TheDreamTraveler

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Breaking news: the braindead are now calling for season cancel all over Twitter and storm 2 k

We go through this every year pretty much when it hits July/Early August people just start calling the season cancelled because for some reason they expect storms to form in June and July lol. Season doesn't truly start until middle/late August but I guess you can't get it through peoples dense heads no matter how many times you explain to them. I guess that's why people end up believing other stupid things no matter how much proof you show them. Once they are decided on something it's very hard to change their perspective.

3 hours ago, canderson said:

A stray shower maybe in an hour but a huge bust today/tonight here. 

The storms curved and angled slightly over. Been pouring heavily here now for a while. I thought we were gonna miss it too earlier

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

One of the biggest anomalies is how the Southeast, US (north of Florida) has stayed shielded from landfalling tropical systems, since year 2000, when the Atlantic activity has been well above average during that time. 

Until last year, that was because of a trough pattern over the East in the late Summer.. then last year a heat ridge developed for the first time in a long time and stayed there for 2 months.. finally in September the pattern broke down, and it got cooler in the east, when tropical activity started heating up, peaking in October. It will be interesting to see if we see some semblance of last Summer this year, and if it may time better with Atlantic tropical activity. 

Besides Irene and Sandy in 2011/2012 the east coast really hasn't been hit by anything major. There was the scare with Florence which was forecast to come in as a category 3 or 4 but then weakened dramatically before landfall. Then there was Joaquin in 2015 that almost pulled another Sandy. Then Matthew and Dorian coming right up to the east coast of Florida but turning at the last second. So many close call examples that it's amazing none of them struck at full power.

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z GEFS has a significant increase in the number of members with a tropical cyclone in the W Caribbean next week….interesting. Another TC or two this year would not be surprising with the still very warm W Caribbean and when looking back at the last 30 years or so.

Would be wild if we got a December system this year. 2020 and 2021 didn't even have that. Quite rare to have anything develop. Last time we had anything develop was a subtropical storm in December during 2013's season which was a very quiet year overall. You then have to go back to 2007, 2005, 2004 and 2003 for December systems.

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward.

Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development,  advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done. 

Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north.

lol 12z GFS has that hurricane in the Caribbean bottoming out to 915mb on Nov 16th. Definitely seems like there's a signal for something to develop though but that's still 6 days or so before it shows anything actually developing.

12z GFS is pretty wild. Has at least 4 systems develop through the entire run and possibly a 5th storm lol

It's possible we get to our S named storm in the next week or two. Maybe the models really weren't wrong about this potentially being hyperactive. Obviously depends if all 3 areas develop but still.

And now the global operational 0z GFS just drops the hurricane in the Caribbean completely lol

51 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Thought these graphics were interesting & impressive in regards to Helene:

 

 

 

I thought so too. That Hazel graphic really shows how intense and unique of a storm it was. You rarely get a strong hurricane like that that late in the season barreling up the whole east coast with winds that extreme that far inland and north. Though it transitioning also helped the wind speeds too.

5 hours ago, Windspeed said:

ACE will be over 140 points heading into the second weekend of October. It's quite obvious now that if the Atlantic Basin had produced only a few hurricanes during the stretch of prolonged and below normal intraseasonal quiet, we would we would finish at hyperactive values. Granted, a hyperactive season is still possible given a few strong Caribbean hurricanes through November, and we have seen activity into November in recent years. However, it is more likely we will not hit the lofty preseason targets. We are, however, going to finish above normal.

The ACE metric and total number of named storms do not necessarily weigh on how bad the season has been. The CONUS has experienced a nightmarish tropical cyclone season with five landfalling hurricanes. Six is the record (2020, 1985, and 1886). However, 2024 landfalls have been deadly and expensive. After Beryl devestated the Grenadines and impacted Jamaica and the Yucatán, it went on to produce notable damage in the Houston-Galveston metropolitan region. Francine caused significant flood damage in the western New Orleans metro. Helene, not withstanding significant surge impacts from Tampa to Steinhatchee, was among the worst inland wind and flooding TCs in American history and will no doubt prove to be the costliest TC on record because of it. Helene will also end up among the deadliest for the US due to the catastrophic events that unfolded in the southern Appalachians. Though Milton can be considered a very lucky impact, barely missing Tampa Bay to the south and avoiding a catastrophic landfall, it was still a powerful system that flooded coastal shoreline communities and has wreaked havoc inland across the peninsula with damaging winds in the Tampa, Pete and Sarasota metros; furthermore, inflicting significant damage to inland trees and power grid infrastructure, plus significant inland fresh water flooding. Estimates for the 2024 season's price tag may push a quarter of a trillion dollars and go down as the costliest season in US history.

Edit: You know it's been a bad season when you overlook a hurricane landfall. I didn't even include Debby's impacts, which weren't insignificant, causing fresh water flooding from Sarasota County, Fl., to the central and northern Appalachians and areas in the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Ohio Valley. Debby also spawned an EF3 tornado in the Carolinas. Of course, the tornado impacts from Milton are still being assessed, but it's looking like it may have spawned numerous SIG-tors. I suppose I could go on and on, but it's clear this season has been an awful one for millions of US citizens and folks in the Caribbean. Hopefully, the worst is over, but there are signs in the midrange that suggest we may not yet be finished.

This season has been one of the weirdest ones I can think of. So many things have seemed out of sync. From the formation of Beryl in late June becoming the earliest cat 5 on record and the strongest storm that far east in the Atlantic that early in the season beating many records. And it went through the graveyard in early July as a category 5. Then things became very quiet. 8/20 through 9/23 which is the climatological peak of the season was the quietest stretch of ACE accumulation since 1994 which is to this day one of the quietest seasons recorded. Then everything that happened with the African monsoon ITCZ during August/September breaking a record for being so far north which was cutting off tropical waves so they could not develop. Now we're in October and suddenly the Atlantic thinks it's early September with three hurricanes spinning at once a few days ago with 2 at the same time both breaking records at the same time being the most powerful hurricanes that far east in October. And I guess we can include how bizarre Milton's track was. Either way it's been a very strange season for sure.

Seeing this thing still as a category 5 when we're this close to landfall is very concerning. I know it's going to weaken but it really is going to be a nail biter seeing how much it weakens. Intensity forecasts have always been the hardest thing about hurricanes. Forecasting track has gotten exceptionally well over the past 2 decades but intensity still has a lot to work on.

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

wow, sub 900mb is just so rare. Only 5 ever to do it in the Atlantic right? 

Rita was 895mb in the Gulf and is currently the strongest recorded for that area

1 minute ago, jrips27 said:

NHC website appears to be offline momentarily

Yep noticed that too. It's been offline the past 10-15 minutes. It's been a while since a hurricane was forecast to take a direct hit on a city this populated.

33 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

There will 100% be an ERC (or 2) before Florida. One thing about that is a larger hurricane will be much more immune to negative environmental factors, like shear and dry air intrusions. That might be the difference in global and hurricane models as it relates to pre landfall weakening 

Bigger hurricanes aren't always more immune to negative environmental factors. Sometimes it can be a detriment to their health allowing them to suck in more dry air and experience shear just due to how big they are. Smaller hurricanes can sometimes weasel their ways into smaller more favorable pocketed environments if they're lucky enough.

The GFS is just insistent on Milton striking a bit north of Tampa. Every run has had it either north or striking directly so far.

The west coast of Florida just can't catch a break the past 3 years with Ian, Idalia, Helene and now Milton. Though Idalia was definitely a lot weaker than people originally thought at landfall at least. I wouldn't bank on any sure intensity ideas until we're a day or two from landfall. Hurricane intensity is the hardest part of forecasting a hurricane.

Of course they're only going to go to 155mph lol. Would be pretty wild to see two category 5's this year. Beryl being the earliest that far east and Kirk being the strongest this far east this late in the season

The GFS sure seems adamant on another hurricane landfalling in the same location as Helene multiple runs in a row. Would be absolutely awful if it ends up anywhere close to there. Then take into account Idalia hitting near that same area last year? Crazy.

Basically the worst case scenario is unfolding and we still have a few more hours to go.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1839357344716832866

I feel like people forget that Helene will still be a strong storm just due to its monster size. Hurricane Ike looked like was a lot 'weaker' when it made landfall but it caused much more damage just due to its huge size compared to a smaller storm of its strength. Helene will be more destructive than a typical smaller hurricane at this category. Just because the wind speeds aren't super high the low pressure and large size/wind field are going to cause much more damage. I feel like people focus way too much on the max wind speed and what category the storm is when there's more that factor into its power and damage overall.

The wind field on this thing is absolutely massive. This thing is gonna be a beast in size once it gets built up.

When was the last time we saw a September this inactive, 2014? We still have half of the month to go but things aren't looking too good. Still could change come end of September into October but I'm really starting to doubt a sudden uptick happening anymore

Definitely one of the more interesting seasons we've had in a long time. A record breaking category 5 at the beginning of July that smashed basically every single record known to us and then...nothing. Even into the peak of the season where we were forecast to have a very hyperactive season. I'd love to know all the ins and outs in depth of why this is happening. I've read some thoughts on it but I'm sure there's more things. I swear I see people say "oh the waters are warm its gonna be active!!" even though you can have a dead season with record warm waters if other factors don't line up. The atlantic hurricane mechanisms are very deep and varied.