hstorm

Short but intense here. Quite a few trees down (and no power). 

Lots of trees down from the afternoon storm here in Great Falls. Neighbors lost a big oak. Still lots of power outages. Fortunately ours was restored pretty quickly. 

Surprised to see our temp at 31 this morning. Colder low than I expected. 

18 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Didn't even know they had a model lol

(Insert old Elle MacPherson Photo)

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

GFS and Euro continue to be way different on the timing. GFS has snow starting Wednesday morning and EURO is almost 24 hours later.

I believe in this situation we are supposed to assume there will be two storms and add the highest snow totals from each model.

HRRR, which we know is an excellent model, has been getting a bit more aggressive with some snow for northern MD and with freezing rain to the west this evening (before everything changes over).  RAP, which is equally excellent, is generally showing the same.  I'm skeptical as is the 3k NAM.

33.0/30 here with some mist.

Dr. No can't say no if Dr. No is dead.

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Maybe I just pulled them too soon… being told it snowed more past those hours. You prob nailed it 

GFS has 0.2 in DC (and north) on Saturday.

Even more through 195 (subtract a few tenths in most places for snow that GFS says we get over the weekend);

1 minute ago, MDphotog said:

You know, I have to say even though I haven't gotten much in overall snow amounts this year it has to be considered a success.  The number of days with snow on the ground has been fantastic compared to the usual snow and quickly melt in the next few days.  

When I was a kid in southern New England, there was a TV meteorologist (on either a Boston or Providence station) who would calculate "snow depth days" -- adding up each day's snow depth.  I've always liked that as a measure.  A 6" storm with a snowpack that sticks around for a week or two (or three) is much different than one that melts/washes away in a day or two.

Using snow depth days, this has been a very good winter for most of us.

4.5" with compaction in Great Falls.  Likely closer to 5" for the storm so far if I had the time to measure properly.

19z HRRR actually ends up a bit drier than 18z to the extent that means anything (it doesn't).

3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

So, a cave then?

One could say.  Here is the 19z RAP Kuchera.  This morning it was showing about half as much snow around DC:

19z RAP was slightly wetter again around DC.  HRRR looks like it will be wetter too.  Both now more in line with the model consensus.

18z NAM is acceptable.  Waiting on 3k NAM.

For those worried about the short-term models, 18z HRRR and RAP both increased precip around DC.  

Steady light snow at the office in DC (Farragut West).

Today’s Georgetown Pike obs: Lots of plows sitting around and doing nothing. 
 

32.0/21 in Great Falls. Not worried about temps at the start. We’ve been below freezing for 12 hours and there is a thick cloud deck. Ground is and will be cold. 

29.8/20. Overnight low was 28.4. 

Pre-storm obs: Brine trucks out in force on Georgetown Pike. 

Still snowing (barely) DC north at end of 6z NAM run (with ice south to EZF/CHO).  Quite a bit of precip still to come through.

31.6 and foggy.

Climbed to 34 overnight before dropping back slowly. 

This forum has the best logic:

1. Models show jackpot to the north: MODELS ALWAYS TREND NORTH. IT’S OVER!

2. Models show jackpot over us: MODELS ALWAYS TREND NORTH. iT’S OVER!

3. Models show jackpot to the south: IT’S STAYING SOUTH. IT’S OVER.

31.8 with light freezing rain. 

Flurries here.