phlwx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Any chance we get em before 7/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 winter ave should be 35.4???? up significantly from 34.7, FEB looks to be the month to have the largest increase - maybe over 1 degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 winter ave should be 35.4???? up significantly from 34.7, FEB looks to be the month to have the largest increase - maybe over 1 degree I have Feb going up .9 (to 35.7) if my math is right...June also has a jump of almost a degree. Dropping Feb 78-80 (average of 25.8 for the three years) and the cool Junes from the 70's pretty much did the trick for the hikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I would think June and July have warmed up significantly and recently I've noticed April has warmed quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/1981-2010/products/station/USW00013739.normals.txt JAN - 33.0 (+0.7) FEB - 35.7 (+0.9) MAR- 43.5 (+0.3) APR - 54.0 (+0.9) MAY - 63.9 (+0.4) JUN - 73.3 (+1.0) JUL - 78.1 (+0.5) AUG - 76.6 (+0.3) SEP - 69.1 (+0.3) OCT - 57.5 (+0.3) NOV - 47.6 (+0.5) DEC - 37.5 (+0.1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Snowfall: JAN - 6.5" (+0.1") FEB - 8.8" (+2.2" MAR - 2.9" (-0.3") APR - 0.5" (-0.1") OCT - 0.0" (-0.1") NOV - 0.3" (-0.1") DEC - 3.4" (+1.4") 1971-2000 - 19.3" 1981-2010 - 22.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 Top average high up to 87, bottom average high now 40...generally highs up one degree per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Snowfall: JAN - 6.5" (+0.1") FEB - 8.8" (+2.2" MAR - 2.9" (-0.3") APR - 0.5" (-0.1") OCT - 0.0" (-0.1") NOV - 0.3" (-0.1") DEC - 3.4" (+1.4") 1971-2000 - 19.3" 1981-2010 - 22.4" I guess the February increase makes sense given 2003, 2006 and 2010 being added. I seriously expected December's increase to be larger than February's though, with 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2009 added in. I mean how many decent December 1971-80 snow storms did we lose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 I guess the February increase makes sense given 2003, 2006 and 2010 being added. I seriously expected December's increase to be larger than February's though, with 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2009 added in. I mean how many decent December 1971-80 snow storms did we lose? http://www.americanw...post__p__198863 We didn't even AVE 2" of snow during the 80's & 90's combined in DEC, bounce is the 2000's blitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 I guess the February increase makes sense given 2003, 2006 and 2010 being added. I seriously expected December's increase to be larger than February's though, with 2002, 2003, 2005 and 2009 added in. I mean how many decent December 1971-80 snow storms did we lose? There were three Febs in the 70's that were double digit months, including 27.6 in '79. Four Febs in the '00's that hit 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Snowfall: JAN - 6.5" (+0.1") FEB - 8.8" (+2.2" MAR - 2.9" (-0.3") APR - 0.5" (-0.1") OCT - 0.0" (-0.1") NOV - 0.3" (-0.1") DEC - 3.4" (+1.4") 1971-2000 - 19.3" 1981-2010 - 22.4" December pulls ahead of March for 3rd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 There were three Febs in the 70's that were double digit months, including 27.6 in '79. Four Febs in the '00's that hit 10+ I was just saying that i expected Dec's increase to be bigger than Feb's Although I guess by percentage that may be true (I don't have time to look up the numbers right now) since Dec avg snowfall is so much less than Feb average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyBlizzard Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Here's the breakdown for Allentown, which is one of the few stations in PA that actually cooled between the 1961-90 period and the 1971-2000 normals, now it's back up again with these new normals. I've been wondering about this cooling ever since I noticed it when the 1971-00 came out. I think it must have something to due with ASOS which began taking obs in late 1995. 1961-90 MEAN 26.6 29.3 39.4 49.7 60.3 69.4 74.1 72.2 64.7 53.2 43.1 31.8 51.2 1971-00 Mean 27.1 29.9 38.8 49.0 59.6 68.5 73.3 71.2 63.4 52.0 42.0 32.0 50.6 1981-10 Mean 27.8 30.7 39.1 49.9 59.9 69.1 73.4 71.7 63.9 52.5 42.7 32.3 51.1 Between 61-90 and 71-00, Philadelphia warmed 1.0* overall and the division that Allentown is in warmed by 0.7*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyBlizzard Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 I wonder if the new divisional normals will continue the increased precip. that occurred between 1961-90 and 1971-00 normals: between those two, total yearly precip. increased by nearly two inches: 43.44 to 45.35 (SE piedmont division). "Enhanced hydrologic cycle" from AGW I'm guessing. For Phila. it's back down a little: 41.53" (1981-2010) compared to 42.05 (1971-2000) and 41.41 (1961-90). we'll have to wait till the end of the year for new divisionals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 http://www1.ncdc.noa...739.normals.txt Just an odd question for Tony, Ray, Mike -- Are the "normals" in that link the official average daily low/high? Average lows in the 70's (71-80) were 46.0, average lows in the '00's (01-10) were 48.0 yet it looks like the normal low dropped on a number of days (especially in April/September, both months featuring the biggest temp bump)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Just an odd question for Tony, Ray, Mike -- Are the "normals" in that link the official average daily low/high? Average lows in the 70's (71-80) were 46.0, average lows in the '00's (01-10) were 48.0 yet it looks like the normal low dropped on a number of days (especially in April/September, both months featuring the biggest temp bump)? The new daily normals aren't directly comparable to the old daily norms. This is because the scheme for developing the daily norms is somewhat different. In 1971-2000, the normals were based on a (spline?) curve. For the new normals, an accommodation for actual daily averages was made, so long as adding all the daily normals up and dividing by the number of days still resulted in the monthly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyBlizzard Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The new daily normals aren't directly comparable to the old daily norms. This is because the scheme for developing the daily norms is somewhat different. In 1971-2000, the normals were based on a (spline?) curve. For the new normals, an accommodation for actual daily averages was made, so long as adding all the daily normals up and dividing by the number of days still resulted in the monthly normal. I find it hard to be believe that they would change the methodology used to compute the normals so as to make comparison between them difficult or impossible. Do you have a reference for this? thanks alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 I find it hard to be believe that they would change the methodology used to compute the normals so as to make comparison between them difficult or impossible. Do you have a reference for this? thanks alot http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html#NORMALSCHANGES Unlike the 1971-2000 Normals, daily data were used extensively in the computation of daily temperature and precipitation normals as well as heating and cooling degree day normals, providing greater precision of intra-seasonal features. In previous installments, daily precipitation normals were computed as a spline fit through the monthly values. For 1981-2010, this metric will be replaced with a suite of metrics, including daily probabilities of precipitation as well as month-to-date and year-to-date precipitation normals. New products in the 1981-2010 Normals include normals derived from hourly data values. More details can be found in Arguez et al. 2011 which can be accessed here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/aarguez/Normals/1981-2010/Arguez-Extended-Normals-AMS2011.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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