Jump to content
  • entries
    47
  • comment
    1
  • views
    2,918

About this blog

In this future, this blog will be used for forecasting snowstorms and their future impacts.  I will be using this blog for forecasting snowfall amounts and impacts from future nor'easter/blizzards and other types of snowstorms.  All other material will go in the other Once a Legend, Always a Legend blog.  Thank you!  Snowfall forecast for SNE will come in the early days of November.

Entries in this blog

Last half of November - upcoming New England pattern discussion!

I have drawn a graphic illustrating the next few weeks of the weather pattern across North America.  The northern hemisphere will favor a regime towards an evolving combination pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA.  The red in the picture represents the presence of ridging in the mid-upper levels and the blue represents the troughing areas of low pressure in the mid to upper levels.  The ridging over western CONUS and eastern PAC ocean along with ridging across AK, to northwestern Canada northeastward to
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

December 3-4th Nor'easter Storm Dynamics

The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands.  AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops.  If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heav
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Lack of Legit Snow comes to an end - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring.  However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm.  What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest.  We have time to figure out a few issues.  Until t
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Weekend Storm Threat (Analyzing the 00z and 06z NAM) - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night.  The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W.  This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W.  Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Ingredients for a snow event this weekend - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain.... Why it is possible... NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5 PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a col
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Long term pattern, ready to bring superstorms...SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

1

Chaos will lead to a SuperStorm! - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Emerging single for a moderate sized Snow event - SNE WEATHER UPDATE!

**signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE.  Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.** A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US.  Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source.  I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Happy New Year's Eve!

Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family.  Love you all.  Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

National CONUS Weather Update! - A break from SNE weather discussion

Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region.  A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow.  This is a major snow event for this time of year.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

It is a flash freeze kind of day! - New England

Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest.  Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours.  It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector.  AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph.  Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in th
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Interior New England - no surprise first snowfall occurs late week

It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weathe
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Southern New England snow in the near future?

Models are still undecided on the details as well as the synoptic scale pattern evolving the next 4-5 days across the Northeastern US.  Residents should watch the evolving forecasts the next 36 hours across the area, but should not be alarmed, especially southeast of I-95 corridor.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Snow is a distinct potential in the 6-8 day range

Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential.  Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days.  We just aren't there yet.  Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin.  That is as much a given as anything right now.  Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

Snow in the Seven Day Forecasts?????

Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return.  Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS.  BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models.  However, I am not sold on this potential at this time.  There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm.  We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0

ENSO Pattern looking more confident into Spring 2020

Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  Mor
USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

0
×
×
  • Create New...