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WeatherFox

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    May Observations 2022

    in Southeastern States

    Posted 

    Sat-Sun June 4-5, 2022...The upcoming weekend wl remain subject to approach of an
area of disturbed weather presently taking shape over the western
Caribbean. NHC projections have a "High" chance of development
into a named system by the time it nears S FL on Sat. With an
anticipated track presently near to south of central Fl, local
rainfall projections are largely subject to how organized the
system wl become by the time of closest point of approach to the
area during this weekend. A rather sharp rainfall gradient is
possible N-S over the peninsula should the system become more
organized, and/or a track further south than currently advertised.
A loosely composed baroclinic/hybrid system would potentially
serve better prospects for local wetting rains, and with
anticipation a NHC developed track and intensity forecast wl be
used as baseline by late this week, future wind/rain forecasts
wl remain subject to revision.

    OBS and nowcast for a widespread 2-6" event significant impact event, mainly midnight-Noon Friday morning January 7, 2022

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

    The Central Park total of 5.5 is at 7AM, logic says they surpassed at a minimum 6 inches?

    Of course since they won't measure again until 1:00 PM anything that fell after 7:00 am will be treated as if it disappeared into another dimension.

    NWS bumped Central Park a tab.

    Preliminary Snow Totals - January 7, 2022

    ❄️LaGuardia: 9.7"
    ❄️Bridgeport: 8.4"
    ❄️Islip: 6.6"
    ❄️JFK: 6.2"
    ❄️Central Park: 5.8"
    ❄️Newark: 5.2"

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Small or possibly moderate wintry event possible for a portion of the NYC subforum Friday morning-early afternoon 1/7/22

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

    Help me learn…

    Why are you holding the GFS is such regard after the last two storms? It seems that it has been quite bad this season

    Model Output Statistics (MOS), were a strong resource for forecasting surface weather parameters temperature, dew point, winds, precipitation, etc. I understand the National Weather Service looks to phase some MOS out in the future.

    • Like 1
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    january 3rd potential coastal grazer

    in New York City Metro

    Posted 

    Earlier NWS NYC Forecast Discussion:

"This will overall be a minor light snow event. Snowfall totals
are expected to be greatest over eastern Long Island, where 1-2
inches are possible. Farther west over northeastern NJ and NYC
up to an inch is possible. Snow totals drop off farther north,
with the CT coast and southern portions of the Lower Hudson
Valley likely seeing less than an inch and far northern
locations staying dry. Trends in track will need to be monitored
given the nature of the tight gradient in QPF and snowfall.

Timing of the event may be the biggest concern. Snow starts in the
early morning hours on Monday and will continue through the evening.
This could impact the morning commute and potentially the evening
commute for eastern Long Island. With temperatures dropping quickly
overnight tonight to below freezing, snow is expected to stick right
away. Given the uncertainty that surrounds this system, and current
light snowfall totals, have decided to hold off on any headlines
over our area in collaboration with neighboring offices. Subsequent
shifts will have to monitor new guidance and a Winter Weather
Advisory may be possible for eastern Long Island.."

     

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