WxJordan

35 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Changes on the ensembles looking not so good for western areas...

EPS was already pretty suppressed and dry at 00z last night and its even worse today. 

 

And despite the super amped OP run, the GEFS is moving that direction too. 

 

We'll see where things end up, but there's no questioning this has been the name of the game in this pattern after we scored that first storm in January. 

Agreed. The Ensembles have not been bullish in general anyways compared to the OPS, and the Ensembles continue to trend further east and towards a way more suppressed version compared to the GFS.

 Crazy totals up north. Kind of neat set up with the way to energy phases. Doubtful the PJ will be able to dig far enough SW, but that is what would be required to bring snowfall west.

13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Euro continues to trend the ridge out west stronger. This is what's allowing the PJ to dig/dive a bit further southwest and capture some of the southern energy. Interesting trend to watch.

Northeast NC has the chance to do really good again with this system. Mountains will also do well more than likely with upslope.

In the middle, accumulations possible, but not a major event at the moment.

Rapid deepening as it moves up the coast. Crazy drop in pressure.

My final forecast I posted earlier today on social media. It was crazy today at work so I haven't had much time to post much. Looking like a good event for eastern NC.

1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

This was the all time worst though... Forecasted for 4-6 inches. Got a feather dusting. Places to my west and south got 4-6. Places to my east... well... screw those guys!

One of the best snowstorms for me! I lived in Hickory and it just kept coming and coming. Never will forget it as 2-4 inches was all that was forecasted by the local mets......

1 minute ago, a5ehren said:

Machine Learning engineers are plentiful. NOAA just doesn't pay well enough - Google and Meta pay the above-average ones $500k+ a year to figure out how to get your meemaw to click more ads.

Its hard, or should I say impossible, for the government to compete against the private sector.

I have to admit, I have missed the fun of tracking these events with other weather nerds like myself. Glad that I have decided to devote additional time to weather in 2022.

NAM is the outlier at the moment. Not sure if I would put a ton of stock into it yet until it gets support from elsewhere. Frontal passages and waves of low pressure are so hard to forecast....

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, but the models started cutting totals drastically even from Raleigh east from just last night and early this morning to midday.  

The NWS blend has been relatively consistent...

If anything the major change has been to push the storm further east away from the Mountains, which makes sense.

9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I do have to say that I am truly shocked and stunned as a professional meteorologist to see such a violent shift in the weather models from 11pm/12am Tuesday night Wednesday morning to the data this morning and at midday. I have been doing this for more than 25 years and I have to tell you that this shift is dramatic and quite sudden.
 

I wasn't so much shocked because, in my personal experience, this is playing out as expected. Phasing of the northern and southern stream is not well handled. When a cold front pushes through and stalls, in this case, it is hard for anyone west of 77 to get anything from this system without a strong coastal low. Eastern NC, especially NE NC is the place to be.

Below is my first accumulation map for the winter weather expected to impact the Carolinas Thursday Night through Saturday Morning. While I am not expecting wintry weather the whole entire time, waves of moisture are expected to cause periods of wintry weather.
The highest snow totals are expected in the northeastern part of the state. I am expecting 4-8 inches in NE NC. As we move towards the Raleigh metro, 3-6 inches of snow is expected. Lower amounts as you move further south, but these areas are expected to have more freezing rain. Southeastern NC needs to plan for the possibility of power outages with freezing rain possibly approaching a half of an inch.
For western NC and the western piedmont, lower amounts of snow are expected as you will be further away from the best moisture and low pressure center. A trace to an inch is possible in the mountains and foothills, with 1-2 inches possible for I-77, including Charlotte.

Quote

My current forecast for this system is pretty broad at the moment due to uncertainty in the models, but most of the data shows the best chance of wintry weather to be east of I-77 roughly. In matter of fact, some areas in northeast NC may see some large snow totals from this event (purple shaded). Blue areas may see moderate snow and a wintry mix from the front, while the red areas are expected to see the chance for damaging freezing rain. In the west, light freezing rain is expected in parts of South Carolina with the chance for light snow over the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont.

All the models really seem to be coming together on this general idea. Big snows (6+ inches) probably for many areas in northeast NC and southeast VA. I can even see some snow stretching back to CLT and GSO, but the main event will be towards the coast. I am really getting worried about the overrunning ice threat in SE N and NE SC. Could see a really bad situation in this area. Western NC will probably miss out unless something major changes.

18z NAM very different in terms of bringing in the southern shortwave later and further west. Would probably be an I-85 event. Very different than 12z runs and I consider it an outlier at the moment. 

3 minutes ago, Ghicks said:

Then ya wonder any nw trend in the coming days ? 

Always possible, but in my experience, probably not.

1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I think the over running moisture initially will be the best for us up this way. With the ratios, .20-.25 of qpf will get you warning criteria. 

Maybe. Its hard to wrap around enough moisture with the upper air features and low track. Not impossible, just very difficult.

5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

5 inches at Morganton. Know it’s been a good winter when that seems meh lol 

This type of coastal low is usually not good for us in western NC, especially when upper level support is lacking. IMO, this is really looking like a good setup for eastern NC. I really doubt how much moisture would wrap around roughly west of 77 at the moment.

EURO definitely less amped (more towards other guidance). Totals cut way way down in western portions, continues to show good totals across eastern NC. I really like the look of this for you guys in central and eastern NC.

I really think east of I-77 is looking good right now. I-95 and east looks really good. Everything just points that way right now. West of I-77 not totally out of the woods yet, but this is really looking to be a more coastal event.

IMO, I think eastern NC is the place to be with this type of set-up. I am trying to think of a time when a front stalled along the coast and moisture works it way all the way back to the mountains, and I really do not know of any off the top of my head for a winter storm. Not saying it is impossible, just a lot has to go right. Coastal areas have the better chance right now.

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah you did really well. I went on a bit of a rant lol.

Really, there was a better surge of moisture at the beginning of it than I even thought. But still, some of those totals were way way off LOL. 

This next storm is "more typical" with a phase between the northern and southern stream. Harder to forecast, but typical. Still unsure about which way to follow at the moment for western NC. Phase? No Phase?

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The national weather service stated that the warm nose wasn't as strong as predicted yet others here say it was. What gives? 

I thought the warm nose went exactly how I forecasted it. I think the NWS means in terms of freezing rain vs. sleet because the sleet area was larger than expected. 

7in in Morganton of snow/sleet. Great storm for us!

Ended with 7 inches of snow/sleet in Morganton. What a nice storm for us!

Very heavy sleet right now.