Monmouth_County_Jacpot

Just now, dseagull said:

Ah, so Ocean County isn't NJ... darn need to change my mailing address.  

Monmouth is also under a watch

12z NAM is in its wheel house time to take it a little more serious 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The rgem looks to follow

looks to follow last run or west?

Just now, MJO812 said:

H5 was great

just about to say that wish we can get the gfs to look like that at h5

fuse lit

hr 51 at 500 you can tell its going to be west 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Even if the Nam shows a bomb soon it still doesn’t mean much lol. It should be in a straitjacket. Would be nice to see that the trend toward more separation stopped and hopefully reverses. 

agreed can't take nam seriously until about 12z tomorrow

n/s energy looks stronger on 00z nam

18z euro looks identical to 12z at hour39

not going to get it done this run

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

The Ukie ran already?

Anyway, if this is the case, I'd bet anything that the Euro shifts east as well which will be frustrating since it's been the only model that has been consistent throughout most of this.

I am willing to bet my life Euro will cave if not at 12z than 00z

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

How can anyone give the euro any merrit?? It's been brutal all year. Gfs has schooled it an looks like its happening again

This

Just now, MJO812 said:

Wow

Looks like euro

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's impossible to jump on with the Euro until others do as well. The GGEM was closest but not quite as epic. I want to see the GFS get better with closing off the low sooner in future runs. It did just get upgraded. I can't really think of a standout model this winter so far, maybe the GGEM's done best? 

I agree right now it’s seems like it’s Euro against the world. Any other given year that would have been gospel, but not so much anymore. Let’s see what the 12z suites do. Ultimately I feel the Euro will cave. Better sampling next 12 to 24 hours. 

Just now, Jt17 said:

6z euro at 90 (still snowing):

Jesus

Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

6z gfs no Bueno

Actually a little better than 00z better for New England 

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z.

Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11".  29 of 51 member at or over 12".

12 members at or over 20".

Signal from Euro remains strong.  Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1.

Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point.  Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs.

Can you give a break down of central Jersey coast

Anyone doing PBP

971 inside the bench mark

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

The gfs will be west but won't be the Euro....yet. 

No need to be this far out baby steps but a cave is on the horizon itseems. I’ll feel better with better sampling tomorrow 

3 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

06 Euro with a solid swath of 10-12" from Delaware, to the Jersey Shore, to LI 

Pretty strong signal on the mean 

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Thanks. I forgot the 18z only went out to 84 hours. 

it actually goes out to 90

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

 

18z euro would be a phase bomb

as depicted right now what are the time frames is this an overnight storm or during the day?