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wotan

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Posts posted by wotan

    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    I wouldn't be shocked if there is a large tornado in progress on that cell, Crocket cell that is. Radar coverage really not helping out currently.
    That's a notorious radar hole. When I took my spotter training, they showed an example from that general area where a damaging tornado had occurred but it was not evident from radar.

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    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    Yes, and after Sandy the NHC changed the way they issued warnings for hurricanes that had lost the warm core characteristics in a technical sense so the public could better understand the threat.   With severe storms that's why I follow Hazardous weather outlooks which lead to mesoscale discussions, watches, and warnings.    But then I am a wx nerd and the general public might not be that attentive.  I know sociologists have studied and commented on this communication issue...most recently with the EF 4 in Alabama.   We'll see how this plays out today.
     
    I'm saying that's basically why I would go high risk Saturday. The general public are really the audience, not those of us who understand nuance.

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    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    As I understand it, the svr risk level is scientifically based on the anticipated number of storms within a specified geographical area.  I remember that May 3, 1999 in Oklahoma had an increasing level of risk issued throughout the day as the parameters came into focus.
    If nws were purely a basic science outfit, that would be valid. But as Sandy showed, that's not really how people work. Nws has a responsibility to the general public that isn't always served by scientific rigidity.

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    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    I'd hold off on the 0600 OTLK and go mod but mention chance for upgrade to high... wait to see how the early morning starts out.  Go for it at 1300 OTLK if everything is coming together... 1300 is 9am so people will be getting up around then and will see and hear about it on the morning news
    That's more than reasonable.

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    April 13th-14th Severe Threat

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    The same was said on April 2, 2017 - and there was some pretty harsh backlash when that event didn't live up to the 'high risk' expectations. It's a tough line to walk between societal impacts and maintaining scientific/meteorological integrity. 
    I understand. The same holds true for potential tropical cyclones. Ultimately, why does the nws exist?

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