sakau2007

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range. 

that’s kinda my point. i get the idea of friction reducing wind speed… but the reality is this thing is now well inland...

and i’ll partially buy the reasoning that equipment fails (although over the last decade the number of storm chasers putting themselves in the worst areas makes me even somewhat skeptical of that) but what about now? where are 100+ mph sustained winds occurring? i doubt anywhere. gusts into the 80s or 90s? sure. sustained at 105 after 9pm? i doubt. 

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sorry for the drive-by as I have been focusing on the impacts of this rapidly deepening surface low in my local area, but agree with the consensus here... this setup looks like big problems, and I'll be surprised if we're debating a high risk bust this time.

I'm pretty sure there has not been a high risk issued in the history of high risks where people think we will be debating the busts in 24 hours time. That's kinda the point of the high risk -- the numbers are maxed out so the high risk goes up. Just my .02.

I'm still not completely overwhelmed by this setup, but the very high significant tornado index numbers across parts of AL/TN are certainly eyebrow raising. I'll be surprised if we make it through today without an EF3 somewhere.

My overall concern for this event continues to grow. I know the parameters aren't exactly the same, but this is as close to April 27, 2011 as I've seen since April 27, 2011 for MS/AL.

Just look at these STP values and tell me that doesn't bring back memories. Makes me shudder:

I get not wanting to be hyperbolic, but at this point emphatically saying this won't be like April 27, 2011 seems to be borderline irresponsible, no? And let's not forget this event looks like there will be prior convection. Some of the radar loops look eerily similar to me showing earlier rounds of convection that we aren't overly concerned about followed by outrageously high STP's later in the day. That is.... exactly what we were staring at on April 27 and the result was absolutely disastrous. The early morning event across Alabama was absolutely underwarned for until the event was occurring. I don't think the atmospheric paramaters were expected to be off the charts that morning (just as they aren't this time around) yet there were still dozens of tornadoes and a vicious line of storms. What is the risk something like that, even on a smaller scale, occurs? I haven't really heard that mentioned at all.

11 minutes ago, a5ehren said:

Spann has a different job than being technically correct on minor details that only weenies care about. He can’t just casually invoke 4/27/11 because people will flip their lids.

He is absolutely right to phrase things the way he did, and I can’t imagine any reason why arguing semantics is worth the time for either of you.

I think saying things like "Events like that happen once every 40 years" goes past being a minor detail. Also, saying April 27, 2011 is not showing up on the CIPS analogs is just... wrong. Out of what... 20,000+ days it has shown up as like the 4th, and 7th "best" analog on various runs. 

I'm with you that the overall tone of the post is correct. And that for every 50 high risk days, maybe only one will come together just perfect for a 1974/2011 type outbreak. And I do agree with you that he has a nearly impossible job of toeing the line between making people aware without worrying the weather-ignorant public unnecessarily. 

An analogy I would give is that the US coastline gets struck by a category 5 once every 30-40 years or so on average. If a cat 4 is churning in the Gulf where a favorable environment exists, it would be foolish to say "This won't be like Michael or Camille because events like that only happen once every few decades and it was just a couple of years ago since Michael". The parameters in MS are absolutely in April 27th territory. Now, obviously a lot can go "wrong" between now and then... but to use time between events as a reason that event A will not be like event B is just another take on the gambler's fallacy. 

I had to respectfully disagree with James Spann when he made the following post late yesterday afternoon:

 

Quote

I have received many messages today from people asking "will Sunday be like April 27, 2011?". Long time readers know my response...

Bad question. The answer is no; it doesn't show up in any analog; those type events happen once every 40 years or so. Every severe weather threat needs to be taken seriously; if there is only one tornado in the entire state it becomes YOUR April 27 if it comes down your street.

Using the excellent CIPS analogs site, the top two analogs for Sunday are...

*March 1, 2007. This event did produce one strong/violent tornado that moved through Enterprise, in South Alabama, killing 9 people, including 8 at Enterprise High School

*April 24, 2010. On this day 8 tornadoes touched down across Central Alabama, including one EF-3 that hit Parrish in Walker County.

But, every severe weather event is different, and just understand all of Alabama has a significant threat Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. No need to be overly anxious, just be prepared and we will get through it together.

And to that, I'd say "Bad answer".

I responded with the following:

Quote

I respectfully disagree with some aspects of this post. April 27th, 2011, *has* shown up as an analog to this upcoming event. That doesn't mean the outcome will be the same, but the big atmospheric markers are pegged nearly off the charts in MS, just as they were in MS/AL on April 27, 2011.

Also, violent outbreaks don't know when the last outbreak happened. James Spann has said on numerous occasions something along the lines of "Outbreaks like this occur once every 40 years" which is just... well... nonsense. Sure, the last 3 horrible outbreaks were in 1932, 1973, and 2011. But the next "40 year outbreak" could come any time. The atmosphere is not operating on a calendar. We need thousands of years of data to really know how often these types of outbreaks can be expected to occur. Perhaps over the long run we expect to see an outbreak like this every 5 or every 10 years and we have been exceedingly lucky over the last century. Or perhaps these events "should" strike more like once ever 150 years and we have been very unlucky in "recent" memory. Or perhaps we will average about 1 outbreak of April 27th scale every 40 years.

Regardless, giving people the idea that this won't be as bad because it's only been 9 years since the last "40 year outbreak" has to make anyone who knows anything about data and statistics a little sick.

Thoughts?

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Calm down son.  You think your king **** for making some edgy comments on an internet forum but your talking out your ass here.

For a "professional" you sure do a **** job of conversing.
 

I think deep down you know that I'm right and it is a lot easier to just go explosive on me than actually provide any data that indicates I even might be wrong.