasts are more favorable the further southeast along the path you go so consider a drive more toward St. Louis if necessary. Keep in mind that traffic could be a problem especially along major interstates and near the St. Louis metro area. 

2 hours ago, ice1972 said:

For what part of the path?  Southeast? Plains?

Nebraska through Tennessee. South Carolina had higher cloud coverage.

12Z Euro has clear skies in the morning and then broad CU coverage in response to the unstable environment. Much of the eclipse path is under some pretty decent ridging so hopefully this trend continues.

I wish I could post it, but the 12Z Euro cloud cover products look favorable for most of the path except maybe closer to the East Coast. The EPS ensemble is favorable as well at least in regard to precipitation. It does show elevated rain chances along the East Coast portion of the eclipse.

I was wondering the same thing about NWP models. Do they model the loss of solar irradiance? I'm assuming they don't but I'm prepared to be wrong if someone knows for sure that they do.

And yes, I read that a 5-15F drop is common. The temperature lags the irradiance by 15-30 minutes so the maximum effect will happen after totality.

For those planning on watching from Missouri keep in mind that MoDOT is warning motorists that there could be "massive" traffic problems. That was the word they used. 

Also, there are still some decent rooms available in the St. Louis metro area that are actually in the path. For example, hotels.com says there are rooms at I-270/I-44 for very reasonable rates. This is a very affluent area with lots of restaurants. And you'll get at least 90s of totality without even leaving the hotel parking lot. Elsewhere outside of the path availability is plentiful in STL.

By the way, it should be noted that many in this subforum will get the chance at another eclipse in 2024. That one goes through Indiana and will last 4 minutes. So while most people never get the opportunity to see an eclipse ever in their lifetime we'll all get two chances!

50 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I've thought about going to central Missouri.  It's certainly an interesting event, but I doubt I'll be excited enough to want to drive for 4.5 hours to see a 3 minute eclipse, then drive 4.5 hours back.  We'll see.

The partial phase lasts 3 hours so as long as you have eclipse glasses you'll be able to observe it for a long time. Also, based on what I've read once you've experienced one eclipse you'll want to do it again. It's also said that there is a night and day difference between being in the full shadow and the partial shadow...literally. So make sure you get to the full shadow.

The St. Louis NWS office says there is a 25-35% chance of clouds at 1pm and < 10% chance of rain on Aug. 21st based on climatological averages.

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, if anyone wants to coordinate travel plans, feel free.  Might be tricky to pull off something organized though as people have different preferences on where to go and the possibility of having to move around.  I guess we could all head to bdgwx's house.

Lol. Head on over. I can't guarantee I'll be home, but you're all invited to hang out in the middle of the cul de sac.  

I'm fortunate enough that my house is fully within the path of totality. I will see no less than 45s of totality even if I don't leave my driveway. I'm still considering driving deeper into the shadow path, but MoDOT is already warning people here to expect "massive" traffic problems so I don't know if it's worth it yet or not.

From a scientific standpoint there are some interesting meteorological phenomenon that will be researched. This could (and probably will) be the most studied eclipse ever.

I'm with you guys. EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have something significant brewing for late next week.