DDweatherman

1 minute ago, Ji said:

00z dosent have 108 but here is the placment at 12z yesterday lol

I mean it is the JMA, yes it means very little, but it can't possibly hurt to have it where it does. Shows there's still run to run variance in SOME modeling. The NAM being north also means little, but again if we're going to see any type of trend start, then this is how it has to happen lol. 

Just now, Ji said:

the JMA literaelly went 300 miles North and West. 

 

Jay I'm at the office, do you have 0z at 108? 

Just now, peribonca said:

Max snow totals in jackpot zone look weaksauce on icon

Positive takeaway if there is one is that it showed that bump north with a pretty mundane evolution at the upper levels overall. If it were more amped like a few of the others with the s/w, we could have a more robust and a bit "norther" outcome. 

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

18z ICON gets close, but accumulating snow stays suppressed just to the south. 

It is a pretty decent little bump northward. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Like I've been saying I just want a hold. Tomorrow is when I want to start seeing better trends. 

Unfortunately, I'd say 12z today was a step back from 0z, more like yesterday's 12z run which didn't make any friends around the metros. 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Through 72, euro looks better than yesterday's 12z at least in all the ways I can see.  Confluence better, s/w deeper and northern s/w deeper and closer as well.  

 

How did last night's 0z look as a reminder?

0z was a decent tick north with features overall and a sloppy-ish phase with the N/s bowling ball diving in. I'd say so far this 12z looks like its not going to be much improvement if any over 0z, don't think it'll make the phase work (i.e. the GEM)

The 6z EPS was very promising from a graphic I saw on Maue's page this morning, lots of lows tucked closely into the coast, right off ORF. Mean snowfall in DC was an increase, but there were also a number of lows inland over NC and the Potomac. 

My above post remains true, if the FV3 comes south, it wouldn't shock me, as we could be seeing a transition in evolution of the storm from option 1 with the confluence to the latest GFS/Euro looks at h5. 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run.

I'm actually expecting just that, because now its probably playing catch up with the new scenario in the mix wrt the trailing shortwave out of Canada. It's caught in the middle right now. 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah this is what I'd rather see, too. FV3 is perfect right now. Heaviest axis just a tiny bit south of us. You know that would end up a bit farther north, and we get buried with 18-24.

As easy as that all sounds, of course this is the MA and we're looking like a transition to the second scenario could be coming to the table. Interesting that psu pointed out in 09 we did something similar, and we do know how that one turned out. 

However, I'm with you. I'd much prefer the FV route. It just seems like wherever this thing goes, big numbers are being thrown out every run on QPF and snow output. 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

NWP?

Numerical Weather Prediction my friend. 

At the office, and don't have much time. Anyone care to throw a quick clown up of the FV3? 

GFS definitely did show some improvements this run, just a matter of working with that SW over the NE. I feel the STJ s/w will come in juiced onced its ashore. 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks like you lucky SOBs in jackpotville might avoid sleet awhile longer. Mix line washing out and moving east toward BaltCo/HarCo.

Well, you're probably right about that. Being from Dundalk, I'm in the process of buying a home a bit west of Westminster. I'm in Taneytown for this one at the lady's place. Great location for jackpotville. 

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Maby the best rates of the day S++

Agreed, over 5" here just to the W of Taneytown. Coming down with a vengeance. 

For me id say

Feb 5/6, 2010

PD2

December 2009/January 1996

January 25,2000

January 2016

Just think this, I am 20 and have experienced 10"+ events on 1/26/11, 2/13/14, 12/19/09, 2/5/10, 2/10/10, 2/12/06, 1/25/00, 1/7/96, and PDII

11,14,20,32,21,14,19/20,26, and 34.

Impressive I'd say.