wotan

Jeff is saying that vehicles were ran over by the tornado as it crossed the interstate. Sheriff said “major damage” there. 

Jeff Piotrowski


https://www.pscp.tv/w/b6H9RzF6dkVOcFlZZWxQS2V8MXZBeFJXWWFRVllLbL8bJ2E-IrV1QMy2P5ew5GphnHVGKH-Tu5IKRCv9Ubj4?t=26s

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Not good.

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I can confirm these West Houston storms are producing a lot of lightning.

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Now to watch TWC walking back yesterday's Torcon forecast for tomorrow.

Wednesday looks like the least likely day for widespread tornadoes compared to today and Tuesday. That squall line Tuesday night is going to really work everything over I don’t see the airmass recovering behind it enough at this point. Could be wrong, but most times when we count on recovery behind and MCS it doesn’t happen. 

TWC seems to be overplaying the tornado risk Wednesday. Shocking, I know.

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Anyone find out how the wind farm held up to the Tohoka tornado yesterday?

The gif was too large to attach here

Large hail report

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At the rate things have been going it's questionable whether the hail threat even pans out

Weather Channel is really overplaying the tornado threat tonight.

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Interesting thread:

Just now, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

 

Usually reserved for widespread damaging wind events.

Here's an example https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2017/ww0280.html

Ahhh. I was thinking very large hail could also trigger one. 

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

There is no such thing as a PDS Severe Thunderstorm warning... What are you referring to?

I meant watch.

Out of curiosity, what are the thresholds for a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch? I hadn't previously really thought about it for this, but the newly updated Day 2 Outlook has the following probabilities:

Edited to correct Warning to Watch.

Quote

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
   Tornado:   5%     - Slight
   Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
   Hail:     30% SIG - Enhanced

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Big downtrend for Iowa with the 15% barely nudging into the SE corner of the state after most of the state being in the Day 4 30%. Looks like SPC is leaning more towards the NAM, which remains worlds apart from the GFS which has actually increased the EHI over the area on recent runs.

Not impressed with this system as it gets closer, at this point not looking like a significant tornado event for anyone.

Quote

With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
   advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
   the area by afternoon.  As such, developing storms will likely
   become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
   large hail likely to be the primary severe risk.  Greatest risk for
   the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
   the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
   layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico. 
   Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
   two cannot be ruled out.  Convection will continue overnight --
   spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
   should gradually diminish overnight.

 

Day 3 Outlook

Interesting how this Tornado outbreak seemed to skip over Louisiana and the 2-7pm window when a lot of Tornados usually occur. Most of the activity was in the morning or overnight.

Hamilton, MS

Goshen, AL earlier this morning

Hamilton, MS

Wow!

James Spann is live on Facebook.

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It appears to be back.


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