Fields27

0z models have begun to come in and the HRRR is painting a very snowy picture for the Philly burbs into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos.

0z NAM even more bullish as well..

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The thump for those getting it won't last long the back edge is already in Harrisburg
 

I noticed this too. Could be a blessing though. By the time Temps warm for the changeover we will be dryslotted. Maybe we can preserve some snow?

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NAM and Canadians will bust 

100%. Heavy snow now. Can't see 2 blocks down the road. Impressive.

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Didn't take long for roads to cave. Already our biggest storm.

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Snow came in like a wall. Went from flurries to moderate snow in about 5 minutes. Reading

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00z

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Sizable shift in the nam from 18z to 00z. For the better.

18z

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Ugh.. I hate these type of events even during peak climo. Never seem to work out. My expectations are with the GFS. But I'd obviously love a cmc outcome.

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Sad to say but this is our biggest event so far this winter. Was super surprised when I looked out the window. Looks like 3" or so on the branches. That nice little "death band" parked itself nicely over Berks. Radar looks good for the next couple hours too. Happy Super Sunday!

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They clearly aren't putting any eggs in the NAM/Euro basket. I do agree that an advisory should definitely go out. Just to make people aware of the possibilities.

How often do you see Mt Holly issue blizzard warnings that fan out to storm Warnings with no advisories to the fringe side? It's odd.

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I just turned that feature on for the desktop version. Very nice, thanks! I wonder how you can submit a report. Off to Google...

I'd like to know as well!

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is it virga or the real thing yet?

Another reason I like radar scope is they have those live reports of snow falling indicated by the snow flakes. I'm 5 minutes N of Reading and nothing yet. Judging by those snow reports we are an hour or so away.

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This seems appropriate for right now.

I remember seeing this a few years ago. I feel like the gfs and nam can easily switch seats here.

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18Z GFS looking warm with low near Erie.

Yea low jumps from Pittsburgh at 12z to to Erie at 18z. CMC is similar in low placement but is much colder. Hopefully just a normal off hour run of the goofus.

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Ended up with about 7" in Reading. That warm air push was insane. Once models started trending with that warm layer I got really concerned with the high totals being projected. Always seems that if models project a flip it normally happens sooner than later and kills totals around here. Still a nice storm, and a week before Christmas.

Also congrats to central PA and upstate NY, wow.

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Ironically Glenn just said a nuisance...roads will be just wet even up your way/Allentown.

The changeover happened sooner than predicted. I wasnt supposed to changeover until about now. Its been snowing moderately for hours now.

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1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

We’re all done with all snow equipment, the best part is we had no new purchases or installs, unlike last season when we we purchased some new plows. 

Hopefully you're a busy man this week!

EPS mean stolen from MA forum. Wow. 

Feels good to be back in here with a legitimate threat. Model agreement is nice to see but always leaves room for things to go wrong, as always. Here's to a hopefully happy week of tracking for all! Cheers. 

yup, sure looks nice out there. 
 

Definitely! Its been a longer duration event than I expected. Still only a coating but its nice to see.

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That initial batch was enough to coat the roadways and casue all sorts of havoc here in Berks. Accidents everywhere.

 

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Forgive my ignorance. A lot has been made of the fast flow not allowing storms to make the turn up the coast and amplify. If the flow is so fast how are so many storms this year able to cut and amplify so far west of here?

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Rain to 10" of snow should work out well...... via 18z gfs

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It's a hybrid on the ECM with northern stream phasing. 
 

The mid week system yes. But the super bowl system looks like a true Miller A, correct? My fault for not clarifying.

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If memory serves. Doesn't the gfs handle Miller a systems rather poorly?

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