prinsburg_wx Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 Yet another high qpf storm event seems likely late monday through wednesday. The potential exists for heavy wet snow & high winds for parts of the Dakotas, MN & WI. Soundings are quite cold so precip type would indicate predominantly snow on the northwest edge of the precip shield. Still a few days out but both the 110417 00Z NAM/GFS support the winter storm potential. 78hr NAM & GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 17, 2011 Author Share Posted April 17, 2011 12z GFS/GGEM...stronger further N. UKIE/NAM...weaker & S. GFS qpf for MSP 1.52...1.25 of that snow. 72hr gfs, ggem, nam & ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted April 17, 2011 Share Posted April 17, 2011 This is looking more and more interesting with each model run. COBB output for the NAM is spitting out some pretty insane snowfall amounts of up to 17 inches, which is probably a bit bogus. Last year at this time we were in 70s and had the boat on the lake already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Going to need to watch how high quality the phase is. A delicate balance here--but the Euro has consistently been faster with the lead wave ejecting ahead of the northern stream trough. Latest GFS suggests that potential too. For now it is a threat--but I am not convinced of a big storm just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Going to need to watch how high quality the phase is. A delicate balance here--but the Euro has consistently been faster with the lead wave ejecting ahead of the northern stream trough. Latest GFS suggests that potential too. For now it is a threat--but I am not convinced of a big storm just yet. I had big doubts on starting this thread, "my 1st thread on here"...euro was on it's own until the GFS came in tonight. I guess i just learned not to go against DR. NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I had big doubts on starting this thread, "my 1st thread on here"...euro was on it's own until the GFS came in tonight. I guess i just learned not to go against DR. NO. Well it isn't over yet...these phase events can be tricky since tiny differences equates to massive differences in the overall solution. Decreasing threat--but there still is a chance. That low amplitude southern stream wave will not be well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Well it isn't over yet...these phase events can be tricky since tiny differences equates to massive differences in the overall solution. Decreasing threat--but there still is a chance. That low amplitude southern stream wave will not be well modeled. I guess we'll see...still have the ggem/nogaps...haha. How was your trip to Boulder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I guess we'll see...still have the ggem/nogaps...haha. How was your trip to Boulder? I am still in Boulder I am using my friends netbook and had to glance at the weather. After seeing the threats I had to log on and discuss a little haha. Boulder, CO is pretty awesome though. Saw NCAR and we did some hiking in the Flatirons and Rocky Mountain National Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 I am still in Boulder I am using my friends netbook and had to glance at the weather. After seeing the threats I had to log on and discuss a little haha. Boulder, CO is pretty awesome though. Saw NCAR and we did some hiking in the Flatirons and Rocky Mountain National Park. Awesome, i'm hoping to get out to the black hills in June..be my big shabang this year. Anyway, if this storm flops then i'm ready for severe wx season to kick in up here and the hell with snow til november. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Awesome, i'm hoping to get out to the black hills in June..be my big shabang this year. Anyway, if this storm flops then i'm ready for severe wx season to kick in up here and the hell with snow til november. The Black Hills are a lovely area. Highly underrated. I suggest the Harney Peak trail--not too hard--and it goes to over 7000 feet. Watch the summer slope flow induced convection there--really tricky and can catch you by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 18, 2011 Author Share Posted April 18, 2011 Well it isn't over yet...these phase events can be tricky since tiny differences equates to massive differences in the overall solution. Decreasing threat--but there still is a chance. That low amplitude southern stream wave will not be well modeled. MPX huggin the GFS...this is just to my east. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 409 AM CDT MON APR 18 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * MAIN IMPACT...SNOW OR SLUSH ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT ARE NOT PLOWED OR TREATED. * OTHER IMPACTS...THE SNOW COULD BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I'm surprised no one else has posted in this thread for awhile. This looks to be yet another system where the heavy snow/precip misses Milwaukee by about 60-90 miles. What a surprise. WSW criteria from Prairie du Chien to Green Bay, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 MPX went advisory level with a general 3-6 inches foretasted for the area. This could a real pain in the the butt to pin point the the exact location of the heaviest band, 18z came in weaker with the low, but a lot wetter. 00z runs will be interesting to see. 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 MPX went advisory level with a general 3-6 inches foretasted for the area. This could a real pain in the the butt to pin point the the exact location of the heaviest band, 18z came in weaker with the low, but a lot wetter. 00z runs will be interesting to see. 18z NAM Weaker also coinciding with further SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Since yesterday's disturbance trended south this one HAS to! Regardless, winter doesn't want to end in Northern and Central Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota and Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 Weaker also coinciding with further SE? Actually the 18z NAM came in a bit further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 My thermometer at home must be going kooky, b/c it read 32 degrees in the past hour. If that was actually the case, I'd feel pretty good about receiving a fair amount of snow before the temps warm tomorrow during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 My thermometer at home must be going kooky, b/c it read 32 degrees in the past hour. If that was actually the case, I'd feel pretty good about receiving a fair amount of snow before the temps warm tomorrow during the day. It's 34 at the airport right now! So, you're thermometer is probably close at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 It's 34 at the airport right now! So, you're thermometer is probably close at least! The airport obs have been saying 36 and 37 consistently in the last few hours, so there is a minor, but important, discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 The airport obs have been saying 36 and 37 consistently in the last few hours, so there is a minor, but important, discrepancy. I go to the weather channel site and they update location temps about 3 times an hour! At 5:45 it was 34 at Mitchell. It did go up a degree or two after that though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 18, 2011 Share Posted April 18, 2011 I go to the weather channel site and they update location temps about 3 times an hour! At 5:45 it was 34 at Mitchell. It did go up a degree or two after that though! Nvm then, I go to the NOAA NWS site, and they update less frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I wonder how Tropical Cromartie is faring? As much as I like warm weather, as long as there is some sunshine I'm cool, but that dude has got to have his hands on the trigger by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 I wonder how Tropical Cromartie is faring? As much as I like warm weather, as long as there is some sunshine I'm cool, but that dude has got to have his hands on the trigger by now. I think the fact he hasn't posted since the severe weather of a week ago says pretty much everything you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 NWS going conservative here. Both NAM and GFS showing 6 inches plus and NWS going with 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 It's 27 here. Oh wait, that's just my snow weenie thermometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 19, 2011 Author Share Posted April 19, 2011 Valentine, NE already 3.5" 2011/04/19 00:52 KVTN 190052Z AUTO 06007KT 1/4SM SN FG OVC003 00/00 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP118 P0008 T00000000 0809 PM SNOW 29 S VALENTINE 42.45N 100.55W 04/18/2011 E3.5 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Valentine, NE already 3.5" 2011/04/19 00:52 KVTN 190052Z AUTO 06007KT 1/4SM SN FG OVC003 00/00 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP118 P0008 T00000000 0809 PM SNOW 29 S VALENTINE 42.45N 100.55W 04/18/2011 E3.5 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC Looks like they might end up with close to 6" then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 NAM looking weaker with cold sector precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 It's nice we're getting a chance at snow again a night after a huge bust. 35.4/29.7 now and those numbers are quickly closing in on each other. Reflectivity approaching 20 dBZ aloft, so we should see snow soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 19, 2011 Share Posted April 19, 2011 Already snowing in Janesville so that's re-assuring. We just gotten moisten up this dry air a little more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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