Central Atlantic Area of Interest—20% 2 day and 70% seven day odds of development

[WxWatcher007]

The tropics are active now with three systems being monitored. This is the thread for the current central Atlantic cherry.
 

 

There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle.

The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop.