Winter Man

5 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Are there a couple of radars down?

Virga, most likely.

Garbage

RGEM: Hold my beer.

GFS: No.

12 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Okay, I think he is a conman who bleeds idiots dry with terrible forecasts and denial of CC. He is a black eye of meteorology.

I took this guy seriously when I was like 13 years old.

2 hours ago, Chambana said:

Recap of this storm for Champaign 

1) Ice accretion early on Friday evening 

2) Saturday temps warm to the lower 40’s with 1.5” rainfall 

3) temps crash after precipitation ends causing flash freeze, with the cold snap on brown ground

4) the packers are in the NFC championship game

5) I hate this winter. It sucks. 

Every winter there sucks. I'm telling you, worst winter climate in North America. 

Just now, IWXwx said:

A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain.  However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint.  I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge.

On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight.

Agreed, someone should reach out to Levi...

Well it seems like this one can go either way for the LOT crew. Hopefully the thermodynamics work in our favor. It's certainty cold as hell out today.

Time for spring.

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Yet again it appears that some sort of cutoff will evolve right over N. IL. I fear this will be another nail biter

Almost 10 years into this hobby and I am immune from all pain after getting burned time and time again.

It's undeniable that the GFS won this storm. It has been showing the southern solution for days.

Have had flurries consistently the past two hours, along with a brief shot of heavier snow when the axis of a LE band passed through. About a tenth of an inch down.

4.4" call looking money.

36 and rain.

Final call 4.4" of snow IMBY.

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Beavis' doppelganger lol? The winter you describe sounds more like an average Kentucky winter than a Chicago winter. The midwest has some of the most changeable weather in north America. Edit - you must be south of Chicago if last 6"+ storm was 2015

I just graduated from UIUC in December - I've been in Champaign the past four winters except during the holidays when I would stay with my folks in the Chicago suburbs. I've had terrible luck, constantly being at the wrong place at the wrong time. 

1 minute ago, Snowstorms said:

It's been a couple years since we've had a proper storm. Therefore, trends would favour a weaker storm lol. 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/21Nov2015snowfall

This was the last time I was in a 6"+ storm. I was royally screwed in November 2018 when I left for Champaign one day before that storm since classes were starting. I've seen warning-level accums miss to the north, south, east, and west.

In general though winters at 40 degrees north in the Midwest just !@$%#ing suck. IMO, it's the worst climate in all of North America. 30s-40s and rain for four months of the year but you still get blasted with Arctic air and maybe a 1-3" clipper if you're lucky before it melts away a few days later.

I start work in a few weeks so I bet winter will blow its load as soon as I start commuting.

I'm ready for disappointment.

Rip city in Champaign, roads are already pretty bad.

Still some uncertainty, especially with the position of the deformation band Monday night into Tuesday.

25 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Looks like a solid shot from Springfield Illinois to Cleveland of 3-6" with some freezing rain for areas to the south of that. Not the biggest storm but definitely a disruptive weekday storm

Pretty darn good for this latitude.

I graduate from UIUC in a little over a week and I need that Champaign special on the 0z GFS. Lock it in!

Never thought I'd say this, but I'm glad it's 34 and rain at CMI. 

Light snow in Champaign. Should be on the edge of the heavier accums.

Getting absolutely crushed here in Champaign.