• Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by sokolow

  1. 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

    Not sure if this perspective has been discussed much on here...but if you can get past his angry and egotistical style of writing, it's an interesting hypothesis.  Most importantly - if this hypothesis is really true, what is the best solution going forward?

    well its an embittered, polemical perspective that swings past issues which are actually relevant such as: 

    its wise to have provisions for health care workers to have separate residences available so they don’t infect their families or general public if they get exposed. spouse’s institution has a plan like that for our family. 

    hospitals are huge vectors, nosocomial infections are a Big Deal not just in pandemics but in everyday life

    and we’ve seen legit instances where the hospital or the medical supply chain was part of the problem in a pandemic, in the last 50 years. 

    but like. these are things that are understood to exist and be worthy of serious study & serious policy. but apparently the author of that post is a crank who, idk, hates an ex lover who was a nurse or doctor, or thinks clinical staff should live like monks in weird health cloisters, and who also has a paranoid conspiracy theory of disease

    update now laughing uncontrollably at vision of gamestop manager hulking the f out on his geocities era design covid truther blog b/c they shuttered his storefront then sheriff rousted his SCA sword enthusiasts club from the park, frothing @ paragraph 15: meanwhile my b!tch exwife tina is swanning around in her nurses scrubs buying groceries 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  2. 5 hours ago, madwx said:

    Now that the decade of March is over with it's time to look forward to the eon of April.  Looks to be starting off on a warming trend for the region with storminess becoming more common from Friday through much of next week.

    Last year it seemed like March was three months long, and then the last week of November seemed to continue for endless months as well. Subjectively for me it was unrelenting gloom, felt like vacationing in Scotland. Constant freeze thaw. Never wet enough to justify the full on overboots, but damp enough that with three pairs of workboots in rotation the first would dry in time for the third to come home soaked. Maybe just bad luck that this winter and an extensive below-grade excavation coincided, so there was no getting out of it.

    Should have bought the GI moon boots.


  3. Before I do that though this podcast episode

    was fantastic, covering what its like to have mild/moderate disease, examining public health responses & outcomes/potential outcomes in China and the USA, putting SARS-COV2 in context of other human viruses, talking vaccine / testing / treatment timelines

    the title says ‘interview with a covid patient’ but the patient is this guy

    W. Ian Lipkin

    John Snow Professor, Epidemiology, Professor of Neurology and Pathology and Cell Biology, Director, Center for Infection and Immunity

    perhaps best known to us plebs as


    ... the chief scientific consultant for the Soderbergh film "Contagion" ...


    • Thanks 1

  4. There was a really good roundup in that guys circle as it were, of epidemiological modeling successes and partial successes (as seen so far) in what has verified, and been useful prior to verification, lemme see if i can find it

  5. 14 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

      I've seen some models as low as 20k total and some as high as 500k total with current restrictions in place.  While I agree that modeling this pandemic is a great tool, the accuracy of this modeled data has yet to be seen.  More important than forecasting when this thing will peak is modeling the data of critical care needs to available resources in specific areas as we move forward.  That's the serious data in the short term that these models can provide to help get emergency supplies, personnel and equipment where it's needed before those areas get overwhelmed.  

      Kinda surreal 30 days ago we were throwing around weather model projections for snow and now were moving into Covid19 model projections.  If anybody knows how to nit pick computer modeling it's weather nerds lol.


    This guy is a bioinformatics professor at Uni Washington and he did a snap review of the UW above study and a followup thread


    Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) Tweeted:
    1. On Friday night I posted a rapid post-publication peer-review of the @IHME_UW model and associated white paper. Here's the IHME website and projections:

    Where he highlights potential strengths & weaknesses of the modeling, as well as the public & policy impact pitfalls inherent to the messaging on something that’s deeply contingent on how policymakers, professionals, community leaders, and laypeople then act

    • Thanks 1

  6. This forecasting exercise will come up, so I figured I would post it embedded as this guy works through the inbuilt assumptions. Click thru show thread, 20 odd tweets in chain, no 1-page collated version because thread aggregator was janky for me.


    Must read for model lovers, cause for cautious optimism and serious concern

  7. if your employer has a closet full of PPE sitting around

    if you yourself have an open box of n95s or what have you, check with all the cops, EMTs, fire rescue, RNs and doctors you personally know & make sure they got a stash. they’re already rationing PPE at my wifes workplace and i have been told it makes a huge difference to know you have a new clean mask, bunny suit, whatever waiting if the one you’ve got gets soiled beyond use; an emergency airway w patient in distress eg is not a clean affair


    same with niosh rated half / full mask painting & remediation gear if they’re in good condition and you have spare clean filter sets

    • Like 1

  8. Ran across that because a friend sent me to this thread by @kakape about what expert observers thought were plausible and probable near term scenarios before the current outbreak



    Many people now pointing to old articles (incl. one from me) saying: It’s all there. And others saying: No-one could have predicted #covid19. So I just want to be very clear about what I personally as a journalist covering this beat for years expected and didn‘t expect. A thread


    • Like 3

  9. On 3/24/2020 at 12:27 AM, RCNYILWX said:

    'Not an evil and monolithic orwellian total state'? Ask the 1 million Uighurs in concentration camps what they think about that statement. Don't fall for the propaganda:

    I won't further belabor this point but please don't equivocate between us and their government and don't say nice things about a regime that's the descendant of ones that murdered millions upon millions of its people and still 'disappears' critics, including some whistleblowers of their handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    Absolutely not, we should absolutely refuse to accept an outlook where inhumanity starts and ends with the actions of our perceived enemies.  If we’re going to count up the mountains of skulls, the armies of widows and orphans, the misery we make with political and economic actions or failures to act we need to put the USA, the British empire, and all the colonial powers in the same bin to be judged. We should not permit our own governments to get away with having “sinned quietly” by comparison, because for whatever reason it is convenient and comfortable to start history after 1857 or 1907 or 1957.


    I say “sinned quietly” because the person who wrote it made a deliberate choice to carry out policy he knew he should revile, when he damn well knew better


    We have to apply minimally *the same or higher* standards and hold our own “regimes” to higher levels of scrutiny and humanitarian standard whether historical or contemporary.


    btw as far as it goes for me this is not about like, equivocating or to excuse, to run an exercise in apologetics for a foreign government. its historical honesty we need to have about ourselves if we want a better future

  10. @RCNYILWX I think it is important to recognize that China is not an evil and monolithic orwellian total state with iron control over an antlike brainwashed populace; geopolitically it’s a modern state-capitalist superpower with a strong centralized government that has foreign, domestic, and economic policy priorities different to those of the USA. Those priorities don’t rate some individual rights as highly, and do rate some collective rights more highly.  Nonetheless the level of active surveillance power & coercive intrusion the central government can apply is probably less than the DDR had at its height and likely less than the USA can apply to you or me if it thinks we’re a national security threat

    If I wanted to round up a dozen candid accounts & frank opinions from Chinese nationals all I’d have to do is just ask a bunch of friends and I’d probably get answers within a day

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 2

  11. Anyway I think if there’s one area PRC public health authorities might be keeping quiet that’d be real positive if there was glaring transparency, it’d be what they know or don’t know about asymptomatic carriers & transmission.  AFAICT from what my spouse says, even her major research institution is grappling with the issue.

    Also if you can help now is a great time to call down your phone tree and make sure your family, friends, neighbors, church members, coworkers all are gonna be able to make rent & fill their pantries. Check with your local food bank

    • Like 3

  12. Even if we want to pretend China was 100% maliciously covering it up or first and foremost covering its own incompetence or whatever — if we are seriously indicting China my god the magnitude of blame the USA deserves for how we failed to use our seven weeks to prepare to save lives and the common wealth, if we for one minute are willing to apply the standard of scrutiny to ourselves as a nation that we think others deserve.

    • Like 3

  13. 4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

    Excellent and chilling data driven account of the rapid spread of the virus. Also, vividly demonstrates the blame the Chinese Communist government deserves for this global calamity. 7 weeks passed from the initial signs of community spread in Wuhan until they locked down Wuhan and the Hubei province. In that time an estimated 7 million people left the Wuhan area.

    Had the Chinese Govt sought to help its people and by extension the rest of the world instead of covering up the virus and threatening doctors sounding the alarm with jail, thousands of lives could have been saved and trillions of dollars of wealth not destroyed.

    Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

    From an effective patient zero, lets say it took a month for the PRC public health system to identify clinically, trace and type, and begin assessing the outbreak of a novel — though not unfamiliar — zoonotic virus and another three weeks to recognize the gravity of the situation and implement measures which at the time! remember! parts of the anglosphere MSM insinuated were authoritarian and draconian — that brings us to the end of January. Seven weeks.

    My household including healthcare professionals heard about the potential for this to be serious on the 26th of January, and about then my spouse started getting workplace briefings.  OK let’s say that China’s government or scientific establishment was negligent or irresponsible — and I don’t really think they were, but for the sake of argument lets just grant it.  

    OK its about seven weeks from end of January when they were airlifting out UK nationals and the world was coming to grips with the idea this was serious

    I do not really see that we, in the United States, leveraged the benefit of their experience to prepare.  The USA didn’t have to identify the novel pathogen, didn’t have to describe its behavior or learn how to screen for it. So if the NYT can scold China for failing to contain it what do we say about our own leadership used our own seven weeks if in that time we couldn’t even produce and deploy a rapid test that other people in other countries have since already invented and implemented on a mass scale

  14. 17 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

    Pretty grateful at a time like this I'm pretty much already a social recluse.  The transition to the new regime has been seamless.

    I got 15 cases of hard seltzer, my Doppler on Wheels dakimakura, and assorted handguns & mall bought samurai swords strewn within easy reach about my dimly-lit flag-draped living room. i’m ready for anything.

    • Haha 2

  15. On 3/19/2020 at 2:56 AM, Jackstraw said:

      I don't believe a thing that China reports. 

    I think critically aware skepticism is appropriate for dealing with what pretty much any government, corporation, or media outlet is claiming but given that, i don’t get the impression that the UN (say) or science communicators like the TWIV crew think Chinese offcial information or media is full of sh¡t.

  16. At least being weather dorks has given us that spicy prepper edge & a fundamental fascination with staring at computer screens slamming f5 to see how well numerical models verify in simulating chaotic, emergent phenomena.


    How long until the subforum comes up with the sars-cov2 versions of DAB and “wagons ______”. Which public health & epidemiology figures will be the new skilling? which research institute will emerge as the euro of pandemic modeling?


    Work for me is going full speed and probably will keep on until the governor says shut it or marty ozinga stops making concrete.

    • Like 2