Paulie21

Snowing in Hackettstown, quickly filled in on the leading edge, looks like f-gen band really getting going in S PA and S NJ, getting ready for rip city later. Betting on at least 3" here. Pretty low EPV values along and north of the heavier line as well. boosts some confidence. 

I feel like I have said this next sentence several times this year already but...ensembles don't look bad for next weekend, along with the OP GFS. ECMWF solid as well for now. All agree on some flow aloft in the plains. As everything in June and rest of the season goes, thermodynamics shouldn't be an issue, all kinematics from this point on.. 
At least something to look at and hopefully not disappoint like everything else has when it disappeared before it even got into the NAM range.

ERTAF continues to predict "Above Average" tornado activity for the period of 4/17 to 4/23 despite the progged barotropic nature of the upper levels. AAM begins going negative and in the favorable zone for western troughing. Chiclets look pretty variable during this time becoming more active going into May...FWIW of course, since the CFS becomes worse than climo beyond 18 days..