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Archived Forum Discussion Analogs - Snowpocalypse

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" The period I am most interested in seeing unfold is from the 15th though the 22nd. Why? Teleconnections support a -NAO, but it has to be west based, problem is though with the polar vortex displaced eastward, it is creating a ridge near the 50N latitude and 50W longitude, where the low is supposed to be and the low is further east out over the open ocean. The tracks of the 850mb low and the surface low are very important as well, but this timeframe is still over 10 days if talking about the 21st through the 24th. It appears that the first storm slated from the 15th through the 17th will be the storm to bring the cold arctic airmass southward, where temperatures will moderate in the Northeast for a time Monday and Tuesday as highs get into the 40s south and 30s north, and then drop into the mid 20s for highs on or after Wednesday, more likely 20s north and 30s south. There have been signals on the models that the storm will stall as well near the Canadian Maritimes, and a high to the west could spell trouble for at least the potential for ocean effect showers. Rain or snow I don't know at this point, but based on those low 850mb temps and surface temps likely to follow the storm for the 20th through the 22nd, we could be in for a rude awakening. -AO will allow the displacement of a very cold airmass likely not to come into the region until sometime around mid week next week, a +PNA will allow for a west coast ridge to spike up into canada, perhaps displacing the polar vortex and depending upon the location of this polar vortex will determine the amplification and placement of the 500mb trough. The placement of the axis of this trough will determine where the low develops and where it tracks. A lot to work out, but no matter what the track is right now on the models, what counts is that they have the storm in the right time frame. To me it looks like they do. "

Dec 10 2009, 11:20 AM
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That's exactly where the problem comes in. Didn't we also think a week ago that today's storm was going to have a cold air mass in place with blocking? Some of us even said there was no need to worry about any lack of cold air, and here we are, in the 40s and 50s with rain. This is going to have to be watched carefully as the models will change more than several times until we get to the shorter range, possibly towards a whiter solution, possibly towards a wetter solution.

Dec 13 2009, 06:37 PM
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What is everyone getting all excited about? This "storm" is 7 days away, and we all know exactly how much can go wrong with potential snow events in the mid-atlantic and along the coast. To say this time period has "potential" for a big storm for this area, well remember all those other time periods this month that had big storm potential and the teleconnections and models looked great 1 week out? Exactly. Don't get your hopes up, a major snowstorm in NYC/PHI/DC/BAL is hard to get in general let along in December. The odds of big snow along I-95 this far out are still extremely low.

Not trying to sound depressing, just stating reality. You never know, maybe the weather will surprise me rolleyes.gif 

Dec 13 2009, 07:53 PM
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