ayuud11

Are they going to converge over the city?

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Actually Buffalo had 2 20"+ LES events in January 2019. 20" and 21" at KBUF

This one

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=E

And this

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=G

I was referring to those 24hr events bro that event was spread out over 2 days.

2 minutes ago, jculligan said:

Yeah, I was wondering about that too!! I was thinking, "Has it really been that long since the city had a good one??" but I'm not super connected to western NY weather.

City proper didn’t have a major one since 06 if you don’t count the 6-12” events.

10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Abbott Road South Buffalo.  That’s the money shot!  3”/hr rates easy!  
 

 

Damm bro You’re literally 4.5 miles south of me and I got maybe 5-6” so far!

Two bands?

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

KBUF reporting heavy snow

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html

Yea I’m right off Galleria and we’ve been riding that northern edge all morning long also looks like the band is lining up perfectly on the tip of long point for a nice metro hit.

14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

 

Baglini just explained why it’s weakening a bit ha says it’s just reloading as the winds realign, that shift “should” push that band a bit further north by mid morning 

I hope so bro i was right in the heart of that band till it stopped snowing suddenly lol between last night and the predawn hours we got maybe couple of inches of new snow.

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That Ontario band is cranking. Erie is helping feed that thing too. 3-4” rates easy 

Damm Watertown getting smoked atm..

Can't make this shit up why did the band get weak?

Pure whiteouts currently outside.

Downtown Buffalo out to the airport is going to get hammered in the next hour get ready!!

That has been the theme over the last several years though.. 

4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

She’s off and kicking... Gotta start seeing a shift north in next few hours or we’re just gonna end up with a sweeper that dumps 3-4” on its trip north and then another 2-3” in its way back south.  

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

NYZ012-019-020-085-260030-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-Wyoming-
545 PM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WYOMING...NORTHERN
CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 540 PM EST, a band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
around an inch per hour is located from near Ripley to South Dayton
to Arcade on the southern flank, and from near Angola to Hamburg to
East Aurora on the northern flank. This band of snow will remain
nearly stationary this evening.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this band of lake effect
snow creating blowing snow. A rumble of thunder is also possible
within the most intense portion of the band of snow.

25 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

That’s not the lake band. The lake band is just now starting to set up unorganized in Chaut/Catt/Srn Erie.

Yes from the looks of it they won’t be any action till Later this evening..

Quote

Off Lake Erie...

Northwest flow early this morning will back to the west by late
morning or midday, allowing multiple bands to develop from northeast
Ohio into the western Southern Tier of NY, with some upslope
enhancement along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will remain the mode of
lake effect through mid to late afternoon. By early this evening
boundary layer flow will be backing to the WSW, which will allow for
a single band to consolidate along the Lake Erie shore of Chautauqua
County into southern Erie County. This band will then move north
towards the Buffalo southtowns and southwest Genesee County by late
evening as boundary layer flow continues to back to the southwest.
Some high-res guidance suggests a brief southward drift back into
southern Erie, western Wyoming, and Chautauqua counties after
midnight before the band moves back north to Buffalo again by
Saturday morning. The band will reach its northern-most point late
morning to early afternoon Saturday into the city of Buffalo and
even the nearby northern suburbs before starting to drift back south
across the southtowns late in the afternoon. Lowering inversion
heights, decreasing moisture, and increasing shear will allow the
band to weaken during the afternoon.

Snowfall rates will occasionally reach 2 inches per hour in this
band of lake effect snow from this evening through midday Saturday.
Total accumulations of 15-20 inches are still likely where the band
persists the longest from western Chautauqua County, the northwest
corner of Cattaraugus County, into southern and central Erie County
including South Buffalo and the densely populated nearby southtowns.
6-12 inches are possible from downtown to the airport and the nearby
northtowns if the band makes it that far north Saturday, with a very
sharp drop off in accumulations heading northward through the
northtowns.

Yea lets wait and see how that band sets up late tomorrow afternoon into evening before we all get too excited about this lol

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Don’t you freaking dare!  This storm could be a transition zone special!  When we jackpot... WE JACKPOT!  

LOL

4 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Todd wasn’t working today I don’t think. He was calling for 8-14” County wide yesterday. Bagilini is working tonight and he definitley did call for 4-8” in the southtowns and 2-4” in the Northtowns as TS said. Really nitpicking at this point though. Still time for them to up it as the forecast evolves if necessary. 

My bad bro i watched it thru their website and thought that was today's forecast lol.

6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I still think it goes further north then expected. Lake temps are very warm, near record highs.

Watch that transition zone come in to play for the city haha

I don't see anything wrong with wivb's forecast i just watched Todd's 5pm forecast and he was calling for anywhere from 8-14" across Erie county which is inline to what the models and the NWS are calling for.

29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Good look! 

That’s Downtown out to the airport special. Classic 250 look right there.

Yawn..

6 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Damm I would take that in a heartbeat but we’ve been screwed so many times with LES events in the metro area it’s ridiculous lol

6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

You’re back!!! I know it’s real when you show up...

I'm always lurking man we just didn't have nothing to get excited about hopefully we get slammed both by that first wave and the LES after like what the 12z GFS showed.

Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I think they were just itching to issue something with how slow this winter has been so far especially with regards to lake effect: It’s the earliest I can ever remember a watch being issued. Not saying it won’t end up verifying but why rush to jump to a watch when you could realistically wait 24 hours and still have plenty of time to earn people? 

I would think they would at least want this thing to get in range of the mesos lol. 

 

Yea man was actually surprised they had it as well lol..

Anytime BUF issues a watch this far out it usually ends up being a dud lol..

Yea LR looks depressing might have to wait till December to get something going.