The_Doctor

06z FV3 drops ~20" in like 12 hours across northern Illinois about a week from now. If this replaces the normal GFS... 

LAF actually fighting at 32. Just took a short walk and there are some nice slick spots where there isnt any leftover salt.

12 degree temperature drop in 25 minutes so far. 

Currently a SVR tstm warning in central Oklahoma... with air temperatures in the 30s.

Quote

The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Kingfisher County in central Oklahoma...
  Central Blaine County in northwestern Oklahoma...

* Until 815 PM CST.

* At 726 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southeast
  of Fay, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail and the potential for a large of amount
           of smaller hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* Locations impacted include...
  Watonga, Kingfisher, Hitchcock, Greenfield, Loyal and Omega.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Lol that spot in north Missouri...

My current P+C forecast has a ~45 degree drop from 59 to 15 tomorrow night.

Quote

In most summers (June 10th to Sep 10th), 90% of the days feel like summer. In summer, people don’t worry about needing the right pattern or indices to get summer weather. In July and August, it’s summerlike because the calendar says it’s summer. Very simple!!!

This is a fallacy I see thrown around a lot here. An average summer feels "like summer" here because that's what we are used to. If there was someone who was a "heat lover", who thought that summer should be constant 90+ degree days like they have in Texas, then they would be pretty upset about how "un-summer like" the typical summer is around here. They might make the same argument that beavis made and say that "the heatwave back in June was the only 2 weeks of real summer we've had. The other weeks have only been a disgrace". In fact, they may be used to the winters we get in the Midwest and say "90% of days in the winter feel like winter! In January and February it's winter-like because the calendar says so. Why can't summers do that here?"

If we set our expectations for something that just doesn't happen climatologically, then we will get disappointed. Every single year. The only solutions are to A. move to Phoenix/Houston or Mt. Rainier/Alaska or B. Accept normal, and enjoy a nice 60 degree winter day when it comes (go outside maybe?).

Been snowing for about 3 or so hours now. Flake size has been fairly small the whole time, but recently it's been pouring. About an inch down so far.

12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Sure is lol.  In the heart of summer we have some of the more tropical conditions that you'll find on the planet.  It's simply amazing that we can transform into a vicious arctic wasteland like this.  The other areas around the planet that get the extreme tropical conditions don't even come close to seeing the kind of cold/dry arctic air masses like what we see.  

Made this image comparison earlier.

Might be cool to make a map of (Record HI - Record WC). Especially if there is enough data to plot it worldwide. The results could be interesting

I've seen -36F thrown around a lot as the record coldest in Illinois. Is the -37 in Rochelle in 2009 not counted? Sorry I'm not familiar with how records are determined/validated.

-SN picked up again in LAF. All the melted water froze into a thin sheet of ice quickly after the frontal passage, roads are pretty bad and I almost slipped several times on the sidewalks. With the careening temperatures and the howling winds outside, it really feels like how I'd imagine the Arctic. Very harsh weather.

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How much snow do you have on the ground?

About an inch or so, with bare spots. Grass is poking through.

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

The all time Indiana record of -36 looks safe, but wouldn't be surprised to see some spots near -30 in rural northern IN.

Thoughts on LAF?

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Lafayette checking in... this is brutal lol. But we stayed snow all day except for a brief period of sleet mixing in in the morning so I can't complain too much.

Just now, chuckster2012 said:

What? 7" is a miss?

He also got the big snowstorm at the end of last winter lol

SREF plumes at LAF are pretty funny. Solutions all over the place and somewhat evenly spread too.

10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

The screw hole on euro is laughable. I mean I can see a lull between the fgen band and the heavier band of deformation zone but one that large no. Just comical it has the lowest qpf bullseyed over me

Yea there's definitely a chance someone gets screwed. I noticed some of the NAMs were doing it where I'm at.

Was pounding earlier today but for the past couple of hours the snow has been lighter and dustier. I've been watching the dry spot in eastern Illinois for a while now but the gaps in returns seem to fill in before they get here; it has never stopped snowing today. Flake size has increased again in the past 15 minutes and the intensity has picked up somewhat. I can't measure so I don't have exact amounts, but some spotters in the area reported about ~5" at 12:30 (which seemed overdone to me when I walked around). Probably have added an inch or so since then during the lighter snow.

Pretty good gap in radar returns in southern IN

29 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The GFS and GFS are very similar to each other regarding next weekend. I know this doesn't mean anything really at this range, but I find it interesting.

I should hope so...

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

 

The snow map kind of looks like December 7-10, 2009.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Funny looking storm

Almost looks like a massive hook echo lol

3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Dang. Hearing all of these stories from others really puts Chicago winters into perspective... even in a bad year, we usually have at least one warning-worthy event in Northern Illinois I'd say (correct me if I'm wrong, I've only lived here for ten years lol).

You're definitely right; the snowstorm itself is only half the fun. It's the days before, with a significant event becoming more and more likely with every model run, that really crown a storm. I feel cozy and wintery just thinking about it. 

Yeah, I lived in the northern burbs my whole life until moving to Indiana in January 2015 (maybe I'm the cause of the OV snowstorm drought lol). It makes it just a bit more brutal, especially since I've missed a couple of big storms up that way. But climo rules all, not much you can do about it and you do get used to it after a while.

I haven't been in a Winter Storm Warning since February of 2015 (partly due to being in the wrong place within the state during various events since that time). I did receive a surprise 6" in early April of this year (there wasn't even an advisory) but it would be nice to have a storm that you track for a while that prompts a Warning; I think half the fun with winter storms is the anticipation.

Definitely want to break that streak this winter but part of me almost wants it to last until February so it can hit the 4 year mark.

KLAF gusted to 61.