Jump to content

Disco-lemonade

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    317

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Disco-lemonade

    Hurricane Flo Banter Thread-no fun allowed, no saying the storm isn’t that bad plz

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, ILM2714 said:

    Welp, I’ll be riding this thing out in Wilmington which looks to get a pretty awful hit.  I’m in a hotel which is built to withstand the hurricane but I hope I have something to come home to. 

    My girl friend just left and is coming to stay here, her grandparents are staying in wilmington, one of which is on an oxygen tank and has no generator. They refuse to leave, personally I am very fearful for their lives.

    Hurricane Florence

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, shaggy said:

    So last year Irma was as big and bad of a hurricane we had seen in many many years. Would the Florence threat be considered greater now? Cat 4 winds and surge over a much more populated area with exceptional rainfall and inland flooding.

    Yea this is bad, and it's not like usual where we get a sheared out destabilized mess. This is something extraordinary 

    Hurricane Florence

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

    Sorry bro, my wife and I love wrightsville beach, and this track wld ruin that beach. Tough to think about.

    Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried.

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Florence

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SENC said:

    I and DownEast,, Digress.. I'm sure He agree's I hope pulled he button on that genset.

    I started mine.. got gas cans at the ready 

    ..

     

    I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly.

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Florence

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

    This is getting really scary. Hope she goes out to see, but looks like the tightest clusters from the model runs are between Charleston and Wilmington for landfall, and at least a cat 4 when it hits. This could be worse than Fran.

    I agree, Florence may be the sum of all fears... I don't understand those dudes up in maryland rooting for it to go up the Chesapeake, makes me wonder, do they even get it?

    • Like 1

    2018 General Tropical Discussion

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    DT in a recent video mentioned how the setup is similar to isabel so i decided to bring up an upper air map for comparisons sake.

    Image result for hurricane isabel upper air

    (hopefully it isnt a massive image)

    gfs-ens_mslpa_atl_19.png

    Florence at roughly the same location on the GEFS ensembles, notice the high over the NE. That's what will likely block Florence from recurving early enough to recurve OTS without affecting land. Over the next few days we need to watch very closely how the models place that ridge. Personally I believe Florence will, at the very least, get close. I really hope the cool water and dry air prevents strengthening because OBX may experience hurricane force conditions.

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

    I'm with you guys on the LR models being shaky and so forth.  But phrases like "models won't be able to see the LR well until ___________________" are usually what show up right before a warm pattern.  I'm hopeful, that the SSW/AO/MJO/Bad Init/ETC are the flies in the model prog ointment.  But it would be nice to see at least a MOVE in the direction of a colder pattern before the end of Feb.

    agreed its impossible to say what we will be seeing at 144 hrs a week from now... last couple of weeks haven't been great but we've made it through plenty worse in the last 7 years

    if we could just get a little nudge into phase 8 (still very possible) I'd bet someone within the climo favored regions of the SE will see a nice little closer to winter

    the nao really is killing us but ensembles are hinting maybe we will see it go neutral as we get into mid feb, as we saw in early jan neutral is leaps and bounds better than raging positive

    this would be supported by the mjo nearing phase 8

    ensplume_small.gif

    of course the modeling looks horrid  right now, but when looking beyond 144 hrs remember verification scores

    • Like 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    total precip out into fantasy and it looks good, max in the south (active) min in the northern midwest (arctic highs), I'd say at this juncture it looks like weve got a nice shot at some snow in the south before winter is over :)

    however, that max west of the apps indicates plenty of runners in there so everybody cant always win

    gfs-ens_apcpn_us_44.png

     

×
×
  • Create New...