MGorse

We are required to use the NBM for the official NWS forecast. Through collaboration though we can edit that if it is significant enough. It is quite the touchy new policy that many are not happy with. It basically adds more work than saving time as we were told it would. NBM has its flaws plus it always lags behind at least one model cycle.

It can vary.

As of 1 PM... 7.4" at PHL. 6.6" at NWS Mount Holly

Changing to sleet here at NWS Mount Holly.

More sleet reports from central to southern DE over to southern Cape May County.

There is ongoing FGEN, it is just more spread out looking on the radar currently (resulting in a large area of moderate to heavy snow).

Yup, given the visibility reductions looks like more snow than sleet. More of a mix or changeover closer to coastal Sussex County, DE.

DELDOT cameras show some snow still falling south of there.

Or pulling your hair out trying to message this mess to the public and partners.

What a freaking mess! If heavier rates can hold on longer that could be enough to keep the warm layer colder and thus hang onto snow longer.

It is not easy reaching blizzard criteria. In this case, the GFS, NAM and NAMnest soundings in the Lehigh Valley do show some wind however it is not ideal mixing. I am not sold on actual blizzard conditions occurring.

Meaning not occasional gusts. I think the idea is the gusts have to be occurring often and not just here and there.

It is sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.

It depends on whether it is planar/flat or radial ice. Forecasts are planar/flat ice accretion which is less than radial ice. For trees and power lines, it is the greater radial ice accretion that causes the problems (generally above 0.25 inches of accretion).

Just ice from freezing rain.