cae
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Everything posted by cae
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I just posted the model discussion write-up. The short story is that the FV3 and 3k NAM did well. My favorite map that I generated is probably this one, showing calculated ratios for yesterday's snow from snowfall analysis and precip analysis.
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I think I've seen worse gradients around here. They're just usually sloped the other way.
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I agree. We ended up with about 4.5" here. Sure, it would have been nice to have more. But we ended up doing better than I expected just a couple of days ago, and there was plenty of snow for sledding, snowball fights, etc. And everything looks great.
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I'm in Towson. It looks like I should be on the edge of that band, but there's not a flake in the sky.
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Heh. I'm inside the beltway, but I'm somehow still in the light green. The HoCo-MoCo death band is for real. 107 pages in the obs thread for this storm and 104 in the model discussion threads. Good ratio.
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Snowing nicely again here. Biggest flakes of the day. About 4.5".
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3.8" in Towson. Very light snow still coming down.
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This is probably the last RGEM ensemble update for this storm. It stuck with the same general idea, but now with more snow. I figured out how to get probability plots for the whole storm rathern than just 24-hour chunks. I have to plot total precipitation, not just qpf as snow. I'm not going to show the 5mm plot, because at least 90% of ensemble members show everyone in this region getting at least 5mm of precip. Even PSU. Here's the 15 mm plot. Not all of that will fall as snow.
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From what I can tell, nobody knows the appropriate probability distribution for precipitation data. It appears to vary by region. The normal distribution isn't widely used because it allows for negative precipitation values and underestimates the probability of large totals. The gamma distribution is widely used, but it too can underestimate the probability of extreme events.
