bdgwx

Saturday might be a player as well in Missouri.

That is a huge powerhouse trough and upper level low showing up on the 12Z EPS. By 18Z on Friday (hour 174) it has 3 fully closed 500mb isohypses and that's just an ensemble mean. The 12Z GEFS also shows big troughing during this period. That's a pretty strong signal for a big weather maker. And it's that time of year so...

We may see some accumulating snow in MO this weekend.

Using 1981-2010 as the baseline GISS comes in at +0.33C for January while the NCEP reanalysis is +0.28C. 

14 hours ago, Wxdood said:

I know, there's still ice. Wasn't it supposed to be ice free in '08?

No. First, just to clarify, the academic jargon of "ice free" typically means less than 1 million sq km of extent. Second, based on the stuff I've read the consensus seems to be in 2040-2060 timeframe in which the probabilities of "ice free" go likely. At this point though I think we're going to be lucky to make it to 2040.

It's still more than week out so a lot could change. But, the EPS and GEFS means for the QPF swaths are not encouraging for Oklahoma.

The Feb 1st timeframe has been hinted at by the EPS and GEFS for a couple of days now. The weekend of the 27th is a different trough.

St. Louis has been in a snow drought as well. It's been 4 years since we last saw a bona-fide (6"+) winter storm. And as we move into February things get more depressing. St. Louis hasn't had a 6"+ snow in February in over 20 years! So I'm not holding my breath that February will bring anything of interest, but who knows. The trend has break at some point.

1 hour ago, Weatherdemon said:

12z NAM3K puts down up to 5 inches of ice in SC/SW OK and almost 8 in TX Fri/Sat.

NAM more realistic at a little over an inch max mainly in SW OK.

It looks like the ZR product on the COD site is messed up. I'm thinking it's scaled too high by a factor of 10.

Euro is really rockin' the cold air next weekend. There is a 40F temperature swing from Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.

3 hours ago, arizonasooner said:

Oh that is NOT good

I don't know...looks pretty good to me 

EPS and GEFS ensembles continue to show a pattern change in the days leading up to Christmas.

12Z EPS control run has nearly the same storm as the GFS. And the GEFS and EPS pattern evolution hints at something brewing in the days leading up to Christmas. So, who knows, maybe we're seeing a bit more skill than usual of modeling with an active pattern in the works. Or modeling could just be teasing us again.

1 minute ago, Random Chaos said:

Sorry - i was measuring radius, not diameter. Should have been clear!

Ha...yes, that makes sense now. And yes, I agree the OEW has contracted some.

I'm getting about 40 nm for the OEW and 8 nm for the IEW. I always measure perpendicular to the beam so that my reference points are at the same height.

5 minutes ago, Hotair said:

HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm?

Yes, but the HMON isn't ocean coupled in the Atlantic basin so we generally disregard the actual intensity output from it. It may still be useful in the sense that it "sees" an otherwise favorable environment. But, be careful about taking it too literally.

Where are you getting that?

As of 18Z Maria had an IKE of 60 TJ. I'd imagine the 0Z update is going to be higher. 

SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high.

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The average Joe just doesn't get it.  I had read about the difference between being in 99% and 100%, and it's not like I was doubting it, but you really can't fully grasp it until you're there. Totality began at 1:20 at my location and while the light was gradually growing dimmer, it was striking how much light there was even at 1:17, 1:18, etc.  I couldn't stop glancing at my phone to count down the minutes lol

The best way I heard it explained is that the sun is 400,000x brighter than the full moon. So even at 99% it is still 4000x brighter!

And yes. I too thought the light dropped off rapidly at the last 60s. I couldn't really perceive the shadow racing at me, but it went dark pretty quick.

So what do you guys think? How bright would you say the corona was? I was thinking it was about 1 or 2 full moons. It was brighter than what I was expecting. And really vivid.

I just want to reiterate how neat the experience was. Those who weren't in totality had an overwhelmingly "meh" response. But, those in totality always responded with "wow, that was so worth it" or "I'm already planning to do it again in 2024". This is something everyone should experience at least once in their lifetime.

We setup near the Perryville Municipal Airport on the MO side of the Mississippi River. I knew CU suppression was a very real effect, but I had no idea how effective it would actually be. We went from solid coverage at 12:40p to very sparse coverage at 13:10p and then just wispy remnants at 13:20p. In probably the most frustrating and unlikely coincidence ever we had exactly 1.5 minutes of cloud obstruction and it just happen to be from a lone dying rouge cloud that moved right in front literally seconds before totality started. Fortunately we had 2:40 of totality so we got a solid 60s of an unobstructed view of the corona. And wow...that was awesome. Pictures and videos don't even come close to doing justice to the experience. I'm all in for 2024.

We are in Chester IL. The town is active but the sky is clear. 

One thing to watch for in southeast MO and southern IL is moisture convergence initiating storms. The GFS, HRRR, and to a lesser extent the Euro show this. We are still targeting southeast of St. Louis and will probably head down I-55 and possibly cross the Mississippi at Chester, IL. Morning rush hour traffic on I-55 is north towards downtown STL...obviously so I'm hoping I-55 southbound will be clear. I-270 southbound is sometimes slow in the mornings, but it usually flows pretty well too.