uncletim

On 4/28/2024 at 9:24 PM, mreaves said:

Oh yeah, I forgot about Granville. Hazen’s Notch is pretty but it’s not “spectacular”.  242 past Jay is “notchy” feeling. There is a gulf down near Ludlow and Chester that gets pretty tight. 

The one south of Ludlow I think is Proctorsville Gulf on 103.

Fun to check all these out on Streetview. Hazen's Notch road reminds me of Stratton/Arlington road in the south.

Smuggs story. First time I was there was over 25 years ago and we passed a small sign on the road that just said "Bingham Falls For Sale". Intrigued by the concept of a waterfall for sale, my buddy and I pulled over and walked down what was at that time a narrow path to the falls. A good way down the path we were blocked by, of all things, a pickup truck in the middle of the trail. It was clear that someone had driven down the trail, encountered a fallen log, and with no possibility of backing up just abandoned the truck. I often wondered how long the truck was there and how it was removed. It was surprising that it could have gotten as far as it did given how narrow the trail was and there no way it a commercial tow could get to it. Not too mention what possessed the driver to try in the first place...

On 3/15/2024 at 10:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

I have never been skiing...I'm not sure I've ever been in any kind of elevation at all, actually. So I'd be a complete novice! I am not at all athletic, and balance is a bit questionable...but it's something I'd be willing to dip my toe in (although given the prices mentioned here...a trip out west ain't happening any time soon, lol)

OK, if you want to give downhill a try, here's my advice, which others I'm sure can add to. Don't go out west just to try to ski. It's pricey, to say the least, and you may find you really don't like it. Maybe the first thing you should do is - find someone to go with. Not many people just make a decision on their own to go by themselves and start skiing - most have friends or family and it's a lot more fun. The other person or people don't even have to be skiers, which might be even better because you're all in the same boat trying something new. It may seem obvious, but take a lesson. Ski resorts have instructors that specialize in "never-evers" of all ages. The first time, it's probably best to just go locally to Liberty, Roundtop or Whitetail. You absolutely do not have to make a major trip to a "big resort". If you have flexibility, try to pick a sunny but cold, calm day. Unfortunately, as we have all discussed here ad nauseam, these are getting rarer and rarer around here. You don't need to buy any equipment or even clothing in advance, everything you need can be rented at the slopes in a package. If you really want to see snow cover, you can go by car to northern New England, but what will happen when you are there is still a bit of a crapshoot. Last year during 3 days in March in Vermont, we had 37 inches of snow. This year first week in March it rained almost every day, but fortunately not all the time, so we still skied. And Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are beautiful places in the winter with plenty of other activities. If you find downhill is not for you, you can do X-country, which is a lot easier and cheaper just to "go out and do it".

And don't let a "not athletic" self-image deter you. I started in my 30s and no one has ever called me "athletic". I may not be very good, but I think being out in the mountains in the winter is magic. My father started after he retired in his 60s and went many times to New England and even out west. Had a great time with it for years.

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How much does a ski trip out west cost?

(Getting off-topic here, mods please move this to banter if appropriate…)

Here’s the the operative question: do you ski at all - and by “ski” in this case, I mean downhill as opposed to x-country? Have you ever been skiing? If you haven’t, and I get the feeling that’s the case, then I think many members of this forum, including me, would be happy to give advice on the best approach to getting started. Skiers tend to be evangelists for the sport, and the thing we most want to avoid is for first-timers to have a bad first day and get turned off, which can easily happen. Having a fun first day, even if you’re falling all over the place, is the key. 

On 3/8/2024 at 7:47 PM, WxUSAF said:

 

Would love to see this go back a couple of decades further. Growing up in Faifax County in the sixties and early seventies, I learned to ice skate and never was on a rink until my last couple of years in high school. Ponds froze for at least a handful of weeks most winters. The other reason I would like to see it go back further is to see how those late seventies winters look compared to earlier. Was that period as anomalous in context of the previous couple of decades?

On 2/20/2024 at 1:52 PM, WEATHER53 said:

See I’ve provided  that about 5 times and even in last 36-48 hours after the most recent 6-120 hour bust but you all won’t read it. You flare up instead almost as if addicted 

SO For one last time 

Ditch the 7+ . A lot of extended weather is corrupted for agricultural and oil futures advisements

Stop looking at weather through a microscope. It does not enhance the resolution but rather blurs it. 5 miles by 5 miles is more than enough of a close up, really 10x10.  The closer up you zoom that more the errors rapidly multiply..

Go with less calculus and more AI stipulated analog composition 

Begin to consider that earthquakes,volcanoes and huge tidal waves actually may have shifted things in some way.  Lord knows plenty buy  into gas stoves and cow farts as our ruination and the things I mentioned are 20,000X stoves and cows. 
 

if one is wedded to all is just fine now then sally forth. I recognize that to not be true and yes I say so and it bothers the huggers real bad but I have had and  do right now have my suggestions for alternatives 

 I’m not the genius who invented models so maybe go to some other real smart hands on the controls guys who actually want a better forecasting science 

 

 

I think this is what W53 refers to. 

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I usually focus on learning how to stop properly pretty fast, depending on the balance of the student. If they can’t stay on their feet more than 10 feet it doesn’t matter much. But as soon as they can glide a bit I start on that.  I think spending a lot of time in snow plow is detrimental to progressing. Once you can stop it makes it easy to accelerate learning of technique because you’re more comfortable. 
 

It’s very similar to the mechanics of turning. Only you have to commit completely and lean into it.  Get all your weight into the inside edge of the downhill ski and dig it in. It’s a feel thing. Once you get it you can feel the friction on the inside of the downhill boot and manipulate it. Put some weight into the edge to control speed. More to stop. Takes several tries at medium speed. Enough to get the feel but slow enough the inevitable falls don’t hurt too much. But it’s worth it because once you acquire that skill it’s applicable to many more as you progress and your comfort level goes way up knowing you can control your speed and stop!  

Hmm - how about an Amwx ski day at Liberty or Whitetail. I’d be down for that.

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I’m in the same boat with the kids.  About 1000 ft seems to be the magic number in southern VT. Above that does very well and holds snow.  Below and you’ll be disappointed often. There are a few towns high enough to do good like Grafton. But you really want to look for communities outside the river valleys most towns are in. There is a community just east of Magic Mountsin along 121 between Windham and North Windham at about 1500 feet that gets dumped. There is another along rt 9 east of Bennington next to Big Pond. Someplace like that.  But you have to wait for a property to come on the market. Or buy a plot and build. But that area is probably perfect for me. Big storms. Not too crazy cold like further north. Very nice summers. Snowmobiling. Skiing. Hiking. Fishing. Not crazy far away. 

The “chain-up” lots on the east side of Bennington and west side of Wilmington on rt 9  are promising indicators for sure. Usually only see that out West!

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I thought DMV was expensive, but VT isn't that much cheaper. Out west, same.

I think prices will go down eventually, at least in ME. Any kind of fluctuation tends to be exaggerated there because of the distance from population centers. Also, historically the length and depth and darkness of winter in the higher elevations in ME tends to be discouraging. Fun at first, but it gets old for most folks after a few years. Even Squire Rangeley, the town namesake, said the hell with this and moved down to Virginia after several years. That may be changing though; last several winters even there have been significantly more moderate (getting back to thread relevance!).

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

I was looking at that first circle over southern Vermont as well. Mainly checking Zillow for real estate prices (casually), but couldn't find a whole lot of listings that aren't down in the valley. 

Not that I'm planning to move in the short term - I'm staying put for now. There are more important things in life than frozen ice crystals falling from the sky... like friends and family, daughter gets to see her grandma once a week, etc. 

But if my mom moves out of the DMV, or daughter leaves the house after HS, or otherwise a strong reason for us to move, that's one area I'll be looking at. Or go out west. 

Only problem is... by then, I may be too old to shovel 3 feet of snow. Unless I keep hitting the gym and stay in shape and not allow myself to let go.

Definitely stay out of the Bennington/Manchester valley in VT. Not that they don’t get more snow than us, obviously, but it would be massively frustrating to me to look down at brown ground and know that 5 miles away and a thousand feet higher there is a 2 foot snowpack.

But it’s pricey. Pandemic induced massive changes in the real estate market, particularly in sourthern VT. Anything decent up on the plateau closer to ski areas is extremely expensive, especially in areas closer to Manchester, like Winhall, etc. The situation is not so severe in NW Maine; non-waterfront is still non-crazy, pricewise. Choose properties carefully - Rangeley area has a severe labor shortage, so building or major renovations are on a multi-year waiting list. I suspect the situation is similar in VT. 

Almost unbelievable. At 11pm the night before, it had stopped, we had about 4 inches on the ground and TV forecasters said it was over. When I got up the next morning, not particularly late, it had already stopped again. I measured 23 inches in Springfield. Rates must have been incredible.

5 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

To a point, yes. It isn't a MASSIVE increase, but in marginal situations it can snow 2,3 4 inches up there and rain or white rain down in the valleys. In a bigger event it can be a 10-20% increase in totals from lowland areas. The biggest difference I've seen (and I'm close to the airport at Hot Springs (3700-4200 elevation) is when we get ice storms, or close calls for one. Then I've seen the parkway and the airport be in 1/2 inch of ice and hardly anything low. As far as moisture, usually the peaks of the BR and Allegheny's wring out anything either east or west depending on storm track, 90% of the time they are wetter than lower areas that get down sloped. 

Interesting. It has always struck me how dramatic the difference is in both temperature and precipitation between the Allegheny Front and the ridges immediately to the east, although my familiar reference points are a bit further north toward Canaan and into Maryland. Not that much difference in elevation but a totally different climate over a few air miles and one deep valley. Snowshoe/Canaan are a different animal from Wintergreen was what I was thinking.

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow nice info!  Congrats on finding a nice place.  I guess Wintergreen, Massanutten or even Snowshoe are within reasonable reach for a snow fix?

Do Wintergreen/Massanutten get appreciably more snow than the lowlands? Yes, higher altitude, colder, but also seems drier, especially up on top of the Blue Ridge.  On the other hand plenty of artificial for skiing if that will do the trick!

Starting in Chevy Chase at the bottom of Rock Creek Canyon. 
39/23

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

To my eyes, it's pretty simple. This covers it in one image. Snowed when neg and failed all else. Look at the size of the + peaks and how bad 14 day guidance missed the moves. All our good long range looks had nice blocking that looked stable. Ground truth was anything but. It fought us start to finish and tossed some bones. Matches our emotions perfectly. Lol. 

How could we have seen this in advance? Well, you can't. AO/NAO domain space is inherently volatile in the winter. 2 week forecasts are often terrible. 2 months? Idk, is that a model fail or consensus analysis being to confident in what "should happen"?. 

Blocking set up in early Dec and the northern tier got snow then it literally collapsed in epic proportions. Going from -3std to +3std in 10 days is not a sign of a blocky winter. It's the opposite. Hitting +3 is December alone is often ominous. I held out hope because it was way early and stable blocking is a 30-45 day thing and not 90+. 

Dec AO finished with a mean -.2. January did the same. That data goes against all snowy/blocky winters in any enso. The repeat -ao collapse in Jan was my personal dagger and that's why i went quiet. By that point i figured no matter how good things look down the line, ground truth will end up "un-sync'd" and disappointing from a big storm perspective. I felt strongly that we would get more snow and that a big storm is always possible, I just could no longer engage in big storm talk unless the signal was strong inside of 10 days. I also didn't want people jumping on me for canceling winter. Adjusting thoughts lower is far from canceling but is often synonymous lol.

A typical blocky/snowy Nino will have at least month with an AO below -1.0 and another not far behind. Had that transpired (IMHO only), this winter would have had a different personality and vibe. 

I'm not denying climate evolving in any way and I don't want to have that talk. I just don't agree with how this winter in a vacuum signals a change to future ninos. The problem in my eyes is one that plagues us often. If we can't get the AO to cooperate, something else has to overwhelm. Like the epo in 2013-15. But at the end of the day, we need the AO to work for us or it's always a big struggle. This year highlights that well.

Thanks everyone for this discussion - much appreciated.

I wish there was a way to look up this "forecast vs. observed" historically - if there is, I haven't found it. I'm curious to know how the forecasts from 2010 tracked with eventual observations. I recall clearly that even at the beginning of the fairly extended January thaw that winter the strongest voices here (Eastern back then?), such as Wes, DonS and a couple of others, were rock solid in their opinion that the pattern would return to a snow favorable situation. The positive AO was slight and very short-lived. Were long-range models more on target with pattern recognition that winter, or did Wes & Co have faith in the "El Nino seasonal" progression?

7 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

Wasn't easy to find, that's for sure -- second IMO only to your video of the Hitler rant about no snow. 

 

Tracker’s Hitler rant = GOAT. Watched it again and again.

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s ok it gets us with the next one. Pattern is loaded on both. Today was good trends across guidance imo. 
 

Off to sleep. Driving to here in the morning. 

If the snow won’t come to you…

Could be somewhere near Newfane?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Reality is what it is. It’s been getting warmer. We don’t have to debate why or if it’s our fault since those issues have become politicized. But it’s warmer. That’s just a fact.  It’s not impossible for us to be cold. But it’s harder since at any given moment much less of Earth is cold than it used to be. So the probabilities continue to stack more and more against us. Why is that controversial?  Thermometers seem like a pretty basic concept to me. 

This. With my very uneducated eyes, I see this again and again on the global temp anomaly maps; the locations may shift around, but the ratio of red to blue remains the same. Even more depressing is that the anomalies are defined by only the last 30 (already warm) years, if I understand correctly. If I am wrong, please say so - it will give me some hope!

23 hours ago, gonegalt said:

Ash is my dominant burn these days. All summer and fall I sliced and diced a bunch I dragged up from down slope around the ponds. So easy to split too- 16" sticks make short work on my hand splitter. Tractor bucket load a day for 3 months and I'm set with 5 cords in my basement and 1 cord down at the tree house. Harvested 3 of those cords here- about 50/50 maple/ash.

Got a deal on 3 cord of seasoned birch so got 3 cords of that. Birch is mid-soft wood in my book. Burns well and the bark is wonderful good for starter though after October there's no need for starter when the fire is always going in the house.

My hottest burns though are beech and maple. Normal delivered mix up here is 80-85 pct maple w/ remainder birch, beech and ash. Mix varies by woodlot.

Burning ash now down at the tree house. Got a smoker down here that I burn maple in so I use the ash inside and smoke with the maple weekly outside in attached wood/smoke shed I built on this summer. Going through a lot of wood this year I think, but the ribs...

When you say “hand splitter” do you mean one of those hydraulic ones with the two handles? If so, are you happy with it? Been looking at those for a couple of years.

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

My guess would be that storm tracks would be shifted north. But I have no way, or resources, of proving this hypothesis.

Ahh, more good news! 

From what I can glean from these studies with my limited knowledge, they appear to be based on correlations of precipitation with predicted atmospheric warming. However, if the ocean currents change (gulf stream, etc.), wouldn’t that result in substantially altered storm tracks? I’m sure that there must be studies on this (not that I could understand them!).

Rangeley was hit very hard Tuesday evening. Not liking the incoming radar at all. Trying to decide where to move the car to be sure I can get out if more driveway/road washes away. 

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Whatever you do, don’t end up in a precip hole like @EastCoast NPZ or torchy low elevation spot for snow.

I need a good place to chase when the next region wide blizzard arrives  

Go a little east for Parr’s Ridge! 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Glad to hear that! I'm also glad this is finally something we can live with and it not be as bad when you get it. (Had it back in the summer and it was kinda like a slow-moving cold). Didn't need any meds or anything! Again, Glad you're on the mend--cheers (although I don't drink, lol)

Very generally, I agree with this, but I will toss in a word of caution. We’ve had Covid flying through my workplace for a couple of weeks now. I was an “early adopter”, unfortunately. It was passed along very easily, and one of my colleagues described it as “like flu, the worst sinus infection ever and being hit by a truck all at once”, which aligns with my ongoing experience. Maybe we had a bad strain in our group, as I also have several friends who have had very mild cases. Just a reminder that it is not always just a cold, at least not yet. Stay safe.

9 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I got it at a CVS drive thru. Set an appt and check the boxes for Covid and flu. Then you drive up, they give you a kit, you gouge out your eyeballs from the inside of your nose, drop the Qtip in a solution, seal it, drop in a bag, and drop the bag in a metal box. The results came back negative for flu A and B, whatever that means, and positive for Covid. And I think it has to be a PCR Covid test and not the quick antigen. I’m only guessing but I think the flu test was an option because my test was sent to a lab (Quest).

And yes, my experience has been much more mild than others. God knows who Her wimps are. 

Thanks, and be healthy soon.

7 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

This is a little funny. I just got a call from my pharmacist telling me that the flu shot that I got with my Covid booster back in October was stored out of temperature range so it affected the resistance.  She added that the Covid vaccine was fine and I’m eligible for a new flu vaccine.

I told her that ironically, I’m sick now, got tested on Tuesday. and my flu tests came back negative but I have Covid!

Life is full of jokes.

 

So you got a flu test and Covid test at the same time? Clinic or doc’s office?
Your Covid sounds mild - hope it stays that way!