PTC 22 (was Invest 98L)

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET says this may become a H near or past Bermuda: 68 knots/978 mb:

EW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 19.2N  77.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 18.11.2023   60  19.4N  76.3W     1003            33
    1200UTC 18.11.2023   72  23.4N  72.2W      999            43
    0000UTC 19.11.2023   84  29.0N  67.0W      989            53
    1200UTC 19.11.2023   96  37.5N  60.9W      978            68
    0000UTC 20.11.2023  108  48.0N  53.0W      979            58
    1200UTC 20.11.2023  120              CEASED TRACKING

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: not a H as was on the 12Z, but still maxes out as a 51 knot 984 mb TS once past Bermuda. Before that, it is near Bermuda as a solid (993 mb) TS:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 21.5N  74.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 18.11.2023   60  22.5N  72.7W     1002            35
    0000UTC 19.11.2023   72  28.4N  67.5W      997            44
    1200UTC 19.11.2023   84  34.3N  62.1W      993            46
    0000UTC 20.11.2023   96  42.5N  54.4W      984            51
    1200UTC 20.11.2023  108  51.5N  46.1W      988            49
    0000UTC 21.11.2023  120              POST-TROPICAL

[GaWx]

After several runs in a row with TCG from this, the 12Z UKMET dropped TCG.

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222023
400 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES, SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[GaWx]

At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.7 North, longitude 77.7 West.  The system is moving faster 
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and an additional 
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across 
southeastern Cuba tonight and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and 
Caicos Islands Saturday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of 
days, but the system's chance of becoming a tropical cyclone appears 
to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).