TheDreamTraveler

9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

PPL estimates my power will be restored by 11pm on Valentines day. The heavy snow ripped the telephone line from the house to the pole. And I still hear trees cracking and breaking.

They gave me that exact same time estimation when my power went out a few hours ago. Hoping yours comes back sooner than later.

Lost power here for an hour. Had it flickering off and on repeatedly and I kept hearing a electrical buzzing outside each time it happened. Thank god it came back on just now I was ready for it to be out for a while lol. That snow looks heavy af

1 hour ago, paweather said:

There is our friend. How is your dual/triple/fourth personality doing? 

You doing okay?

Got a little bit of snow cover here but it's melting really fast. Cars covered and some of the grass is covered.

Maybe we'll luck out with some snow 2nd week in December? Still hard to know this far out but the chance of some colder than average temperatures might be on the menu

14 hours ago, paweather said:

Thanks ClimateChanger

Maybe I'm dumb but isn't that a good thing for snow chances? lmao. Literally why I posted it here since there's so much doom and gloom about this winter from some

Some slightly good snow news for winter potentially

If you're wondering why I don't see us getting much snow again this year this is why. Obviously there are still parts of the globe that are colder than average but this has been an unprecedented increase in global temps since June. I was really curious if this insane heat would survive until winter and well...looks like it still is. This only serves to reduce our chances of getting snow this winter. Not that we CAN'T get lots of snow this winter it's just all the extra heat really throws a wrench into our normal chances. I legitimately thought the insanely hot temps would have gone back down by now but it hasn't. Obviously things depend on local weather patterns and how storms and cold air align. My main point here is this type of global heat just reduces snow chances for many places. Maybe we'll luck out this year who knows.

Oh and the most mindblowing part about this heat? Most of this heat hasn't had much of an impact from the El Nino yet. The lag period we'll eventually feel from the heat globally from El Nino won't happen until 2024 lol so it's only going to get hotter

25 here right now. Waaay too chilly for me for November lol

3 hours ago, Voyager said:

If he's the future of this country, we are in so much trouble...

Every generation always says that about the previous generation and we usually end up fine lol. Also Twitter sustains itself off of negative reactions and outrage which is why the site always pushes things to people that make them mad or upset since it makes the most money. It also helps create this false perspective of how the real world really is hence the intense polarization that has developed over the years. I started using the site years ago and only recently noticed just how much mental harm it had done to me recently which is true of almost all social media. Seriously that site is so bad for your mental health if you don't know how to curate things and stay away from the unhealthy stuff. Especially after Musk's blunder buying the site the amount of misinformation and disinformation is the worst I have ever seen it to the point I actively stay away from all trending tabs now. And that doesn't even scratch the service of the site being flooded with so many AI bots that are now so real it is practically impossible to tell who's real or fake on that site anymore leading to malicious folks having immense power to manipulate society however they see fit. My point is social media is bad for you lol

Already 61 today. Another beautiful autumn day

We already had trick or treat here on thursday since this area always does it on the last thursday which imo I think is kinda dumb and should just be done on actual Halloween but that's how it was for me as a kid too. There were a ton of people here way more than I had expected.

8 hours ago, canderson said:

Where is October taking for all time warmest? It has to be up there. We have never not had to the on the furnace this late and it won’t be needed until at least next later next week . 

If you count all the following warm days 9 out of 31 days of October would be between 76-83 degrees and 12 days 70 or above for my town and similar for other areas nearby. That seems excessive to have so many days that warm in October. And what's crazier is there was a stretch of warmth in both the beginning and end of October which makes it more impressive. The next 3 days are going to be close or full on record breaking. The thing that makes this crazier is the fact this warmth lasts for days. It's normal to have 1 or 2 days get very warm around this time once in a while but when this happens now it happens for longer periods of time.

6 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Absolute nightmare fuel, going to bed expecting a moderate tropical storm and waking up to your home being ripped apart by a cat 5.

1920's level forecasting by the computer models. 

This really was like we went back in time with weather forecasting. This is how these powerful canes used to hit, with barely any warning. I'm really afraid the death toll is going to be very bad especially since this was a city. The use of the term nightmare scenario was 100% warranted here. I can't remember anything that has occurred like this in recent decades.

Trick or Treat is on Thursday here and it'll be close to 80 degrees. I can barely remember a single time as a kid when it was that warm. It was usually always pretty chilly but there were one or two times it wasn't that bad out...just not 80 degrees lol. Gonna feel bad for any kids who are wearing a heavy duty costume

Something I noticed was that the spotted lantern flies were not as bad this year as they were the year before. I was reading this article about how after the third year the population plummets. I wonder if it's due to their absurd numbers they just eat up the available food source which prevents as many appearing the years after? Certain trees here were covered in them but I didn't notice them as much this fall. Also I think the lantern flies are responsible for certain other insects being plentiful this year like wasps/hornets etc since those things not only eat the bodies of them but also eat the honeydew they produce. Definitely can't be a coincidence wasps exploded in numbers the season after we had so many lantern flies

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I've been asking about the volcanic analogs and if it's best to use them given we're talking about water and not sulfur...

We've never experienced this type of eruption in our recorded history so we're basically in uncharted territory in terms of what the long term effects could be. No analogs exist

Seriously not a fan of this heat right now. I took my AC out because I didn't think it'd get this hot again lmao especially since the part of the house I have my computer heats up like a mfer in the afternoon due to the sun angle. Also doesn't help how much heat my PC outputs since it's a gaming pc I built. It's actually crazy how much heat that adds to the room it's in. Does make it nice in the winter though

7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ll take my chances with a moderate El Niño this Winter!

A moderate El Nino is all but a guarantee this winter for sure. The thing is not all El Ninos and La Ninas are created equally. So I'm curious how this one will be for us. I'm just very nervous about a lot of the stuff I'm currently seeing. I did talk about how I think we might be leaving that period of some of the biggest snowstorms we've ever seen in such a short period of time which would suck for a lot of us if that ends up happening. Not that it won't keep happening but the frequency might be shortening. Obviously I don't want to be pessimistic but I'm just trying to be realistic lol the main reason I ever joined easternwx and this site was specifically due to huge snowstorms.

On 10/2/2023 at 12:36 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I've read of speculation that a kind of whip-lash at planetary scales (... like 'thermal elasticity')  recoiled when the La Nina basal state crossed some threshold on its way to its demise. And then en masse the entire system snapped very warm.

I don't know if I like that hypothesis.  I don't hate it ... but,  I don't see how that happens mechanically. It certainly sounds intriguing from a kind of Science Fictional passage along a holocaust theme.  There are no mechanisms in the atmospheric 'organic' mechanics to generate/add heat as such.  Heat has to be either given or taken through the evaporation/condensation of water vapor, or, through irradiance power of the sun.

The sun spends equal time on either side of the Equator.

Evaporation and condensation is effected by heat, but in either case, that state is static relative to the rate in which these global temperature surges took place - that doesn't seem to add up.

It's really weird... 

My immediate napkin logic wants to suggest that the El Nino is buried inside these changes that have been observed over these last 9 months - and by buried, I mean subsumed by them. In other words, not the cause. The last time there was a global temperature response that 'seemed' to be connected physically to a warm ENSO that even comes close to these last 9 months, was 1998 ( a "super nino" event).  But here's the thing ... that global spike in temperatures lagged the ENSO peak by some 6 months.  If using just the SST metric, according to CPC, the 1997-1998 El Nino peaked around November/Dec of 1997;  the thermal resonance was noted in the spring of 1998. 

The warmth we are observing all over the planet, air and sea, predates the onset of the El Nino.

That's why I wonder if the current arriving mode of ENSO is really driving this warmth at all. It seems the warmth we have seen materialize since May has/is engulfed any El Nino to the point where geo-physically parsing out how much is contributory to how much is tantamount to not likely to be determined with a whole helluva lot of confidence.  The causality/circuitry would have to include too much supposition for certitude.

OR, here's an idea...  there is indeed a separate systemic response that has caused all this warming, and the ENSO has yet to add too it.

I'm really surprised the NASA study about Hunga Tonga's eruption adding 10% of the entire worlds water vapor high into the stratosphere doesn't get mentioned more. The study even states that the water vapor will spike the global temperature, we just don't know by exactly how much. The added water vapor will also take 5-10 years to fully dissipate so that is definitely helping with what's happening combined with features like El Nino etc. Remember no volcano in our records has ever ejected such high amounts of water vapor like this one did and NASA calls its effects unprecedented. Tonga was also the most powerful eruption since the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa. People forget that there is a lag period with volcanic eruptions and the effects are not truly felt until 1-3 years later depending on variability's. If you all remember Mt Pinatubo in 1991 it took 2 years for its effects to fully be realized. Around June when the warmth really spiked was around the time all of Hunga Tonga's water vapor had completely encircled the globe since it took 1.5 years for it to completely spread. 

Really wondering what's going to happen for winter this season. The El Nino is not acting like a typical El Nino which is evident by the very active atlantic hurricane season. And it's not just the amount of storms formed but how many powerful long lasting storms have formed. Very unusual given the setup. Another thing to note is the absurd warming that started this summer in June and has been continuing into October with no signs of reverting. I saw a tweet discussing how the warmth occurring this summer is extraordinary because we usually see this type of extreme warming in the winter, not summer, because winters warm much more than summers do. Right now this heat occurring is almost off the charts which is most likely a combination of human induced climate change, Hunga Tonga and the El Nino all colliding at once among other smaller factors. If we end up having another snowless winter I'm going to be a bit concerned lol

Not a fan of the upcoming heat. Good news is after this heat is over we should go straight to sunny days in the 60s...hopefully lol. This better not be another October where it's ungodly hot the first half and then cold the second half

12 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Here's an example of the problem with these publications.  You don't know if you're getting the FULL story. Like I said, everybody in journalism has an agenda and "scientists" are on the take too. Not all of them, but nobody knows who is and who isn't. And you don't have to read the entire article, just what the Hopkins earth and climate scientist said to get the point.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-scientist-left-out-full-truth-climate-change-wildfire-study-published

Well it's not the publication but the paper they're reporting on. I do agree with some publications and people having their own agendas but saying that and then linking fox news is some ironic stuff lol. I don't really trust any mainstream media and even media that looks independent online has a ton of money being funneled in from specific groups or people. The full paper does exist out there to read in its entirety without interference from publications like this. I just went out found a publication to make it easier to show you guys what the paper was about lol

Since we're talking about climate change and its effects I'd like to present to you all some very interesting information that recently came out. Apparently all the insane warming we've been experiencing might not be solely caused by humans but rather by massive influxes of methane coming from the tropics since 2006. Humans are still contributing to the warming and the paper that presents this information even said we don't fully know if this methane issue is the main cause due to the fact we still don't understand why this process is happening. I'm also bad at explaining things so I'll post some information you can all read. It's interesting. Just please don't take this as full proof that humans aren't the main cause. We still don't fully understand everything that is happening. This would help explain why warming has gone off the rails compared to pre-2000 levels

https://www.space.com/climate-change-termination-event-end-ice-age

On 9/24/2023 at 5:24 PM, nycwinter said:

i think as of right now idalia will be the only storm to be retired..

Idalia might not have even been a major when it made landfall. It was one of the most hyped up storms I've seen in years that did way less damage than what was forecast due to it rapidly weakening hours before landfall. There really wasn't any widespread catastrophic damage to warrant it being retired. It also helped it hit one of the least populated areas of Florida. I'd be surprised if it got retired.