TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN CHAD, AFRICA (NOT 96L)

[BarryStantonGBP]

THIS WAVE HASN'T SPLASHED DOWN YET BUT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD ANYWAY

POST MODEL RUNS HERE 

[BarryStantonGBP]

oui oui baguette

Quote

 Tropical Wave Inside Africa

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#2 by Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 06, 2025 7:39 pm 

At least per the most recent GFS run, what really catches my attention is how quickly this storm seems to form just after exiting Africa, becoming what appears to be a named system right next to the Cape Verde islands. Given its very high intensity down the line, somewhat reminds me of storms like Irma, Florence, and Lorenzo in that regard as well.

Really hope not, but if some of these model guidances are correct, then this could be a very long thread.

 

[GaWx]

 The 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with this AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.
 
 For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility.