J.C.

Looking at the trough orientation for next Tuesday we will probably be looking at some flurries or brief snow shower in NW GA for the second time this month.  

17 hours ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

NAM is showing 1-2 inches of snow for Atlanta overnight Sunday night.   Why is no one talking about it?

If you haven't noticed, this is a Raleigh heavy subforum.  Atlanta posters should probably spend as much time reading the Tennessee Valley su forum.  Raleigh not getting any snow is the reason for this thread.

2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Somebody delete the 3-6th thread! This Sh!t ain't happening! Save yourself the pain and misery, and just start drinking tonight, and carry on through Monday! Dilly Dilly

At least there is football...

I stole the second pic.

7 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said:

Is that Cobb County amount yours or from another observation?

We had 10"

The NWS map had a foot on the Cobb/Paulding line over a good chunk of area.

7 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Alright, I'll take that bait...

Who in the SE has had more snow than normal for a typical winter? S Miss? Louisana?

 

Mountain City, GA -18"

Cobb County GA-12"

Just two of many places around here.

14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I was just looking at that, 2.1 inches on the 12th, will soon be 4 years. That's hard to believe even for CAE. It either has to be a perfect or a freaky setup for you guys. You also got 2.1 that January so 4.2 that year, but that is it going back to Dec 2012 ; 5 years. So an average of .84 per year 

It really does have to be a perfect set up.  You need a parent high in the northeast and the storm a good ways off the coast for anything.  Columbia only has one wind direction that can bring in cooler air and that is northeast.  North and northwest are downsloping winds.

I can't believe the models are showing a deformation band for tonight, crazy.

Winter Storm warnings now from the western suburbs of Atlanta northeast to the mountains, I guess the models finally triggered it.

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Dewpoints just seem too high right now.  If those do no start dropping I don't see how any significant snow occurs there

There is the cold front draped across the south right now just north of Atlanta, I'm sure as the storm moves east it will pull some drier/cooler air in from the north.

Just now, CummingGaSnow said:

Could the map be posted? I'm very anxious to see what it looks like!

There isn't a map, just points on the map of major airports.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

SREF mean for ATL is 1.88"

GVL 2.75"

GSP 3.72"

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

My new favorite model! 6", yes please!

Mine too!

RGEM 18z 

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This is a big shift for the GEFS- previous runs had half of the members had a trace or nothing.

Very interesting.  Models must be picking up on some increased precipitation bursts.  Thanks for sharing.

I didn't realize there was a second front that the low was going to ride from Texas, that front is currently stretched from San Antonio to Pittsburgh.  Once that low passes to the south, the cold air will be brought in, to what extent is always a guess.

Euro looks good, but like others have said, it could shift slightly after one more run, but we are now inside of 24 hours.  I would also take what you see here and divide by 3 outside the mountains.

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

What do you guys feel about ATL, GSP, and Charlotte in terms of snow totals as of now ? Seems to me like most of the models are in somewhat agreement..

There is no way to accurately forecast this, to many variables.  Anywhere in Atlanta could see all mixing, or you could get lucky and get some heavy wet snow bursts that stick to elevated surfaces for a few hours.  Folks on here could give you a much better analysis, but from what the models are telling us, expect nothing to a slushy inch that might hang around a few hours.  Roads will be unaffected until after midnight Friday night.

16z HRRR

3 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

SREF where can I find that at?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/

select total snow and use the map below to select a location

Rather big NW trend on the NAM, climo....

SREF mean for ATL is 1.5" and GSP is 1.89"

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro wasn’t similar to the GFS in AL/GA/MS really.  More for areas north.  The Euro had 4-5 inches of snow in ATL while the GFS had none 

I thought the Euro had kinda sat between the two...

I can't believe the original outlier GFS is going to win this one.  Just goes to show you, pick the warmest or driest model when it comes to winter and stick with it.

Yep, all hail the GFS.