The Arctic Climate & Weather thread

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think it is time to start collecting arctic weather data in the real time. We have seen many arguements here in different threads over these things and the level that we have info in the arctic. You can talk about whatever you want. Just be honest about the data you present. Thank You.

There has recently been much to do about modeled temperatures in the arctic and extrpolation at the surface.

Below is the temperature profile for:

ID Code: 300025010012460

Date: September 29, 2011 - present

Type: Multi-year ice

Initial Location: Central Arctic

Deployment: AARI Ice Camp

Co-located Instruments: Located at North Pole 38 Ice Camp

Initial Conditions

Snow Depth: 7 cm

Ice Thickness at Thermistors: 167 cm(1.67M, roughly 5FT)

Below is the Temperature and Surface Pressure record.

Here is the link to it's page: http://imb.crrel.usa...mil/newdata.htm

Current Buoy Data:

Iridium ID: 12460

Lat: 84.315 deg

Lon: -119.693 deg

Air Temp: -19.53 C

Air Pres: 1004.01 mb

Eye balling the latest temperature recordings from that bouy and the above graph based on the buoys current location, shows remarkable accuracy.

You can get more data here:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=23097

[WeatherRusty]

I think it is safe to conclude that natural variability, ie. +AMO has helped accellerate the loss of arctic sea ice over the past couple decades. This would be an example of the longer term trend being pushed below the trend line by factors other than a generally warming globe. Conversley, we should expect with a reversal of the AMO a slowdown in the rate of ice loss. The strength of prevailing winds which move variable temperatutre surface waters and push the ice are governed by atmospheric pressure patterns which change with time.

What we see as a trend rate for any given period is the result of the combination of natural variability and the longer term AGW induced trend. It is not all of one or the other.