RTPGiants

Just barely see a few flakes in the air in South Durham. 29 degrees.

I'd trade all of this storm for the fantasy GFS storm next weekend.

Still 44 here in South Durham.

Currently 46 in south Durham. Peaked at about 47 an hour or so ago. We'll see from here.

4 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said:

I did not know this.  So why so much angst?

I recall about a year ago someone put up verification scores of GFS and despite everyone discounting the 18Z it turned out they were all about equal. So data ingestion aside, I'm not sure it's a good reason to just discard a run because it's a mid-run.

8 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I think you’re looking at the wrong model. It’s 14-16 inches for the Triangle.

You're right, I was looking at 00z still. Definitely better on most recent.

46 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It looks good, eh?

Not for our area. It's cold chasing moisture. Basically rain for 12 hours and then hope the cold gets here. That never works out.

Still sleet in South Durham. No buildup on signs or trees or anything. 30 degrees though.

Sleet still here in South Durham (near Southpoint). 28 degrees.

Never bet against 34 and raining in this area.

Sleet/freezing rain in south Durham despite radar showing snow..it keeps going back and forth though.

Back to some sort of mix here in south Durham

Snowing pretty good in south Durham near Southpoint. Camera shows it started at 7:55 or so. Road tracks are covered over.

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

The NCEP SREF plume viewer page

NVM, I was looking at wrong location apparently...Well that would be something if it verified.

Where are you seeing SREF plumes like that? I see <1?

3K looks much more reasonable

It's not really the location that I'm suspicious about. I'm sure it'll be off one way or another there, but NAM is spitting out like 1.5 inches of QPF over spots. No way....

1 minute ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

It has been consistently showing this, though. 

Yeah, but no other real support

Go home NAM, you're drunk. Basically it keeps some sort of band over east central NC for hours...

Similar to wildremann ... about 6-7" snow here in south Durham. Was sleet just a bit ago, now back to snow.

Backside hit is back on FV3

Couple of flakes here in south Durham

2 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

32.5 and dumping snow. All hail the fv3

Careful...plenty of doomsayers are about to yell fake news at you.

The thing is, it pays for TV mets to be conservative. In our area things will be conservative say 90% of the time. So if you call low 100% of the time, you'll be right 90% of the time. The other 10% of the time you'll be forgiven. If you call high one time when it's not there, people will always remember that. Fishel gets to hang his hat on the 2000 storm where he was basically the only one to get it right, but late in his career (arguably) it's easy to just take the conservative road and be right most of the time. That's not really a criticism per se, it's just a way to maintain a steady state.

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts whether than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Basically rain tomorrow afternoon through the night. A small pocket of snow from 2 AM until maybe noon, then back to rain. And that's that. Said temps to the north are too warm to worry him.