RTPGiants

1 minute ago, Berlin1926 said:

If the steering mechanisms are so weak, why does Florence get as far as the coast and then looks like a billard ball hitting the edge of the table.  Is there something magic about the coast or are the models struggling with happens with the hurricane once it's made landfall.

Someone is going to turn on NC's snow shield system.

More seriously, it's just a timing thing. Happens to be Florence arrives as steering breaks down.

Looks to stall in about the spot where a bunch of Euro ensemble members stalled it. Maybe some agreement there finally. Everyone wants to know "when will it cross land", but the forecasts might need to evolve to something like "sits 50 miles offshore for a day".

4 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

It's early but GFS is a little Northeast of 12Z at hour 24

At 42 it's way east

2 minutes ago, ander420 said:

I hate to come off as sounding bitter, but I worry that if this is the case no one here except preppers will take a storm seriously.  Literally, everyone has been doing all they need to do which has not been the case in prior storms in my 12 years here.  Based on the certainty of the track, literally all the colleges have cancelled, all the schools etc.  A little rain is going to produce a lot of egg.  At the institution I worked out, they sent out this morning that everyone who can should go home.  Kids have been flying out since yesterday since the school has to evacuate if they lose power.  This is in the triangle/triad area.  My wife works in academics as well and it is in the same boat - telling people to just go home.  Not sure what it really means at this point but I think if this is right and there ever is a major slap this way very few will be ready for it.

Here in lay the problem for pretty much every NHC forecast. You've basically hit on the head why NHC doesn't make wild prediction swings based on every model run. If you cry wolf too far in advance, then people will not take proper care the next time. If you're too conservative, then people won't have time to prepare. Unfortunately atmospheric prediction is still a challenge even in these days of advanced computer models. If you're a professor and in the end the Triangle area gets nothing, I hope you teach your students that it was better to over prepare than to under prepare. In the end it will have cost them and you money and time, but that's ok. In today's "everything right now" society, it's ok to take a pause out of your life for safety rather than play on the edge of the knife.

Anyone have precip totals from that Euro run?

Just curious if anyone took a look at the FV3 out to the end of the run. 3 separate landfalls after 2 separate regeneration events....heh...let's not do that.

Latest GFS is a little colder and a little slower with precip around the 26th. Still a miss, but closer.