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klw

I hate to ask: will this be tropical?

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The GFS keeps showing this storm developing near Cuba:

Anyone know if it has tropical/subtropical characteristics.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_10.png

 

Found that Jeff Masters has this in his blog:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3586

Quote

An early appearance for the Atlantic’s first named storm of 2017?
The models are predicting the formation of a large area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday, and this low has the potential to acquire characteristics of a subtropical storm as it heads north and then northeast, passing a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday. Water temperatures in the region are near 24°C (75°F), which is near average, and these waters may be barely warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. According to phase space diagrams from Florida State University, the low will initially have a warm core that will gradually weaken as the storm encounters cooler waters near 21°C (70°F) by Tuesday. We give 5-day odds of 10% of this low becoming a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908.

Also:

88.phase1.png

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It's certainly possible. Nearly all models show an intensifying asymmetric warm core low into early next week. It already looks interesting on satellite. Would not be at all surprised if we saw Arlene out of this--it would be the first March named storm on record and the first March tropical cyclone since a Category 2 in 1908.

 

GOES02152017085oqwlhZ.jpg

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