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bdgwx

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    Global Average Temperature 2024

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    [Hansen et al. 2025] - Global Warming Has Accelerated

    2024 comes to end with Hansen (and cohorts) calling it. Global warming has accelerated.

    Those who track my posts know that I'm more pragmatic and conservative in general in regard to global warming perhaps even to the point that some might call me a skeptic though that would obviously mischaracterize my position. I just simply take a more middle-of-the-road IPCC style position. And I've said before that I'm currently Team Mann on this particular topic. However, I've also said that my conservative position is becoming more untenable by the year. I'm still not quite ready to switch over to Team Hansen, but I have to admit he has taken the lead in the debate...at least for now.

    Are you Team Mann or Team Hansen?

    Global Average Temperature 2024

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    On 2/16/2025 at 8:26 AM, chubbs said:

    However, this cycle is bottoming out at elevated level similar to recent dips, so would expect rapid warming to continue.

    The fact that the bottom is around 1 W.m-2 is concerning. Some estimates of sensitivity put us at 1 C per W.m-2. That means there could be 1 C of warming still in the pipeline without any additional forcing. Yikes.

    • Like 2

    January 4-6th Winter Storm

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    St. Louis just experienced a very robust band of conditional symmetric instability induced snow. The flakes were were huge and visibilities crashed. This band is moving generally along I-70 in IL right now. Snowfall rates were probably 2-3"/hr.

    • Like 1

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Regarding the MWP...Hubert Lamb, who first identified the MWP, even said he didn't think it was a globally synchronous event. Another related myth is that Michael Mann was trying to hide it. He didn't. His own work corroborated what Lamb and others had already discovered. And it is an especially bizarre myth since Mann was one of the first to hypothesize a cause; what we now call the AMOC.

    [Lamb 1965]

    [Mann et al. 2002]

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    Quoting Tony Heller in an atmospheric science related forum is like quoting Samuel Shenton in an geoscience related forum. Heller's pseudoscience and conspiracy position is so extreme that even one of the most anti-science and conspiracy focused blogs on the internet banned him. It almost defies credulity to believe that either Shenton or Heller genuinely believed the positions they publicly espouse. 

    • Like 5

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

    Scientists Find No Change in Global Warming Rate Since 1970 Despite “Hottest Year Ever” in 2023

    https://dailysceptic.org/2024/10/18/scientists-find-no-change-in-global-warming-rate-since-1970-despite-hottest-year-ever-in-2023/

    The publication cited is [Beaulieu et al. 2024]. They absolutely do NOT say they found no change in the global warming rate since 1970. What they said is that a detectable surge does not meet the statistical significance test using their changepoint modeling methodology...yet. 

    They also outline various warming rates and years at which the warming rate would qualify as a surge with statistical significance.

    "To detect a warming surge starting in 2010 and ending in 2024, the trend needs to have changed by 84% (equivalent to a trend of 0.034 ∘C/year from 2010–2024). If the time series extends to 2030, the surge would need to change by at least 58% (a magnitude of 0.028 ∘C/year from 2010–2030) to be detectable. If the time series is further extended to 2040, a surge of at least a 39% change (corresponding to a magnitude of 0.026 ∘C/year from 2010–2040) could be detectable."

    It might be interesting to note that UAH, which the authors did not consider, reports a warming rate of +0.04 C/year from 2010/01 through 2024/10. So the one remaining dataset dataset that many contrarians are still willing to consider does suggest a surge in the warming rate.  

     

    • Like 3

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    I'll remind readers here that ideally we wouldn't remove the UHI effect because it is a real effect. Cities and the land area that they represent really are warmer and really do contribute, albeit only a small amount, to the increase in the global average temperature (GAT). Any removal of the UHI necessarily makes the trend in the GAT lower than it actually is. 

    Ryan Maue's tweet is absurd. Urban areas account for about 3% (at most) of the land area of Earth. Even if you ignore the actual temperature in this 3% portion and instead infill those areas using Kriging or some other local regression technique It's only going to reduce the GAT by a few hundredths of degree C and be biased too low. And keep in mind that the UHI is an anthropogenic source of global warming anyway. If he wants to remove anthropogenic factors from the GAT to make the GAT appear lower than it actually is then he should go all in and remove all anthropogenic factors and not just the UHI effect. 

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton's IKE has increased dramatically to 78 TJ.

    For point of comparison using official NHC advisories just prior to landfall...

    Hurricane Charley 2004 was 12 TJ.

    Hurricane Helene 2024 was 100 TJ.

    Hurricane Katrina 2005 was 120 TJ.

    Superstorm Sandy 2012 was 330 TJ.

    • Sad 1

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Based on the 15Z & 18Z NHC update and the 18Z multiplatform wind field Milton's IKE has decreased to 37 TJ. Since the NHC does not publish the wind fields in their public advisories I can only estimate the IKE. We'll have to wait for the 21Z update for the official value. Anyway, this is good news in that the environment has been more hostile than forecasted in terms of Milton's overall wind field.

    • Like 5

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Per the official 21Z NHC update Milton has an IKE of 24 TJ. It is now forecasted to intensify to 70 TJ just prior to landfall.

    For point of comparison Hurricane Charley 2004 was only 12 TJ.

    If the current track and intensity forecast verifies then the 60 mile stretch of coastline and particularly the barrier islands from Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor are going to get rocked.

    Major Hurricane Milton

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    As we wait for recon flights here is the ADT history over the last 12 hours. 

    ADT91 LIST 14L.ODT CKZ=YES
=====    ADT-Version 9.1 =====
                  ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature-                    
           Time         MSLP/Vmax   Fnl Adj Ini   Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd   ET   ST   Cntr   Mean   Scene  EstRMW   MW   Storm Location
   Date    (UTC)   CI  (CKZ)/(kts)  Tno Raw Raw    Limit  Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region  Cloud  Type    (km)  Score   Lat     Lon  

2024OCT08 061020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.9 6.7 5.8  0.5T/hour  ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -68.64 -75.85  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.16   90.04
2024OCT08 064020  7.7  896.7 161.0  6.7 6.6 6.0  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -74.43 -78.44  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.00   89.56
2024OCT08 071020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.7 6.7 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -70.52 -78.87  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.15   89.35
2024OCT08 074020  7.6  899.7 158.0  6.6 6.8 5.9  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -73.65 -77.17  EMBC     N/A   84.8   22.15   89.57
2024OCT08 081020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.7 6.9 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -68.07 -78.98  EMBC     N/A   78.5   22.21   89.13
2024OCT08 084020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.7 6.9 5.5  0.7T/6hr   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -68.76 -78.17  UNIFRM   N/A   78.5   22.22   89.06
2024OCT08 091020  7.7  896.6 161.0  6.8 7.0 5.5  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -67.17 -77.76  UNIFRM   N/A   78.5   22.30   88.90
2024OCT08 094020  7.6  899.6 158.0  6.8 6.9 5.5  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -68.53 -77.65  UNIFRM   N/A   78.5   22.34   88.80
2024OCT08 101020  7.5  902.5 155.0  6.8 6.8 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -66.73 -78.66  EMBC     N/A   75.0   22.37   88.90
2024OCT08 104020  7.3  908.4 149.0  6.8 6.6 6.1  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -67.28 -78.44  EMBC     N/A   75.0   22.40   88.80
2024OCT08 111020  7.0  916.9 140.0  6.9 7.3 7.4  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.45 -77.72  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.43   88.79
2024OCT08 114020  7.0  916.9 140.0  6.9 7.2 7.2  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.94 -76.95  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.47   88.71
2024OCT08 121020  7.0  916.9 140.0  7.0 7.2 7.2  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.32 -77.04  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.48   88.69
2024OCT08 124020  7.0  916.9 140.0  7.0 7.2 7.2  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -25.55 -76.75  EYE/P  -99 IR  75.0   22.48   88.62
2024OCT08 131020  7.1  914.1 143.0  7.1 7.1 7.1  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -27.12 -76.51  EYE/P  -99 IR  58.2   22.49   88.60
2024OCT08 134020  7.1  914.2 143.0  7.0 6.5 5.3  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -71.99 -76.10  UNIFRM   N/A   58.2   22.23   88.47
2024OCT08 141020  7.1  914.1 143.0  7.0 6.5 6.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -54.89 -74.76  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.43   88.60
2024OCT08 144020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.8 6.5 5.2  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  OFF  OFF -58.42 -73.95  UNIFRM   N/A   58.2   22.47   88.55
2024OCT08 151020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.7 6.3 6.3  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -49.48 -73.51  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.50   88.45
2024OCT08 154020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.6 6.6 6.6  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -34.11 -74.37  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.41   88.52
2024OCT08 161020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.6 6.7 6.7  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -36.56 -75.20  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.45   88.37
2024OCT08 165020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.5 6.6 6.6  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -38.67 -74.51  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.46   88.36
2024OCT08 171020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.5 6.9 6.9  NO LIMIT   ON  FLG  OFF  OFF -14.98 -74.80  EYE     12 IR  58.2   22.45   88.24
2024OCT08 174020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.7 7.3 7.3  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF   3.62 -76.18  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.41   88.17
2024OCT08 181020  7.1  914.1 143.0  6.8 7.5 7.5  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF   2.70 -77.16  EYE    -99 IR  58.2   22.43   88.05
2024OCT08 184020  7.1  915.1 143.0  7.0 7.4 7.4  NO LIMIT   ON  OFF  OFF  OFF   3.09 -76.69  EYE     13 IR  58.2   22.48   87.96

     

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