Cincy12

Play-by-play: Latest GFS run has ticked slightly south at hr 138.
Commentary: remember the early model runs of Maria took her into the Chesapeake Bay? Completely missed way south ended up recurving into the backside of Florida. So long range is almost useless to hang onto
edit: this is my post # 666. Wonder if that bodes ill?

This is our first time actually see snow, hopefully we all can squeeze some accumulation on the back end 

Cincy just switched to snow

Cincy sleet fest.. 

57 minutes ago, buckeye said:

thanks, let us know if we need a helmet or a shovel

Thinking helmet, complete sleet fest. 

1 minute ago, buckeye said:

actually a pretty pultry sleet storm for here all morning.   At least it's not pounding sleet, so I don't feel like I'm losing a ton of qpf to sleet.   The precip along the ohio river moving towards cincy is what to look out for.

I’ll keep you posted 5 minutes away from the river, sleet has picked up a bit 

Dropped from 45 degrees to 41 within a 3 hours, here in Cincy 

26 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

If my memory serves me correctly, the central axis of the heaviest snow was modelled to run through Valparaiso and South Bend on the globals. Then the hi-res models latched onto the north shift.

Considerable shift! Makes me wonder why we haven’t invested into a better “long range” solution? Heck, 48-72hrs isn’t asking much. Pretty sad we can’t determine within a 100 radius, whether your going to see 2ft of snow, or 1” of ice… 

8 minutes ago, snowman33 said:

Couldn't find the regular thread, but going off the GHD I weenie maps in there it looks like there was a bit of a north shift.

 

For GHD II, the Euro was south around this time.

 

Interesting! I’ve always wanted to track 48-72 hour “bull eyes” as in location areas, to see the actually verified. 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Read a story from my aunt.  One of her friends has a daughter who is in her 20s and has covid.  Healthy, no preexisting conditions, and she had a stroke.  Not definitively from covid but obviously have to strongly suspect that given the circumstances.

Or COVID showed a potentially life threatening issue while in her 20’s rather than her 40-50’s. COVID could of seriously save her life. As crappy as that sounds. 

4 hours ago, bl5585 said:

Plus you don't have to take off a mask to grocery shop. At a minimum people will take off their masks to eat for Thanksgiving.

Just like going to a restaurant? Somehow the risk magically goes away when I sit down? Now I can “take my mask off”? Meanwhile, I got the sick cook cooking my plate, the sick bartender making me a drink, just to have the sick waitress/waiter hand me my food and drink? Same applies when I’m at the grocery store. Sick individual, decides they don’t want the crappy stuffing anymore and puts it back on the shelve. I proceed to touch and purchase said crappy stuffing.Only to have the guy behind me coughing and not wearing a mask. Guess what, I’m now infected.  Is that a lot of “what if’s” sure it is, but don’t think the mask is the end all be all.? So what’s the plan? Hotdog or a laughing face? That should suffice. 

24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I strongly encourage you to study the data like we study weather data then maybe you will understand our concerns 

I think half the problem is with the unfortunate data we have. Now how do we handle said data? Considering we basically let our guard down for the second wave? Should we shut down world economies? Forget about all other medical conditions other than Covid? Encourage even more mental health deaths? I for one don’t have an answer. Honestly there isn’t a right answer to this problem, just a better course, of which history will tell I suppose. Is having a turkey dinner with your family irresponsible? Yes, but so is going to your local grocery store. Who am I to judge 

6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Where was the thunder snow at

Green township Cincinnati OH 45248 

Just now, buckeye said:

 

I’m a first timer! Pretty neat! Although may not end up with crazy totals, thisis pretty exciting 

Thunder snow!

About 10 miles from the river and we are seeing mix now

9 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Dry slotting.

Easy now. God help the Mets if this turn out to do nothing 

2 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Eric Elwell saying CMH should change over to snow between 7 and 8pm.

Nothing in Cincy no rain or anything. Calm before the storm?

3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Still rain and 33 here. Been raining all day, not a flake of snow.

This was expected... I think patience is our friend 

Noticeable change in the temperature in Cincinnati. Still rain but you can feel the temp difference 

Why wouldn't NWS at least issue an advisory for SW ohio Cincinnati area? They recently updated and still have it listed as a possible hazardous condition? 

This is a great run for Cincinnati! Might be able to get something out of this. 

5 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

He said it appears to be sw. So I'd assume he meant se. Thatd take me out if the snow. 0z only gave me 4" any more se on it would be a dud.

6 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

He said it appears to be sw. So I'd assume he meant se. Thatd take me out if the snow. 0z only gave me 4" any more se on it would be a dud.

I corrected. SE is correct 

50 minutes ago, buckeye said:

ukie goes from central KY/TN line to Philly.    Don't know what happens between there, if it doesn't climb north before heading east it's probably a good hit.  If it climbs north first, we probably taint.

Haven't seen snow map yet. But it appears to be s/w - CORRECTION SE 

Just now, pondo1000 said:

I think the FV3 is north. Trend so far not good on 12z suite

It appears the axis shifted and the low is stronger. Puts the low in the OV