2 replies to this topic

[Qaanaaq]

If willing, I would love to hear post-storm thoughts from some of you mets regarding this past event. Based upon what I was reading up to the morning of- it looked as though the moisture associated with the storm was progged to go much farther south-along with the primary low.

Here in CHO area- we were downgraded to a WWA- as it turned out, the storm totals were greater than the 5 inch criteria. In their discussion, LWX admitted that they struggled with the downgrade for hours prior to making the call-.

Did the accumulations and the energy of the system impress some of you? If so, was it the "second" piece of energy that may have been underestimated?

Did one model do better than others ? The morning of, some were proclaiming that the EURO was best one.

Any comments would be greatly appreciated.

[Ellinwood]

The Euro did well up until the 24-36 hour period where it brought the storm too far south. GFS was too far north for most of it and ended up correcting just a hair too far south in the 12-24 hour forecast window. NAM was out to lunch until around 18-24 hours before the event.

All in all, the forecast was hard out beyond 36-48 hours, but within a day or two of the event most forecasters had gotten a good grasp on the system (though of course some over-compensated for the southern shift in the models). In the end, the higher precip/snow totals did work their way a bit more north than forecast in VA, but not by much.

I make verification maps for all of my forecasts... here's the one I just drew up for this storm:

 20120219_MAsnow_verification.png   78.66K   1 downloads

[Qaanaaq]

Excellent - Thanks for taking the time with this- It helps a lot.